66th day of QQQ short term up-trend; short term weakness; selling weekly options
Market remains in up-trend but IBD says “Uptrend under pressure.” Until first quarter earnings are released later in April, there could be some weakness. There is nothing to push the market up until strong earrings are reported. The GMI and GMI-2 remain at 6 each. But the short term indicators like MACD and stochastics are showing some weakness. 
For example, only 44% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed with their MACD above its signal line. And only 15% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks had their fast stochastics above the their slow stochastics. These are signs of short term weakness. The Worden T2108 Indicator is at 54%, in neutral territory, but its trend is clearly down, reflecting weakness in the NYSE stocks. GLD continues to show weakness. And 66 days is relatively long for a short term up-trend. Nevertheless, with the GMI at 6, I remain fully invested in mutual funds in my university pension. In my trading account I have some longs but I prefer to write covered calls or sell cash secured puts on the weekly stock index options. The premium received from 4x a weekly option is more than the total premium for a monthly option. I like selling weekly options.
63rd day of QQQ short term up-trend; Gold hits resistance?
I may not be able to post again until next Monday morning. I am expecting weakness toward the end of the week and into the pre-earnings lull the first two weeks of April…….
Gold may have bounced down off of resistance on Tuesday. Check out this weekly chart, which shows that GLD cloud not get above its declining 30 week average (red line). Click on chart to enlarge.
Window dressing time; leveraged ETF’s shine.
Well, the mutual fund window dressing time is upon us. The strongest stocks rise into the end of the quarter. The buying will probably last through Thursday. Then we should look out for weakness until earnings are released. Since the GMI gave its buy signal on 12/23, the QQQ has advanced +19% and the SPY +12%. The leveraged ETF, QLD, has risen +47% and TYH is up +80%.
Window dressing this week? Approaching “sell in May and go away”; Judy’s picks: MAKO and INVN
We may get the last minute “window shopping” by mutual funds this week, as they purchase recent stock winners like AAPL to enhance their portfolios. Then we wait for first quarter earnings…….
Meanwhile, the GMI buy signal from 12/23 remains in place. 
All of my indicators are positive. Friday was the 61st day of the current QQQ short term up-trend. Prior up-trends rarely go past 80 days. The top could appropriately happen around late April, when we reach the, “Sell in May,” period. So, I will watch the charts very closely for any sign of a meaningful top in late April. The Worden T2108 Indicator remains in neutral territory, at 54%. 50% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed Friday with their MACD above their signal lines, an indicator sensitive to short term strength. The SPY has closed above its 10 week average for 12 straight weeks.
The weekly GUPPY chart of the SPY shows this index to be in a strong accelerating up-trend. It shows no signs of any top, with the short averages (red) rising well above the longer term averages in a RWB rocket pattern. Weakness will show up first in a decline of the red averages.
One of Judy’s picks from a long time ago showed considerable strength on Friday. As this weekly chart of MAKO shows, it broke out of a base to a new high on increased volume last week. Judy selects stocks first by their concept and bought MAKO around $7. MAKO is a leader in the field of robotic surgery. Many boomers are going to need knee and hip repair……
Judy’s other pick, INVN, also broke to an all-time high on Friday.
60th day of QQQ short term up-trend; T2108 weakens
GMI declined to 5 (of 6) and the T2108 is back to 49%. There were less than 100 new highs on Thursday. I still suspect that this decline will lead to a nice rebound into the close of the first quarter next week. But it is important not to become attached to a made up scenario. I remain long, except for gold, and will have to wait for the near term resolution. If we do get a bounce up next week, chances are we will see weakness the following 5-10 days as we wait for first quarter earnings to be released. The earnings releases will then set the market tone for the next month. While we have had as long as 80+ days of a short term QQQ up-trend before, they are relatively rare. So this up-trend may be closer to the end than I suspect.
59th day of QQQ short term up-trend
End of first quarter on the horizon. The strongest stocks should become stronger into next week.
58th day of QQQ short term up-trend; riding the up-trend; gold fading
The GMI dropped to 5 because the Successful 10 Day New High component of the GMI turned negative. As long as the GMI remains above 3, I have no concerns about the current up-trend. Furthermore, next week is the end of the first quarter, and mutual funds will be buying up the strongest stocks so they will appear in their quarterly reports. The reports don’t specify when the stocks were bought, so every portfolio manager can appear to have bought the winners before they rose. So, I believe that any weakness in the winners is setting up a major rise at the end of the week into next week. AAPL and the other leaders should gather strength. I am fully invested on the long side and will ride this up-trend until it ends.
Meanwhile, gold appears weak to me. I own put options on GLD because I think gold is at the beginning of a major Stage 4 decline. Check out this weekly chart of GLD.
57th day of QQQ short term up-trend; NTES at new all-time high
NTES broke to a new all-time high on Monday. NTES came up on my new high and good fundamentals scan. See weekly chart below.
56th day of QQQ short term up-trend; HLF breaks out
The GMI remains at 6, and the up-trend continues.
T2108 is at 63%, in neutral territory. GLD still looks weak, however. Meanwhile, HLF has broken from a base to an all-time high. Check out this nice weekly chart.
55th day of QQQ short term up-trend
Options expire on Friday.
