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Back from Mark Minervini’s Wonderful Master Trader Program

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I just spent 3 days in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, at an intensive 3 day workshop for committed stock traders. It was a privilege to spend time with two of the greatest stock traders, Mark Minervini (above) and David Ryan. They taught the attendees what they had learned as they amassed their fortunes in the market. I had read Mark’s book, listed to the right, and was impressed with his trading strategy that draws upon stage analysis and his own brand of stock trading. I had also admired the writings of David Ryan, William O’Neil’s protege, and require all of my students to read his wonderful chapter in Market Wizards.

While I was expecting to learn a lot from these masters, I was not prepared for the compassionate and decent human beings that these two men are. They greeted me and immediately offered to present a lecture (by Skype) to my students. They both are dedicated to educating young people in financial literacy and in how to manage risk in the stock market. And if that wasn’t enough, I was amazed to see how many of the traders came up to me and thanked me for teaching technical analysis to students at a university. The personal qualities of the attendees was far beyond anything I had expected and created a warm and receptive environment for the workshop. As I left the workshop, Mark reiterated that he wanted to begin teaching my students as soon as possible–wow!

The first two days (Saturday and Sunday) we spent almost 12 hours each day listening to Mark and David. We could have been just as easily in a desert rather than a beautiful and fully supportive resort hotel. All were totally focused on the information being presented. They showed over 600 slides that taught everything from how to select stocks, the price patterns that are most profitable, the way to set stops, pyramid up, and close out positions. They gave the best information on the value of cutting losses that I have ever seen. I also got a real feel for the benefits of using IBD’s MarketSmith service. (And no, Mark did not even once try to take advantage of the opportunity to sell any of his other trading books or services–what integrity!) Mark would not leave the training room until people had an opportunity to ask every question they had. I have never witnessed in a prestigious speaker such devotion to educating and serving every attendee.

The third day (Monday) was a newly added feature. We watched Mark and David prepare for the market open, and then observed them and Mark’s associate, Bob Weissman, actually place trades. This experience gave me a unique insight into what it really takes to trade stocks profitably as a business. Monday evening ended the long day with Tony Robbin’s son, Jairek Robbins, conducting a 3-hour session on how to enhance one’s psychology and well being to enable one to handle the stresses and requirements of trading. This was also an invaluable experience. That session ended around 10:00 PM!

I found that Mark has put together a program to enable people to ready themselves for trading successfully. He has put into a 3 day session much of what it took me over 50 years to learn. I may even attend again next year, as many of the other attendees were doing. I am now eager to infuse my curriculum with the new insights I gained and look forward to the day when Mark and David will present a lecture directly to my students. Thank you to Mark, Bob and David and to the attendees, my new stock buddies.

New $QQQ short term up-trend and longer term trend remains in RWB pattern, $SPY weaker.

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Thursday was the 2nd day of a new QQQ short term up-trend. I am buying some TQQQ. I will be more confident of the change in trend if it reaches 5 days. Nevertheless, the QQQ remains in an RWB up-trend.

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In contrast, the SPY remains somewhat weaker, with the faster averages (red) constricted.

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Watching for Halloween rally; $AAPL supporting $QQQ; Interest rates $TLT and the dollar $UUP rise and gold $GLD falls

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I am mainly in cash in my trading accounts but holding a small position in SQQQ. If the short term down-trend continues a few more days I will add more SQQQ (the inverse 3x leveraged bearish QQQ ETF). The T2108 is at 31% and would have to fall closer to 10% to suggest a very over-sold market where significant declines end. The 10.4 daily stochastic is at 25, low, but still not in extremely oversold territory. And the QQQ has just had an oversold bounce from its lower 15.2 Bollinger Band but it looks like this support level could fail to hold. The daily 12/26/9 MACD histograms are negative and declining, showing downward momentum. The GMI signal recently flashed Red, but  this signal has recently coincided with short term bottoms rather than tops. Time for me to be extra careful and to conserve cash while Mr. Market makes up his mind which direction to go.

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However, Mark Hulbert’s recent post reminds me that this may be the time to return to the market according to  the “Sell in May” strategy. Mark has a perspicacious empirical approach to analyzing the market’s behavior. Coming up is the seasonally strongest time for the market, he writes,  and the current weakness may be setting us up for it. Scare everyone into selling out to stronger hands who will buy low and profit from the subsequent move up. Most advances begin after a decline. So I will reverse and go long if this market shows any signs of strength in the coming days………

One of the major reasons the QQQ is outperforming SPY and DIA is the technical strength shown by AAPL, which is heavily weighted in the computation of QQQ’s underlying index (NASDAQ 100). AAPL is defying gravity and may  be the last component to  decline before the current weakness in the QQQ ends? (When the bulls give up on AAPL, the end of the decline may be near.)

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A major factor behind the weakening of the indexes is falling long term government bonds, representing higher interest rates and leading to lower gold prices. I follow the 20+ year government bond ETF, TLT, as an indicator of how bond traders feel about long term interest rates. TLT is in  a swoon, leading to a higher dollar and lower gold prices.

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And the dollar rises, as shown by UUP.

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And gold falls, as shown by GLD. It all fits together like a jig saw puzzle–until it doesn’t…

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The GMI table below shows that the QQQ has just closed the week below its critical 10 week average while the SPY has done so for 6 straight weeks. Will there be a Halloween rally?

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