3rd day of $QQQ short term down-trend; small-caps out-perform

GMI

3/6

GMI-2

3/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

42%

IBD still sees market up-trend under pressure. The GMI is still on a Buy signal from January, but is holding to a middle 3 our of 6.  The new QQQ short term down-trend must reach at least 5 days for me to be more confident about it. Interestingly, the IWM, Russell 2000 ETF , seems to be showing a lot of relative strength, having just broken above its green line top to an all-time high. Clearly, small-cap stocks are out-performing large-caps right now.

IWM03152015Here is the GMI table. The SPY has now closed below its 10 week average.

Screen shot 2015-03-15 at 9.40.04 PM

2nd day of $QQQ short term down-trend

GMI

3/6

GMI-2

4/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

47%

Indexes are bouncing from over-sold.

First day of new $QQQ short term down-trend; GMI at 2; Bio-techs, including $INGN resilient but has difficult announcement today

GMI

2/6

GMI-2

3/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

40%

IBD still sees “market uptrend under pressure.” With the GMI now at 2 it could flash a Sell signal with a second day below 3. The QQQ short term trend is now down but about 40% of these down trends since 2006 lasted 5 days or less. An indication of strength is that the biotechs came through this period strong. Fourteen biotechs hit new highs on Wednesday. Some of them that I have been following for a while and that are in strong RWB up-tends include: CBMG, TSRO, UTHR, QURE, ANAC, INGN , BLUE and RCPT.  Last December I wrote about INGN as a stock my stock buddy, Judy, had talked to me about. It was then at $30.25. It closed at $37.34 on Wednesday. The GMMA chart shows a nice RWB pattern and a green line breakout (GLB) to an all-time high in November. Way to go, Judy!!!! (After this post was first released, I found that INGN released some difficult news that is causing the stock to decline premarket.)

Screen shot 2015-03-12 at 6.09.39 AM

With the leading industry, biotech, (see industry chart below) still showing strength, this bull may only be resting.

Screen shot 2015-03-12 at 6.13.18 AM

24th day pf $QQQ short term up-trend; 4 stocks hitting new highs during the decline

GMI

3/6

GMI-2

3/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

39%

IBD sees market uptrend under pressure and says the put/call ratio reached 1.13 on Tuesday. This is possible bounce area. The QQQ short term trend could turn down with another weak day on Wednesday. Thus far, this decline has been mild. Check out this GMMA chart of the QQQ. (Click on chart to enlarge.)

Screen shot 2015-03-10 at 9.27.06 PM

Four stocks with good fundamentals hit new highs on Tuesday: UTHR, AMAG, MDVN, SWKS. All have RWB patterns. Could these be future leaders? One example, UTHR. Note the green line break-out.

Screen shot 2015-03-10 at 9.34.33 PMCan’t have a much more consistent RWB chart than SWKS:

Screen shot 2015-03-10 at 9.36.11 PMI’ll leave the other two to your imagination.

23rd day of $QQQ short term up-trend

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

3/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

49%

22nd day of $QQQ short term up-trend

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

3/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

49%

Neither AAPL or the QQQ  or SPY appear to be in an imminent down-trend. All are in RWB up-trends–for now.

Screen shot 2015-03-08 at 8.00.11 PMScreen shot 2015-03-08 at 8.00.40 PMScreen shot 2015-03-08 at 8.01.02 PM

And look at the dollar!

Screen shot 2015-03-08 at 8.07.14 PMThis is the pattern of a peaking stock.

Screen shot 2015-03-08 at 8.23.00 PM

The GMI is at 5 (of 6).

GMI03062015

21st day of $QQQ short term up-trend; Inane comparisons with the 2000 top

GMI

6/6

GMI-2

6/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

60%

I am tired of reading the hysterical pundits who claim that now that the Nasdaq Composite has retaken its 2000 high, the market  is a bubble and near a top again. Are they for real?  During the 6 months leading up to the March 2000 top, that index had a climax run, rising from an October low of 2632 to a March 2000 high of 4573 (see monthly chart below). That is an increase of 74%!  During the past six months in 2014, the Nasdaq has climbed from an October low of 4117 to a recent March high of of 5009. While nice, this is a rise of 22% and nowhere near the climax run experienced in 2000.   Market tops often come after a huge advance that brings everyone in.  It is yet to come this round.

COMPQX2000topCompare to current chart.

COMPQX2014

 

20th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; The strong dollar

GMI

6/6

GMI-2

6/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

61%

The dollar is in a major RWB up-trend, as shown by UUP.

UUPGMMA03042015

 

 

19th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; $GMCR breaks out early in 2009

GMI

6/6

GMI-2

7/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

63%

A reader asked me whether at the end of a major market decline I still look for green line break-outs.  Absolutely!  After a major decline there are few stocks at all-time highs.  That is where the new leaders are.  In March of 2009, I spotted GMCR breaking above its green line top to an all-time high. I even posted about it!

Check out this monthly chart of GMCR.

GMCRmonthly03032015

THE $LL debacle–GMMA gave clearer warning than Stage Analysis

GMI

6/6

GMI-2

7/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

64%

If you watched 60 Minutes on Sunday night you know why LL fell out of bed on Monday, down -25%. But should anyone have been holding LL stock recently?  My students would have probably been out of LL simply by looking at a weekly chart and applying Weinstein’s Stage Analysis technique. LL was below its 30 week moving average, which had topped out a year ago. LL closed below its 30 week average last week after spending a few weeks above it in January and February.  This could have caused a head-fake as a possible beginning Stage 2 advance, but note that LL was below its final green line top at around $120. I tell students only to hold stocks above a stock’s last green line top. The solid red line in this weekly chart is the critical 30 week moving average. Notice the strong Stage 2 up-trend throughout all of 2013.  I only own stocks that are in Stage 2 up-trends.

LLweekly03022015I decided to also look at the weekly modified GMMA chart for LL. I was struck by the fact that this chart did not show the recent head-fake in January and February.  The RWB pattern had clearly ended in 2013 and we never got a RWB pattern since. The GMMA chart clearly provided the better indication that one should not have been in LL since at least June, 2014, when a bearish BWR pattern became evident. Beware the whites of their charts!

LLGMMA03022015



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