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13 recent GLB stocks to monitor: $ALGN, $BMS, $CINF, $CNSL, $CPRT, $ELLI, $MO, $NLSN, $PNRA, $SWHC, $SYY, $TFX, $TXRH, $VSTO

GMI4
GMI-26
T210883%

With the GMI on a buy, IBD on a confirmed up-trend and my QQQ short term up-trend in its 10th day, I have been tip-toeing back into this market in my trading IRA. However, the longer term trend is not up,  so I am not ready to reinvest my university pension funds. I do think it is okay to talk about some stocks that appear to be showing technical strength. The stocks below all had a recent  green line break-out (GLB). This means they have formed a 3 month or longer top at an all-time high and have just broken through that top to a new all-time high. Such strength can sometimes signify the start of a large multi-month move. I am showing these GLB stocks as a way of explaining how I find promising stocks. When I do buy a GLB, I always exit if the stock comes back below the green line. This is a sign of a false break-out and technical weakness. When a stock breaks through its all-time top, I want to see an increase in volume as others rush in to buy. I often buy a stock back if it then closes back above the green line. Here are some weekly charts of stocks that hit a new yearly high on Friday and that have had a recent GLB. I have not researched them for a possible buy. Some of them had unusually large trading volume last week and there may have been an important announcement that would need to be reviewed and weighed before purchase. Before buying, I  always review the fundamentals of the company, its next earnings date, and other technical indicators. I am putting these GLB stocks in a watch list to monitor over the coming days. Let me know if you find such posts useful. These are weekly charts.

ELLI

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.22.17 PMNLSN:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.23.37 PMVSTO:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.24.36 PMCINF:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.25.24 PMSWHC:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.26.18 PMCPRT:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.27.00 PMBMS:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.28.19 PMPNRA:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.29.13 PMTXRH:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.29.57 PM

ALGN:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.31.40 PMMO:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.32.26 PM

SYY:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.33.15 PMTFX:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.33.59 PMHere is the GMI table. GMI03042016

 

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9th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; GMI goes to Buy but I remain vigilant

GMI4
GMI-26
T210881%

I corrected the reading for the IBD growth mutual fund index component so the GMI actually turned to a Buy on the close of 3/2. Note, however, that the major indexes are still below their declining 30 week averages, indicating the longer term trend is still down. The T2108 is at a nose bleed high of 81% and this weekly chart of the NYSE index clearly shows this rebound is within a Stage 4 down-trend. I am watching very carefully for any signs  this rebound is ending.

Screen Shot 2016-03-04 at 6.06.50 AM

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8th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; $T is HUGE!

GMI4
GMI-26
T210876%

The T2108 is at 76%!  Another strong day and the GMI could flash a Buy signal on Thursday. Meanwhile, I am holding some TQQQ during this bounce.

This monthly chart shows that T is breaking out of a multi-year consolidation. My millennial son and former Apple Genius, Mike,  says that T is opening up a whole new way to get TV on his phone. He says this is HUGE! With a dividend yield of 5.2% and a promising chart, I thought it a good idea to buy some T on Wednesday.

Screen Shot 2016-03-02 at 8.37.18 PM

 

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7th day of $QQQ short term up-trend

GMI3
GMI-24
T210871%

Holding some TQQQ, given this was the 7th day of the QQQ short term up-trend. The BWR down-trend seems to be ending. If an RWB up-trend resumes, I will be more confident of a real change in trend. It has been a long time since the T2108 was over 70.

Screen Shot 2016-03-01 at 10.31.20 PM

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5th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; whither the general market?; strong stocks: $HA, $ELLI, $HOFT, $WBMD, $JBSS, $JBT, $VLRS

GMI2
GMI-25
T210859%

Please note that my QQQ short term trend indicator is much more sensitive than the GMI and I may use it to trade a short term up-trend within a longer term down-trend, like we have now. I have found that if a new QQQ short term trend can last for 5 days, it often has legs. When a trend changes from down to up, it is very difficult to accept it because there has often been a long down-trend prior to the change. We all have our hands on the rear view mirror as we try to navigate the market (and life!). I sometimes buy the leveraged 3X QQQ bullish ETF , TQQQ, on the first or second day of a QQQ short term up-trend and try to ride the up-trend. Short term up-trends, once they reach 5 days, can often persist for many days, the majority go on from 11-44 days, based on an analysis I did of trend changes between 2006-2013. So, I may buy some TQQQ at the beginning of a QQQ short term up-trend and average up slowly if the trend continues. But right now the GMI is on a Sell signal suggesting that if this short term up-trend should fail, it could come down in a hurry. I therefore wager very little money on such counter-trend bounces. (Don’t ask me to define little or how I average up, it depends on one’s personal account size and tolerance for risk.)

But I am growing more confident of the idea that this market has  put in a bottom that will last for a while. There is too much open bearishness on the internet and CNBC shows. Plus the T2108 hit an extremely low reading of 4% during the January decline, a level that is very rare and typical of past market bottoms. The weekly 10.4.4 stochastics indicators for the QQQ and SPY and DIA are also at oversold levels not reached since 2013. Finally, the Investors Intelligence poll published in IBD continues to show more investment letters being bearish than bullish, itself a very rare phenomenon. Typically bulls far outnumber bears for very long periods, and when the reverse happens, the market fools most prophets by going up.

The GMI takes a long time to reverse and with the major indexes still trading below their 30 week averages, the coast is not clear yet. But a major reversal has to begin with a change in the very short term trend, and that has happened, for now. I therefore remain largely in cash, but I am tiptoeing in with small purchases of  TQQQ and a few other strong stocks. There are a number of stocks showing some technical strength, which I am putting on my watchlists to monitor and research. Any stock that can come through the recent declines at or near its all-time high is showing strong buying interest by others. Here are a few, most of which have had a recent GLB (green line break-out to an all-time high):

HA:

Screen Shot 2016-02-27 at 4.09.14 PM

ELLI:

Screen Shot 2016-02-27 at 4.10.17 PM

HOFT:

Screen Shot 2016-02-27 at 4.11.35 PMWBMD is heading towards a GLB, but must prove its ability to break through.

Screen Shot 2016-02-27 at 4.14.20 PMJBSS:

Screen Shot 2016-02-27 at 4.17.26 PMJBT:

Screen Shot 2016-02-27 at 4.18.23 PMVLRS:

Screen Shot 2016-02-27 at 4.19.04 PM

One or more of these stocks may turn out to be a real market performer, but the GMI remains at 2 (of 6) and on a Sell signal since December.

Screen Shot 2016-02-27 at 3.41.07 PM

 

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3rd day of $QQQ short term up-trend; $FB and $ELLI show strength

GMI3
GMI-24
T210848%

With Wednesday’s one day reversal, this market is beginning to show resilience. The GMI is back to 3 (of 6). Time to look for some emerging leaders.

I like the way FB is behaving. It bounced on Wednesday. Also, any stock that can maintain its RWB up-trend during the past few months of market weakness merits attention. Note the stock closed Wednesday above all of its 12 moving averages. The gray dotted line shows each weekly close.

FBGMMA02242016And ELLI is in the middle of a GLB to an all-time high.

ELLIweeklyAnd may be showing resumption of its strong RWB up-trend.

ELLIGMMA

 

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2nd day of new $QQQ short term up-trend

GMI2
GMI-24
T210844%

I do not trust a new QQQ short term up-trend until it lasts 5 days. The GMI remains on a Sell signal. The daily 10.4 stochastics for the QQQ and SPY are very over-bought and beginning to turn down. I remain mainly in cash. Here is the daily chart of the SPY (S&P500 ETF). Will it hold the 30 day average (red line)?

Screen Shot 2016-02-23 at 11.07.14 PM

 

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