I noted yesterday that the markets were so oversold that I thought they might bounce. At Monday’s close, 59% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks were oversold. By Tuesday’s close this percentage fell to 39%. Now that the rebound has begun, the question is how far it will go. No one knows. During the most recent market bounce, the percentage of oversold stocks fell to zero. I will watch closely to see whether this market tops out soon or develops into a sustained major up-trend.
How would characterize the trend of the QQQ now:
(a) still in a downtrend
(b) uncertain trend; more data is needed to determine the trend
(c) now in an uptrend
Thanks for a brief reply.
Short term trend appears to me to still be down, but could turn on a dime. QQQ closed back above 30 week average but this average is in a down-trend. QQQ close to breaking above its daily average. This remains a counter-trend rally. When/if the QQQ reaches over-bought level I will look for a resumption of down-trend or a true reversal.
we can watch for a follow-thru day in 4 days or more, that would be evidence of a change in trend.
IBD thinks we just got the follow-through day!