9th day of $QQQ short term up-trend

GMI

6/6

GMI-2

7/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

62%

Markets remain in short and longer term up-trends.

8th day of $QQQ short term up-trend: GLB: $QLYS

GMI

6/6

GMI-2

8/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

60%

QLYS is a recent GLB (green line break-out)  showing a lot of strength after beating earnings estimates.  Below is its weekly chart.

QLYSwkly11042014

7th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; GLB: $CBOE, $AMBA

GMI

6/6

GMI-2

8/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

63%

CBOE had a green line break-out (GLB) on Monday after reporting increased earnings and trading volume.  See its weekly chart:

CBOEWKLY11032014AMBA recently re-tested its GLB and is now climbing.

AMBAwkly11032014

Stocks at new highs and with good fundamentals; $MNST, $NKE

I ran my TC2000 scan for stocks with good earnings that hit a 52 week high on Friday. The list is posted to the right. Newhi11022014There were 15 stocks. Five have a flag to the left, indicating they appear in one of my IBD watch lists. All of these but DTSI and FARM, are trading above a recent green line break-out (GLB) at an all-time high. I own several of these. One stock, MNST, had a huge volume break-out, consolidated, and is now moving up. Check out its weekly chart below.

MNSTwkly11022014Some strong stocks do not meet all of this scan’s criteria.  For example, NKE looks good but has not doubled in the past year. NKE recently had a nice GLB, as shown in this weekly chart……. NKEwkly11022014

 

Friday was the 6th day of the new QQQ short term up-trend. QQQ short term up-trends can often  last for several months. Given that we are in the strong seasonal period for the market, I would not be surprised if this up-trend lasts into January. Eventually, higher interest rates will kill this market.  So I am watching rates very carefully. The GMI is at 6 (of 6) and all but one of the GMI-2 components are positive.

GMI10312014

 

5th day of $QQQ short term up-trend

GMI

6/6

GMI-2

7/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

57%

All but one of my indicators are positive.

4th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; GLB: $AAPL

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

7/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

53%

AAPL continues to rocket higher after consolidating for weeks around its green line break-out (GLB). This is a daily chart.

AAPL10292014Here is its monthly chart, showing the green line drawn at its multi-month peak in 2012.

AAPLmonthly10292014

3rd day of $QQQ short term up-trend

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

7/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

55%

I am very tired today after an all-day meeting. Did not watch the market.

GMI performance since 2006; GMI flashes a Buy; GLB $RCPT takes off; GLB: $EW

GMI

4/6

GMI-2

7/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

43%

In response to a comment left by a reader who questioned the value of the GMI, I am posting a visual of how the QQQ behaved since 2006 while the GMI was on a Sell (red) or Buy (green) signal.  You will see that the GMI got me out of the major declines.  The cost was that sometimes the GMI gave a false signal and got me out at the end of a short decline.  It then got me back in. I think this is a fine trade-off to make in order to avoid the pain of a serious decline. I am a chicken when it comes to trading. (Click on chart to enlarge.)GMIperf10272014The GMI is now back to a Buy signal as of Monday’s close. Two consecutive closes above 3 yield a Buy signal. Monday was also the second day of the new QQQ short term up-trend.

On September 10, I wrote that RCPT had had a green line break-out (GLB).  The stock exploded up after hours on Monday and is trading up about 25%.  Check it out on Tuesday. After the close RCPT announced good results on their colitis treatment. This is why technical analysis has value.  Somebody apparently anticipated this news and bought into the company huge over a month ago! Their buying was evident in the chart. Here is its hourly chart after Monday’s close. Expect RCPT to open way up on Tuesday.

RCPThourly10272014Speaking of GLB stocks, EW had a huge break-out last week. Check out this daily chart of EW.

EWdaily10272014

 

 

 

 

 

 

$QQQ short term trend turns up, retakes 30 week average; GLB stocks shine: $AAPL,$BABY,$AGIO,$RGLS,$REGN

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

7/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

44%

The snap-back in my indicators was quick and extraordinary. A new QQQ short term up-trend has begun. However, it has to last 5 days for me to heavily accumulate TQQQ,  the 3X leveraged bullish QQQ ETF.  I did take a small position in TQQQ at the end of the day on Friday. Buying right after a technical buy signal is actually low risk to me, because if the technical buy signal fails, I can quickly sell out with a relatively small loss. The GMI is above 3, and one more day there and the GMI will flash a Buy signal. Most important, the QQQ is now back above its critical 30 week average (red line), indicating that the Stage 2 advance is still intact. The SPY and DIA also retook their 30 week averages last week.

QQQwkly10242014

We are entering what is typically the strongest period for the market, the fourth quarter.  (“Buy stocks on Halloween!”) I expect the strong popular stocks to be bought  by the mutual funds so their end-of-year reports will include the winners in their portfolios. In this way the fund managers look smart for owning them, even though they may have just purchased them at high prices. It’s all about looking good so potential customers will buy their funds and pay their exorbitant management fees. (Why buy mutual funds when one can buy  index ETFs, with their cheaper management fees?)….

Speaking of stocks that institutions will want to own at year’s end, AAPL has regained its critical 10 week average.  I have repeatedly found it  profitable to own AAPL as long as it stayed above its rising 10 week average. AAPL has again broken above its green line and is well above its 10 week average (blue dotted line). Stocks can sometimes consolidate after a green line break-out (GLB), especially if the market becomes weak. The fact that AAPL came through the recent market turbulence at an all-time high shows impressive relative strength and bodes well for the end of year rally and accompanying mutual fund window dressing.

WklyAAPL10242014

Another recent GLB that I have written about is BABY.  BABY is showing a lot of strength, having plodded higher amidst the recent market turmoil. Notice how it is hugging its rising 10 week average (blue dotted line).

BABY10242014wklyAGIO is another biotech with a recent GLB, that is showing considerable strength.

AGIO10242014wkly

A reader wrote  to thank me for posting Judy’s first comment to me about RGLS. As my long time readers know, Judy is an incredible stock picker and my stock buddy. Judy reads technical reports voraciously and uncovers gems , often bio-techs, that are working on promising drugs or inventions. She then buys a little and holds them for a long time, if she believes they have a great concept. Unfortunately, I do not have the confidence to hold such stocks for a long time through thick and thin. I have lived through too many bear market declines where everything gets decimated. Anyway, Judy talked to me again and I posted a second time  about the prospects for RGLS in Decmber, 2013. At least one reader apparently bought it. Look at what RGLS did last week. Note the GLB last week and its huge volume! Is this the start of something great? (Remember though, clinical trials are risky.)

RGLS10242014wklyAnother stock that Judy has been urging me to buy is REGN, another recent GLB, which Judy has talked about for a long time.  REGN is running clinical trials for several new drugs, including a potential new blockbuster drug for treating high cholesterol. This weekly chart shows a GLB, followed by a multi-week consolidation.

REGNwkly10242014

Here is the weekly GMI table. Note that while the QQQ is back above its 10 week average, SPY is not. The large cap industrial stocks are lagging this rebound. This market is not out of the woods yet.

GMI10242014

20th day of $QQQ short term down-trend

GMI

3/6

GMI-2

5/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

39%

The QQQ short term trend could turn up on Friday.  More important, QQQ and SPY are now back above their 30 week averages.



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