27th day of $QQQ short term up-trend

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

7/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

65%

The QQQ appears to be holding its up-trend, but notice all of the red down volume spikes recently in its daily chart, suggesting distribution by the funds.

QQQdaily03192014

26th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; $PNFP green line break-out

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

6/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

73%

Short and longer term trends remain up. PNFP had a green line break-out to an all-time high on Tuesday. Its IBD comp rating: 83.

Screen shot 2014-03-18 at 10.09.10 PM

 

25th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; recent green line break-outs $PANW and $INVN climb

GMI

6/6

GMI-2

4/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

68%

The QQQ backed away from the cliff on Monday and its short term up-trend continues. PANW, which broke above its green line (all-time high) again last week, continued to rise.

PANW03172014

As did INVN:

INVN03172014And SHEN:

SHEN03172014

Longer term up-trend of $QQQ intact; a new short term down-trend could develop with a weak Monday

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

4/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

63%

With the GMI  at 5 (of 6), the longer term up-trend remains intact. IBD sees the market uptrend under pressure and notes that the put/call ratio on Friday was approaching 1.0, a sign that a bounce may be coming as bearishness grows. I am largely in cash in my trading accounts, having had my positions in GLD and NUGT called away at Friday’s close.  We are in the post-earnings release period when the market often corrects.  As we get close to the end of the month and the end of the first quarter, the market will likely recover as it starts to anticipate new earnings reports.  I am waiting to enter positions in rocket stocks when they bounce from oversold levels.  I am also continuing to write some weekly call options. Here is the weekly GMI table:

GMI03142014A weak close on Monday would turn my QQQ short term count (U-24) into a new down-trend.

 

23rd day of $QQQ short term up-trend; strength in $INVN; mainly in cash

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

4/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

63%

Short and longer term trends remain up—for now. IBD now sees the market “uptrend under pressure.” While I remain 100% invested in mutual funds in my university pension, which I cannot trade often, I am largely in cash in my trading accounts. GLD has been very strong and my  holdings in GLD and NUGT  will be called away Friday as the weekly calls I sold expire way in the money.  GLD may be too extended for me to buy back and write calls again on Monday.  I sold half of my position in TQQQ on Friday morning because too many stocks that have broken out reversed below their break-out levels. The longer term market up-trend is still in place and I will buy back into the market when this weakness is over….

Recent green line break out INVN managed to rise on Thursday on above average volume.  INVN is worth watching for future purchase because of its unusual strength in a down market..

INVN03132014

22nd day of $QQQ short term up-trend; $GB holding geen line

GMI

6/6

GMI-2

6/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

69%

This daily chart of GB shows it to be holding its recent green line break-out. GB has an IBD composite rating of 90.

GBdaily30122014

21st day of $QQQ short term up-trend; 3D stocks, $SSYS and $DDD, look toppy

GMI

6/6

GMI-2

5/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

70%

I think the 3D stocks are finally topping.Look at these weekly charts of SSYS and DDD. Note the huge red spikes showing increasing volume on down weeks.  Beware the possible head and shoulders tops….

SSYS03112014DDDwkly03112014

20th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; $HIMX breaks out

GMI

6/6

GMI-2

7/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

73%

HIMX had a nice break-out of a consolidation above the green line on Monday.  Look at the volume spike on this daily chart. HIMX makes parts for Google glasses. It has an IBD comp rating of 89.

HIMXgreenline03102014

Green line break-outs last week: $SBGL,$WWE,$INVN,$BRKB,$STRT,%PRXL,$PL,$SAIA, $GTAT, $LSTR; 2007 type crash coming?

GMI

6/6

GMI-2

8/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

74%

These 10 stocks broke through multi-month bases to all-time highs last week. I draw a green line at an all-time peak not broken for at least three months, sometimes for years.  I then use TC2000 to put in an alert and send me an email when the green line is broken.  All of my students receive the email alerts. Not all of these stocks will continue rising.  Some will hover around their green line and some will retreat below it and still others will rise after testing the green line. I put these stocks in a watch list and monitor how they behave.  Once a stock surpasses its green line, it may rise for months because there is no over head supply of sellers who bought at higher prices. Also, for a stock to break to an all-time high, especially on high volume, someone may know something good about the company. These stocks are worthy of further research.

SBGLgreenlinewklyWWEgreenlinewklyBRKBgreenline break-out03062014 INVNgreenlinewklyBRKBgreenlinewklySTRTgreenlinewklyPRXLgreenlinewklyPLgreenlinewklySAIAgreenlinewklyLSTRgreenlinewkly

The GMI closed Friday at 6 (of 6) and the GMI-2 is at 8 (of 8).

GMI03072014With all this hysteria about a market top forming like it did in 2007, I thought you might like to compare the market pattern in 2007 to now.  Here is the weekly GMMA chart of the SPY in 2007. Note the danger sign that flashed well in advance when all of the short term averages (red) crossed below the longer term averages (blue):

GMMASPY2007topAnd here is  a current GMMA chart of the SPY.  See any resemblance? As the great bard once said, a coward dies a thousand deaths……

SPYGMMA03092014

18th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; $T2108 closer to over bought; $BRKB–green line break-out

GMI

6/6

GMI-2

8/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

77%

All of my GMI and GMI-2 indicators are now positive. One concern, however,  is that the T2108 Worden indicator is now at 77%.  This means that 77% of the NYSE stocks closed above their average price over the last 40 days.   The closer T2108 is to 90% the more over bought the market tends to be. Check out this monthly chart of T2108, available in the Worden TC2000 software.

T2108monthly03062014

Bought some BRKB on Thursday.  It had a nice green line break-out to an all-time high on above average volume. Check out its weekly chart.

BRKBgreenline break-out03062014

And its daily chart.

BRKBdaily03062014



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