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32nd day of $QQQ short term up-trend; Watching $PACB

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Quite a while ago, my stock buddy, Judy, talked to me about PACB. It has a lot of promise for the new technology it is developing. I have been watching PACB for quite a while. After putting in a likely bottom, PACB is showing some signs of life. While far from its all-time high of 17.47, I still nibbled a little on it on Wednesday. This is a very speculative and relatively low priced stock. But Judy’s concept stocks have often proved themselves.

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29th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; weaker dollar = larger profits; 5 successful GLB stocks

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This GMMA chart of the dollar index (UUP) suggests to me that the dollar’s up-trend is over. A weakening dollar implies lower interest rates and more profits for large US international companies that must translate their foreign currency earnings back into dollars. This may be why the market is strengthening— in anticipation of brighter second quarter forecasts to come with the imminent first quarter earnings reports.

Screen Shot 2016-04-03 at 6.24.57 PMBelow are five GLB (green line break-out) stocks that came up in my TC2000 alerts the past 30 days.

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Not all GLB stocks work out but I must admit, most of the recent alerts have worked out. In a rising market, buying GLB stocks breaking to all-time highs can be a profitable strategy. GGG just broke out on Friday. Will it also prove to be a winner?

Screen Shot 2016-04-03 at 6.39.54 PMAnd the GMI table:

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28th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; end of window-dressing, weakness coming?

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With the end of end of quarter window dressing, I expect weakness until earnings start coming out in mid-April. There were only 133 new highs on Thursday, down from 210 on Wednesday. This daily chart of QQQ shows that it was briefly outside of its upper 15.2 daily Bollinger Band on Wednesday. I expect QQQ could decline at least to the lower band, around 105. If that fails to hold, look out below! (look at what happened in early January)

Screen Shot 2016-04-01 at 5.56.56 AMI will tighten stops to protect gains.

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Critcal week for market coming up; GLB: $TFX, $ESLT

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This week there will be more comments from the FED and we will be in the middle of the period when mutual funds dress up their end of quarter portfolio reports for their shareholders. I am therefore expecting strength in the recent winners ( the 4 FANG stocks, FB,AMZN,NFLX and GOOG,  are looking better) for this last week of the first quarter. Then we may get a decline until earnings come out later in mid-April. I do not think this market is in bad shape. Look at this monthly chart of the SPY. Compared to what happened in 2000 and 2007, this market looks pretty healthy.

Screen Shot 2016-03-26 at 8.37.50 PMThis blow-up of this monthly chart since 2013 shows more clearly what has been happening recently.

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While the market has leveled off and we have had a few down months, the market has been resilient. This index would have to break below these recent lows for me to become concerned. So we could see a rising market for the rest of the year. However, we need to remember that the market typically performs poorly during the first term of a new president, and this next president could be  something! All new presidents tend to tighten the budget early in their term so that they can relax things and spend more  to ignite the economy just in time for their re-election campaign…

There were again few new 52 week highs on Thursday, only 49. There were even more new lows than highs. This suggests that buying stocks at new highs and GLBs has not worked out most of the time. One that has, that I have been following is TFX, which had a huge volume GLB around $140 on 2/25 and has not looked back. Note the unusually high volume when the stock broke above its green line top to an all-time high.

Screen Shot 2016-03-26 at 8.54.15 PMThis is exactly the type of price action we want to see when we buy a GLB. But few GLBs have turned out this well recently. It is very important to sell a GLB stock quickly if it does not behave like TFX. ESLT also broke out last week. TC2000 sent me and my students a GLB alert at the open on 3/22, at 91.46. ESLT closed that day at 97.50. Note the large volume on the break-out.

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Meanwhile the GMI is at 5 (of 6) and still on a Buy signal. The GMI2 is only at 3 (of 8) reflecting its very sensitive short term components.

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23rd day of $QQQ short term up-trend

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The past 3 days there have been only 68, 64 and 51 new 52 week highs. This is not a market for profiting from buying stocks at new highs. The put/call ratio on Wednesday was 1.03, suggesting we may be getting close to a bounce. But a lot of my break out stocks have failed to continue their rise. I am getting stopped out and more defensive.

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