Dr. Wish

Blog Post: GMI=0 and Flashes RED! Day 22 of $QQQ short term down-trend; My 10:30 weekly chart below shows QQQ is now below its 30 week average. Look what happened the last time it did so in March, 2025. A major decline may be just beginning. Cash is king!

@ 10:55 pm
GMI0/6
GMI-22/9
T210834%

On February 4th I posted that a new QQQ short term down-trend had begun. QQQ went sideways after that but QQQ may now be entering a longer term Stage 4 down-trend. If it does so, we may be in for a sizable decline. That signal got me out early from the large declines since 2000. I have been posting that I prefer to be in cash. If the 30 week average turns down, all of my funds will be in cash. Be very careful. Most people who have not experienced a major market decline may be slaughtered. Look at recent above average weekly volume declines. Gray line in chart shows weekly close. If we enter a Stage 4 decline I will post the indicator I use to detect market bottoms. Study the Livermore quotes below that I showed my students.

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GMI=0 and RED.

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Blog Post: Day 18 of $QQQ short term down-trend; Aerospace and Defense has most at ATH on Monday, 15 stocks. $DFEN, 3X bullish ETF for aerospace/defense, hit ATH on extremely high volume, after retesting its GLB and forming a cup and handle base, see daily chart.

@ 10:52 pm
GMI3/6
GMI-25/9
T210849%

Every night I use TC2000 to filter 6,300+ US stocks to find those hitting an ATH that day. Sectors with many stocks reaching an ATH are attracting buyers. I only am interested in stocks that have recently reached an ATH. To understand this strategy,  look at the evidence I posted in my 2025 TraderLion presentation on Day 6. Stocks at an ATH are showing incredible relative strength and there is no overhead supply of sellers to stop it. Fewer than 200 stocks out of 6,000+ US stocks typically trade at an ATH on any given day. Today, only 86 stocks did so. The last time more than 100 did so was on February 9. So with so many aerospace/defense stocks trading at an ATH on Monday, I looked at the 3x bullish leveraged ETF for such stocks and found this wonderful cup and handle break-out. Many break-outs fail in a down-trend, but with an expanding war in Iran and huge break-out volume this setup might work.

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Blog Post: Day 17 of $QQQ short term down-trend; On Friday, 60 stocks reached an ATH: Utilities (12), Gold (7), Oil & Gas (7). Was $$$ flowing into these in anticipation of an IRAN strike? Monday’s action should tell us. Fasten your seat belts….

@ 7:49 pm
GMI3/6
GMI-25/9
T210849%

I find it useful to look each day at the industries that had the most stocks reaching an ATH. It shows where money managers are buying. Why are utilities leading? Look at this Utilities Sector ETF that reached an ATH on Friday. It had a recent GLB on above average volume. Note how it is climbing the 5 day EMA. Will the Iran war benefit utilities?

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The GMI remains Green but I am mainly in cash in my trading accounts. This market looks weak to me. Note the 10.4 weekly stochastic=30. In a strong up-trend this indicator is >80 for weeks. Don’t fight this market. Trading growth stocks profitably is much more likely when the GMI= 6. The last time the GMI=6 was December 5!

 

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