There were 7 new highs and 1,221 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday. The QQQQ completed the 14th day of its short term down-trend within a longer term down-trend. I heard on Fast Money that the AAII survey has the most bearish reading ever. Furthermore, the momentum indicator in IBD for the Nasdaq 100 index futures is below 25%, the place from which rallies tend to begin. And with the T2108 at 7%, in deeply oversold territory, I am becoming reluctant to add more shorts right now.
Last week, a person who knows nothing about the market asked me how to short stocks. This is reminiscent of the stories of the shoeshine boys providing stock tips, near the roaring 20’s market’s top. The sentiment is just too negative right now. Does this mean the market has to turn up? Not necessarily, but the market is always an assessment of competing probabilities. I am looking to protect my short profits if we get a major bounce up….
Speaking of protection, I have been using put options, rather than stop losses to protect my few long positions. A put option gives the owner of the put the right, but not the obligation, to sell 100 shares of a stock at a fixed price (strike price) for a set period of time (through option expiration). My broker allows me to purchase puts in my IRA. (To do so, one must fill out an option account application and have it approved.)
Let’s take an example. Say I think that gold is going to rise. I could buy 100 shares of the gold ETF, GLD, at Friday’s closing price of $92.29 per share, for a total cost of $9229, excluding commissions. I could then place a GTC (good til cancelled) stop order to sell the 100 shares if it subsequently trades at say, $89.00. Then, if GLD were to fall anytime to $89 or below I would be immediately sold out at market, with a loss of at least $3.29 per share (89-92.29) plus commissions. However, if GLD suddenly gapped down and opened one day way below $89, I could get sold out much lower than $89 and have an even larger loss. Worse still, what if GLD trades below $89, I get sold out, and then the stock climbs much higher without me. That never happens, does it?!
Instead of placing a stop loss order to sell out 100 shares of GLD at 89, I could purchase a March put option to sell 100 shares of the stock at the $89 strike price, good through March 20. (I could buy an option good for a later month, but it would cost more.) I can go to Yahoo Finance (or my broker’s site or any other quote site) and enter the symbol GLD and click on “options” and get the March call and put option prices. Options are traded on exchanges just like stocks are. If I scroll down to the put options section and look at the strike price of 89, I see that these options closed at $1.20 with $1.15 bid, $1.25 offered.
This means that I can place an order to buy 1 put option “at market” (or with a limit of $1.25) and expect to pay about $125 (each option covers 100 shares) per option, plus commissions.
Now I will own 100 shares of GLD plus one March 89 put option. This means that I can sit back and relax, knowing that if before option expiration on March 20, GLD is selling below $89, I can call my broker and instruct her to exercise the put, and sell my 100 shares at $89. Even if GLD is trading at $1.00 per share, I can still sell my shares at $89! In addition, if GLD falls below $89 anytime before March 20 and then rallies above $89, to say, $100, I am still holding my shares. I do not get sold out and then whipsawed, as could happen with a stop loss order!
The put option merely expires worthless if the stock is selling above $89 at expiration. Why would anyone put the stock to someone at $89, when s/he could get more by selling in the open market.
What is the downside of using the put this way? Well, the cost of the put (plus commissions) is added to the total transaction cost. Thus, in the example above, if I exercise my put, I lose $4.54 per share: (89.00-92.29 – 1.25) x 100= $454 plus commissions. Clearly, this is about $125 more than I would lose if I had just used a stop and been stopped out. Similarly, if the stock goes up and I sell my shares, I have to subtract the option price, $125, from my profits. Now, tell me, do you complain each year about losing the insurance premium you paid on your house, if your house does not burn down?
I find that buying a put option to protect stock I own is an especially comfortable way to bet on a rise, without becoming frazzled and whipsawed by this volatile market. At least I know from the outset that I have set the most that I can lose on a transaction. If you like this strategy, get a copy of the option instructions available at many option sites. It is probably a good idea to let your broker walk you through your first options trade.
Do you want more strategy posts like this?
Strategy bits like this are extremely helpful!
I couldn’t explain it any better. Very useful!! thanks
Yes, more strategy posts!
I am a market tyro…..kknowing only buy,sell,and stop orders. This is new info to me and very useful Thanks
Very well done and helpful post. I hope you understand how much your time and expertise in producing this blog is apreciated.
I also appreciate the strategy posts. Thanks!
Nice explanation, yes more strategy posts, if you can more concrete something like buy stock y at x and cover with put option z
This is one place where you and Bill Cara diverge on trading. He would sell a put on a stock purchased under oversold conditions, pocketing the premium plus the cap gain when it goes up. If it goes down he uses a mental stop.
I sometimes sell cash secured puts on stocks in an up-trend. However, today’s post was dedicated to buying insurance for an existing long position.
By all means, keep them coming! Love your writing.
Great blog!
Sound advice there. It's crucial in any kind of options trading to get some education before risking your money. Paper trading (using a real trading platform but with a simulated-money account) is a great way to get some practice. Are there platforms available for doing this?
Yes, go to Think or Swim or Options Express. Both allow you to trade a virtual portfolio.
Hello! I’ve been reading your blog for a long time now and finally got the bravery to go ahead and give you a shout out from Kingwood Tx! Just wanted to tell you keep up the fantastic job!
Thank you so much for your encouragement and kind words.
I write this in 2013 __It is interesting to look at history ..Take at look at what you wrote
“Last week, a person who knows nothing about the market asked me how to short stocks. This is reminiscent of the stories of the shoeshine boys providing stock tips, near the roaring 20′s market’s top. The sentiment is just too negative right now. Does this mean the market has to turn up? ”
Then have a look at the chart of ^IXIC (nasdaq) on this date .. it’s almost at the perfect bottom.
🙂 ..Interesting how history repeats ..Books are great places to learn lessons .
My spouse and I stumbled over here by a different web page and thought I might check things
out. I like what I see so i am just following you. Look
forward to exploring your web page again.
Yes, these types of strategy posts are extremely helpful.
Also worth noting is the calmness of your post considering this was the exact bottom (I believe) of the great correction. KUDOS
Thank you for your blog – the best of the best!!
Dr Wish, I started reading your site one week ago and I have been reading your old posts in the sections like “Tutorial”, “My Favorite Posts”.
I can not believe you are providing this kind of information for free. After all market is not all filled with sharks. There are person like you who genuinely wants to help little guys.
Thank you very much!
My advice is worth exactly what you paid for it! 🙂
Thanks.