Dr. Wish

While the short and long term market trends remain up, one reason for caution is the extreme bullish sentiment.   The Investors Intelligence poll now shows 58.8% bulls and only 20.;6% bears.   Readings close to 60% bullish often occur near market tops.   When I got back into the market last September, there were less than 30% bulls, and this statistic made me   confident of my wading back in on the long side. So, we are probably close to at least a minor top. The key is to wait for a definitive signal.   Break downs in some leading stocks have already occurred, as seen in CMG, BIDU and NFLX.   When AAPL finally cracks I will be expecting a market decline.   For now, with the GMI and GMI-R at their maximum levels, I remain long. One RWB stock at all-time highs is ODFL. Note that all of the short term weekly averages (red lines) are well above the rising longer term averages (blue lines).

All of my GMI and GMI-R indicators remain positive.   I have therefore been riding QLD for a long time.   QLD strives to rise (or fall) twice the amount that QQQQ does.   I typically accumulate my position in stages once the QQQQ short term up-trend turns positive.   When it turns negative, I phase into QID, the inverse QQQQ ultra ETF, which aims to rise twice as much as the QQQQ declines. I accumulate my position in stages so as to reduce my risk if the market suddenly changes its trend. Since the start of the current QQQQ short term up-trend on November 19, the QQQQ has risen +4.6%, while the QLD has risen +9.7%.   The more volatile 3X technology bull ETF, TYH,   has risen +14.1% during the same period. It is often easier and more profitable to just ride these ultra index ETF’s than to attempt to find an individual stock that will beat them. It all depends on whether one is   in the market to   look smart or to make money–the two are often mutually exclusive endeavors.