GMI falls to 3, GMI-R to 4; long term trend indicator negative

In spite of the bad numbers on Wednesday, the short term up-trend in the SPY and QQQQ remains up.   A couple of more declines could change that.   Nevertheless, my longer term indicator is now negative again.   As I said yesterday, the key is whether the 30 week average starts to curve down.   For now it is flat and could yield a lot of whipsaw moves.   Note the weekly GMMA chart of the QQQQ below shows that all of the shorter term averages (black) are still above and sitting on the flat longer term averages (red). So we are not in an extreme down trend yet. Time to be defensive until the primary trend becomes clear. Remember, by definition,   a trend follower only identifies a top (or bottom) after it has occurred.