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While I want to believe that today was a one day decline that will rectify itself in the coming days, I am not so sure. 
The GMI has fallen to +3. The daily and weekly QQQQ indexes will turn negative if the index does not rebound tomorrow. Only 17% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose today, along with 21% of the S&P 500 stocks and only 7% of the Dow 30 stocks. The percentage of the stocks in my universe of 4,000 that closed above their 10 week average also declined, from 80% to 73%. The QQQQ declined today on the biggest volume since its decline on April 20, before the current rally began. We are now in the 34th day of the rally (U-34).
It is possible we could still get the end of the month/quarter rally I have been anticipating and hanging on for. However, I do not trust the market now. I was stopped out of NDAQ and BOOM today. I am moving all of my stops up close to today’s lows. I think the odds of having successful longs is decreasing. I have told you that I am a chicken. I would rather be sold out even if I am wrong, preserve my capital, and live to trade another day. When my QQQQ daily index definitely turns negative, I go to 100% cash.
In addition to having concerns about how $60 oil will affect the
consumer and inflation, I am concerned that the short term interest rate indicator climbed to a new high today. (Click on chart to enlarge.) Speculators are clearly betting on higher short term rates.
I’m sorry to bring such depressing news tonight. Please don’t shoot the messenger. Let’s hope the QQQQ rallys tomorow.
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Please remember that the stock market is a risky place, especially now. I am not providing recommendations for you to follow. My goal is to share tools and methods that I have used over the past 40 years of trading, so that you may learn from them and adapt them to your trading style and needs. While I do my best, I do not guarantee the accuracy of any statistics computed or any resources linked to my blog. Please consult with your financial adviser and a mental health practitioner before you enter the stock market, and please do not take unaffordable risks in the current market environment. See the About section for more statements designed to protect you (and me) as you navigate this market. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but I would rather learn from a former winner than a loser.