I always have to remember not to anticipate a change in trend, but to wait for the actual signal. On Monday, the QQQQ went to the edge of support and held. There were 19 new highs and 8 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Monday. Only 3 of the new highs were on my IBD100 lists: VPRT, QSII and NPK. I have been writing about QSII for weeks. It broke out of a three year base in April and is at an all-time high. I own QSII. I also have a position in QLD, the ultra long QQQQ ETF. I intend to sell cash-secured puts in my IRA in early June if this up-trend remains intact.
Dr. Wish
Market up-trend in doubt; mainly in cash
The QQQQ is resting right on support. A decline on Monday would signal to me the beginning of a new short term down-trend. There were only 7 new highs and 8 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday. GOLD broke to an all-time high last week and GLD, the gold ETF, closed back above its 10 week average. This is an ominous sign, with the dollar in a down-trend. Buying stocks at new highs may not be a good idea now. Friday was the 42nd day of the current QQQQ short term up-trend. The Worden T2108 is now down to 79%. And most troubling, only 24% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have a MACD above their signal line.
A lot of my cash secured puts expired on Friday. I am going to wait to take on new positions in June options around June 1. Better to be defensive now and not give back all of the profits made since the March bounce. I am mainly in cash again.
QQQQ short term up-trend in jeopardy, completed 41st day
My technicals have weakened significantly. There were only 7 new highs and 8 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Thursday. The QQQQ short term up-trend, now in its 41st day, will end if the index cannot hold current levels. QQQQ is riding right on support. Meanwhile, the Worden T2108 indicator is now below 90%, after several weeks above that level. Options expire Friday, and I will wait for June 1 to write new puts if the up-trend holds.