2nd day of $QQQ short term down-trend; $AAPL shines; $HAL green line break-out

GMI

4/6

GMI-2

3/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

65%

AAPL shined again on Tuesday.  AAPL held its trend line break-out for the second day.

AAPL03252014

HAL had a green line break-out with above average volume  last Friday.  So far, it is holding. Cup and handle? Check out this daily chart. (I have a very small position in HAL.) IBD comp rating: 89

HALdaily03252014

 

New $QQQ short term down-trend; $AAPL showing strength

GMI

4/6

GMI-2

3/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

64%

I am raising stops and getting ready to move into SQQQ if this down-trend continues. It is still possible the market will rise the rest of the week with end of quarter window dressing.  But they are shooting all of the leaders now, except for AAPL. AAPL was strong on Monday and may have broken its down-trend (green trend line) , see daily chart below. I took a small bite of AAPL on Monday and will spit it out if it falls back below this trend line.

AAPL03242014

 

$QQQ short term up-trend in jeopardy; 3D stocks looking weak; $XEC, $NGVC, $ASGN–green line break-out

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

5/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

66%

Friday’s late reversal threatens to end the QQQ short term up-trend that completed its 29th day on Friday. A down or flat day on Monday could begin a new short term down-trend.  However, with the end of the first quarter mutual fund window dressing occurring this week, the market could start off down on Monday and come back strong towards the end of the day and the rest of the week.  I will watch the market carefully for signs of a trend change.  To hedge my trading account, I have a small position in SQQQ and a somewhat larger position in TQQQ.  I will adjust these holdings when the short term trend becomes clearer to me.  Short term down-trends often give brief fake-out moves  that last only a few days. I am re-posting a chart of the short term up and down trends that I posted in early February. Note that 41% of the 51 down-trends between 2006 and December, 2013 (as I define them) lasted 5 days or less.

Duration If a short term down-trend begins, I will be more sure of it once it passes day 5 and add more SQQQ then. Another possible  scenario is for a bounce later this week, followed by a resumption of a down-trend.  Then again, with earnings release season in April, we could see a decline leading to a significant advance when earnings start coming out.  Take your pick…..

One source of concern is the topping behavior of the 3D printing stocks that have had a huge bull market run.  XONE, ONVO, DDD, and SSYS have all developed weak chart patterns.  For example, look at what appears to me to be a head and shoulders top in SSYS in its weekly chart. Note the large red volume spikes, suggesting selling by mutual funds. I drew in a possible neckline which has been penetrated. Another danger sign is that the 30 week average (red line) is now starting to level off.

SSYSwkly03212014

The other three 3D stocks have similar weak chart patterns. Even 3D stocks do not advance forever……………….

Meanwhile, the GMI is at 5 (of 6) indicating to me a still solid longer term up-trend in the general market. The more sensitive GMI-2 is now at 5 (of 8) reflecting weakness in its very short term components.

GMI03212014

There was an interesting green line break-out stock on Friday, XEC. Check out its daily chart. Any stock that can sprint to an all-time high in a weak market and hold it is worth watching. XEC has an IBD comp rating of 94.

XECdaiy03212014

NGVC, an IPO in 2012 also broke its green line last week.  Check out its weekly chart. IBD comp rating: 90.

NGVCwkly03212014And ASGN broke its 2000 peak, IBD comp:  95.

ASGNwkly03212014

28th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; $ASGN green line break-out resumes

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

8/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

65%

GMI-2 is now at 8 (of 8).  These are a collection of very short term indicators.

ASGN recently re-tested its green line break-out and headed up on Thursday on above average volume. ASGN has an IBD composite rating of 96.

ASGN03202014

 

27th day of $QQQ short term up-trend

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

7/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

65%

The QQQ appears to be holding its up-trend, but notice all of the red down volume spikes recently in its daily chart, suggesting distribution by the funds.

QQQdaily03192014

26th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; $PNFP green line break-out

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

6/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

73%

Short and longer term trends remain up. PNFP had a green line break-out to an all-time high on Tuesday. Its IBD comp rating: 83.

Screen shot 2014-03-18 at 10.09.10 PM

 

25th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; recent green line break-outs $PANW and $INVN climb

GMI

6/6

GMI-2

4/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

68%

The QQQ backed away from the cliff on Monday and its short term up-trend continues. PANW, which broke above its green line (all-time high) again last week, continued to rise.

PANW03172014

As did INVN:

INVN03172014And SHEN:

SHEN03172014

Longer term up-trend of $QQQ intact; a new short term down-trend could develop with a weak Monday

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

4/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

63%

With the GMI  at 5 (of 6), the longer term up-trend remains intact. IBD sees the market uptrend under pressure and notes that the put/call ratio on Friday was approaching 1.0, a sign that a bounce may be coming as bearishness grows. I am largely in cash in my trading accounts, having had my positions in GLD and NUGT called away at Friday’s close.  We are in the post-earnings release period when the market often corrects.  As we get close to the end of the month and the end of the first quarter, the market will likely recover as it starts to anticipate new earnings reports.  I am waiting to enter positions in rocket stocks when they bounce from oversold levels.  I am also continuing to write some weekly call options. Here is the weekly GMI table:

GMI03142014A weak close on Monday would turn my QQQ short term count (U-24) into a new down-trend.

 

23rd day of $QQQ short term up-trend; strength in $INVN; mainly in cash

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

4/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

63%

Short and longer term trends remain up—for now. IBD now sees the market “uptrend under pressure.” While I remain 100% invested in mutual funds in my university pension, which I cannot trade often, I am largely in cash in my trading accounts. GLD has been very strong and my  holdings in GLD and NUGT  will be called away Friday as the weekly calls I sold expire way in the money.  GLD may be too extended for me to buy back and write calls again on Monday.  I sold half of my position in TQQQ on Friday morning because too many stocks that have broken out reversed below their break-out levels. The longer term market up-trend is still in place and I will buy back into the market when this weakness is over….

Recent green line break out INVN managed to rise on Thursday on above average volume.  INVN is worth watching for future purchase because of its unusual strength in a down market..

INVN03132014

22nd day of $QQQ short term up-trend; $GB holding geen line

GMI

6/6

GMI-2

6/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

69%

This daily chart of GB shows it to be holding its recent green line break-out. GB has an IBD composite rating of 90.

GBdaily30122014



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