The GMI remains at 4 (of 6) and the GMI-R is at 7 (of 10). There were only 21 new highs and 41 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Tuesday. Tuesday was the 26th day of the current QQQQ short term up-trend. Holding QLD is a wonderful way to catch this up-trend. Since this up-trend began QLD has advanced by 11.5%, almost twice the 6.2% advance in the QQQQ. In addition, URBN, which I first wrote about on 4/7 at 32.54, broke out on Tuesday, closing at $34.64, an all-time high. I own URBN. Growth stocks are coming to life. Twelve stocks on the IBD100 stock lists I have monitored the past year hit a new high on Tuesday: MA, FLS, ICLR, URBN, WRNC, ISYS, HOS, BMI, GTLS, JST, NXY, SDA. This is a good place to look for leaders in the current rally.
Eric: As a long time reader I am impressed how well your indicators to catch the majority of the trend(s). I was wondering if you had a sense of the following: Once your indicators get to the higer portion of their range (7 or 8 or higher, for instance) how many times has this happened where there has been a long rally afterwards; vs how many times has it been faked out to so that the market quickly reversed. In other words, if you start to take positions when it gets up to 7 or 8 do you have a 70% chance of catching the trend and only 30% of getting stopped out in the near term? Or 50% or 90%?
Just curious if you know now that you’ve been tracking this for a few years (at least).