Dr. Wish

The QQQQ completed the 8th day of its short term down-trend on Thursday.   In that period the QQQQ has fallen -4.8%, the SPY by -3.6% and the DIA by -3.5%. These indexes are down even more from their February closing highs (QQQQ – 7.2%, SPY   -4.9% and DIA -4.8%).   Of course, the inverse ETF’s advanced greatly during this period. Since I identified the QQQQ short term down-trend as beginning on March 8,   TYP has increased by +18% and   SQQQ by + 15%. I remain mainly in cash and in some QID in my IRA trading account.   The longer term trends of the QQQQ, SPY and DIA remain in a Stage 2 up-trend.

I was looking at the daily new high list from Thursday and   noticed an incredible cup-with-handle break out formation.   When it announced earnings a few days ago, AIRM broke out of a beautiful pattern to an all-time high on daily volume which was many times its average volume. I will keep an eye on this stock for a possible purchase when the market down-trend ends.

AIRM is also an RWB rocket stock. Click on weekly chart to enlarge.

The down-trend continued and the T2108 fell to 28% on Wednesday, not far from the area where bottoms occur. I remain in cash and in QID until the trend turns up. With the T2108 near oversold territory this is not the time for me to add to my short positions.

By the way, LULU, which I have written about several times, has held support during this decline.   Note the daily chart below. (Click on chart to enlarge.) Prior resistance level (note the horizontal line) has now become support, just below $74. To me, any stock in a strong up-trend that held during the recent decline has shown high relative strength and is therefore very promising. When the market strengthens, LULU may take off. LULU reports earnings on Thursday, March 17th.

It was nice to be mainly in cash during Tuesday’s decline.     I own a little QID, which rises 2X as much as the QQQQ falls.   I will wait for the short term trend to turn up again before I acquire any long positions.   The key to success in the market   is to lose little during market down-trends. As long as the QQQQ remains below its 10 week average, I will not buy growth stocks. (Click on weekly chart to enlarge.) The longer term trend remains up, in a Stage 2 advance.