QQQ short term up-trend may end with a down day on Tuesday. The 30 day moving average is flat and prone to whipsaws.
I updated the GLB Tracker Table. It now shows stocks that evidenced a strong week last week by hitting an all-time high on large volume, and that had a GLB last week or since 8/29. I could not bring myself to delete CLCD, up 197% since it passed its green line break-out point–a lucky pick! This list does not contain all GLB stocks that occurred during this period. It contains only those that have held their GLB (i.e., successful) and have strong technicals and/or fundamentals. The performance of the stocks in the GLB Tracker Table updates during the trading day. While the table appears daily to the right of this post, I thought it useful to show it below too. These are stocks at or close to their all-time highs that need to be researched before I purchase. One benefit of these stocks is that they are less likely to be extended because they have recently broken out above a prior all-time top and therefore may have been just launched on a new journey upward.
If I buy a GLB stock I immediately sell it if it trades back below its green line break-out point–no exceptions. If it then comes back above its green line on good volume, I might buy it back. This was the situation with GIMO.
I find that a daily chart can often lead me to be whipsawed and to sell a good stock too soon. It’s like checking one’s blood pressure or cholesterol too often. Look at how nice GIMO’s post break-out consolidation appears in this weekly chart. Up weeks occurred mostly with higher volume than with down weeks. No reason to sell out early if I had focused on the weekly pattern……..(luckily I bought it back)
The GMI remains on a Sell Signal but my QQQ short term trend indicator has just turned up! There is a huge divergence between the tech stocks, reflected in the QQQ, and in the large cap stocks measured by the SPY and DIA. Thus the QQQ closed back above its 10 week average while the SPY and DIA remain below their 10 week averages. This is a schizoid market! Either the QQQ will turn out to lead stocks back to a new up-trend or it will revert to the downward trend of the other indexes. Maybe this will all be resolved after the FED speaks later this week, or after the Presidential election? I am buying break-outs but am very defensive, with small positions and close stops.
No tags for this post.
My indicators are not oversold enough. T2108 is only down to 29% and the QQQ daily 10.4.4 stochastics is at 39. However, an analysis I have done found that about 4 in 10 QQQ declines since 2006 lasted 5 days or less. Once a decline passes 5 days it can go on for a much longer period and I am more confident to ride it with SQQQ. Note that 20 year US treasury bonds (TLT) are in a steep decline, predicting higher interest rates. Mr. Market detests higher interest rates…..
My long and short term indicators have turned down. I usually have more confidence in a short term trend change when it persists for 5 days but this tepid rebound looks to me more like a dead cat bounce? Note the lower volume on Monday’s rebound compared with that on Friday’s decline. For now, I wait safely on the sidelines and watching $SQQQ for a possible entry….
I have been writing for a long time that September is historically the weakest month of the market and more recently that the major indexes have been consolidating within their narrowing upper and lower Bollinger Bands. Well, the market finally tipped its hand on Friday and broke out into a downward direction. This daily chart of QQQ shows a high volume decline out of the recent channel formed by the 15.2 daily Bollinger Bands. The expansion (widening) of the bands often signals the beginning of a major move. Large declines on Fridays often lead to ugly Mondays when the public gets a chance to sell after pondering their portfolio losses over the weekend. So, where to now?
Bottoms often come in October when it may take 3rd quarter earnings release season to revive stocks. We are now in the post 2nd quarter earnings release lull and a decline typically sets up the next earnings propelled rise. So how can we know when the market is likely to begin a sustainable rise?
I watch several indicators very closely when the market enters a decline. If the daily put/call ratio, a contrary indicator, gets to 1.2 or greater the market often bounces at least for a day or so. The p/c ratio closed at 1.14 Friday, not too far from denoting an extreme level of bearishness by option traders. But the poll of newsletter writers, another contrary indicator, shows many more bulls than bears, a bearish sign.
The Worden T2108 indicator measures the percentage of NYSE stocks that closed above their simple 40 day moving average of closing prices. I consider T2108 to be a pendulum of the market and post it here every trading day. As this monthly chart shows, since its inception in 1987, T2108 rarely falls into single digits or climbs above 90%. I drew in red and green lines to show these extreme levels. When T2108 declines to 10% or lower, it is a screaming signal that the market is extremely oversold and near a bottom. I typically do not have the courage to buy stocks when that occurs because stocks are falling rapidly and the media pundits are typically predicting economic Armageddon, but I will consider buying a market ETF, like SPY. The market, unlike individual stocks, has always come back. Major declines in 2016 ended with T2108 at 6% or less. T2108 closed Friday at 37%, far from an extremely oversold reading.
I also look at the daily 10.4.4 stochastics indicator. The major indexes tend to bottom at least short term when their daily stochastics readings fall below 20. On Friday the stochastics for QQQ was 61, 60 for DIA and 64 for SPY, all far from oversold levels. While the market can do anything, I think we are currently closer to the beginning of a decline than to an end. But Mr. Market often proves me wrong. I remain a trading chicken. So for now my trading accounts are in cash….
A flat or down day on Monday will end the QQQ short term up-trend, it having lasted 46 days through Friday. More significant, the GMI is now at 2, and two consecutive days below 3 triggers a GMI Sell signal. The GMI helps me to determine the longer term trend of the markets. The QQQ and SPY have also now closed below their 10 week averages, a significant indicator of weakness. I rarely can make money buying stocks when QQQ is below its 10 week moving average.
No tags for this post.