I am reprinting below some of my writings from a few years ago in order to give my new students some understanding of my approach to the market. “it is utterly useless for us on the outside, who buy and sell comparatively small blocks of stock, to conjecture about what “they” are doing.  We cannot [...]

I noticed over the weekend the incredibly weak price trend of just about all stocks and ETF’s  that are related to India.  I learned a long time ago that when the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates to combat inflation, it eventually leads to a  market decline.  When the Fed thinks that the economy is [...]

I am posting this message with great trepidation. In my post written on June 8, 2008, I wrote: “The major bank stocks look especially weak. Look at this weekly chart of  Bank of America (red line= 30week average; click on chart to enlarge). Other bank stocks with similar charts include : WB, UBS, STI, and [...]

I used my favorite indicators to review the Dow 30 Index’s action since 1915, as this is how far back TC2007 allows me to track this index.  I looked at the monthly chart and the following indicators: 5 and 30 month simple moving averages and the 25.4.4 monthly stochastic. I am posting a chart of [...]

I did an analysis of the length of all of the QQQQ short term up-trends (as defined by me) going back to July, 2006.  Including the current up-trend, there have been 25.  Six (24%) of these past 25 up-trends lasted for more than 50 days.  Of these 6 longest up-trends, 4 lasted between 50 and [...]

For the first time since last July/August, the gold chart looks ominous (see daily chart of GLD below).  The 4 day average (red dotted line) has now crossed below the 10 day moving average (blue dotted line). GLD gapped down on huge volume 3 days ago and it has had 3 big volume down days [...]

When everyone is so bearish and expecting the worst, it is time to expect the opposite.  Last week, the Investor’s Intelligence Survey of letter writers and advisers actually showed more bears than bulls (38% vs. 29%, percents rounded). This is an exceedingly rare phenomenon and should have told us all that the market would rally.  [...]

For those of you who are first time readers, welcome!  I want you to know that I write this blog to share my experiences gained from trading over more than 40 years. I also write this blog to educate my students at the University of Maryland, who are enrolled in my classes on technical analysis [...]

At lunch on Friday I told my friend that I was moving 60% of my pension holdings from stock mutual funds to money market funds.  She was incredulous that I would do so after the market was already down so much.  I think her statement represents the psychology of the moment. The market has already [...]

Every once in a while the charts become so bad that they scare me.  I check a number of market indicators every night and was concerned by the current steep decline in the Shanghai Composite Index.  The weekly  chart (and monthly chart, not shown) are very ominous.  After a major decline (almost 70%) from 2007 [...]