11th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; have treasury bonds peaked?

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

8/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

63%

This daily chart of TLT, the ETF of the 20 year treasury bonds, is showing possible signs of the long awaited bottom in interest rates.

TLT02172015

As is IEF, the ETF for the 7-10 year treasury bonds.

IEF02172015

The price of bonds falls as investors fear a rise in interest rates.

GMMA charts show no market top in sight

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

8/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

64%

I read a lot of pundits who repeatedly claim that this market is topping. If they keep claiming this, someone will eventually be correct! But we technicians rely on indicators to guide our trading. We must always guard against marrying a scenario and be ready to change direction to be consistent with the market’s main trend. One of the methods I have found useful for timing the market is to use a modification of the the GMMA charts developed by the Australian  technician, Daryl Guppy.  Guppy charts plot 12 weekly exponential moving averages on a chart. Six are shorter term averages and 6 are longer term averages. I have added a 13th average, a simple average of length 1 to show me the closing price each week. I always plot the 6 shorter term averages in red and the longer term averages in blue.  A chart where the red lines are rising above and separated from the rising blue lines is showing a RWB advancing pattern. The reverse, a BWR pattern, is evidence of a declining pattern. I make the price bars white so they do not visually distract from the averages.

This chart of the top of the QQQ in 2000, shows how the RWB pattern failed and became a BWR pattern. This is what a market top looks like. The red lines converge, demonstrating little price movement over the different average lengths, and finally you get the red lines below the blue lines with a white area separating them. Note the re-emergence of the RWB pattern in 2003, after the bottom . (Click on chart to enlarge.)

Telechart2000QQQtopNow look at the 2007 top. Again we find the RWB pattern turning into a BWR pattern. Anytime the white space disappears and the red lines fall below the blue lines it is appropriate for me to become defensive.

Telechart2008topSo what is the current GMMA pattern showing? A clear continuing RWB advance! In fact, it looks like we have broken out of a consolidation where the red lines converged and have now turned up again. Note that a  RWB pattern  has persisted since early 2013.

Telechart2015

By the way, I like to use GMMA charts for analyzing individual stocks too.  See AAPL below.

AAPLgyppy02152015And TSLA–no more RWB!

TSLAguppy02152015

The entire bull to bear cycle in GLD is remarkably clear. Guess where we are now?!

GLDguppy02152015

With that said, I have begun to transfer some of my university pension funds back into mutual funds. The GMI has been on a Buy signal since January 23rd, and I have resisted it until now. Everyone has to sell down to their own comfort level.

GMI02132015

 

7th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; $PTLA taking off?

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

8/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

63%

Rally rolls on. PTLA is a stock my stock buddy Judy has talked to me about for a long time. They have an exciting drug under development. This weekly chart shows that the  stock may be getting ready to re-take its green line top to another all-time high. I own some.

PTLA02132015

6th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; $AAPL breaks out

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

8/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

57%

AAPL has quietly broken out to all-time highs.

AAPL02112015

5th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; channel break-out!

GMI

6/6

GMI-2

8/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

62%

The QQQ has broken up out of the channel! Buying TQQQ.

QQQ02092015

4th day of $QQQ short term up-trend

GMI

4/6

GMI-2

5/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

60%

Markets remain range bound. With moving averages pretty flat, the market remains prone to whip-saws.

3rd day of $QQQ short term up-trend; QQQ still in channel; $TMV-trading a rise in interest rates

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

6/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

63%

The QQQ failed to break out of its trading channel on Friday.

QQQ02062015Interest rates rose on Friday, reflected in falling bond prices. One way to play a future rise in rates and a decline in treasury bonds is through the triple leveled 20 yr U.S. bond bearish ETF, TMV. TMV rose more than 5% on Friday and +16% for the week.

TMV02062015

The GMI is at 5 (of 6) and remains on a Buy signal since January 23rd. I remain cautious and ready to act one way or the other. The QQQ closed just below its 10 week average.

GMI02082015

 

2nd day of $QQQ short term up-trend; channel break-out?

GMI

4/6

GMI-2

7/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

67%

It looks to me like the DIA and SPY broke out of their channels on Thursday.  Is the QQQ next?

DIA02052014 SPY02052014

The QQQ is lagging–for now:

QQQ02052015

New $QQQ short term up-trend, channel intact

GMI

5/6

GMI-2

6/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

58%

My indicators have never been whip-sawed so much.  With the QQQ in a channel, I do not believe this new short term up-trend is valid.  We shall see. Meanwhile, the GMI Buy signal remains in place.

QQQ02042015

$QQQ remains in channel

GMI

4/6

GMI-2

6/8

What is the GMI?
 

WORDEN T2108

62%

Tuesday was the 5th day of the current QQQ short term down-trend. The QQQ remains in the channel we have been seeing since December. (I lost internet access and could not post on Tuesday–sorry.)

QQQdaily02032014

 



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