Dr. Wish

While Wednesday was the first day of the new QQQ short term up-trend, I normally want to see   a new trend last for 5 days before I become confident in it.   The longer term trends remain down and I am cautious about this rally’s ability to break through resistance. I would like to see the GMI rise to 4 before jumping back in on the long side.

Another up or flat day on Wednesday will change my QQQ short term trend count to an up-trend.   Tuesday was the 20th day of the current short term down-trend.   The longer term trend remains down.   September is typically the worst month of the year for the market, so I would not be surprised to see a decline start soon. By the way, I am not concerned that the market is rising on sluggish volume.   The multi-month rally that began last September also came on below average trading volume. Check out this monthly chart of the QQQ (click on chart to enlarge).

We are nearing the place when the averages come up against major resistance.   The outcome will determine whether this counter-trend rally turns into an up-trend or ends with a continuation of the down-trend.