The GMI remains at 6. Tuesday was the 57th day of the QQQQ up-trend. There were 315 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. 74% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose, along with 56% of the S&P 500 and 63% of the Dow 30 stocks. 62% of the IBD 100 stocks from 10/16 rose.
The GMI is back to 6, with 89-94% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advancing on Monday. There were 227 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. Monday was the 56th day in the QQQQ up-trend.
GMI: 5; IBD 100 stocks outperform
The GMI rose to 5, as 39% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Friday along with 33% of the S&P 500 and 20% of the Dow 30 stocks. There were 104 new yearly highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. However, only 49% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages, down from a high of 88% on October 16. The Daily QQQQ index is very close to turning negative. The next few days will tell the story. Last week I lightened up on my weaker stocks and was stopped out of several. It pays to be defensive when the indexes decline so much. However, the QQQQ up-trend completed its 55th day and the QQQQ has closed above its 10 week average for 12 straight weeks. During this time the QQQQ has advanced 8.7% and 69 of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have advanced, 41 of them are up 10% or more. In the same period, 74% of the S&P 500 stocks advanced, 30% rose more than 10%. So, the time since August 16 has been good to those of us who went long.
On Friday, the IBD 100 type stocks outperformed the Nasdaq 100 tech stocks. 58-69% of the stocks in four recent IBD 100 lists advanced on Friday, compared with only 39% of the Nasdaq 100 tech stocks. None of these lists has many new highs, however. The statistics in this table suggest that most stocks closed on Friday below their prices when the IBD 100 lists were published. It will be interesting to see whether Friday’s relatively stronger performance suggests that traders will be buying the stronger growth stocks in the next few weeks…..
GMI: 4; GMI-S: 44; Tough times for the IBD 100
The GMI declined to 4. Only 35% of the 248 stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago closed higher on Thursday than they closed 10 days ago. Thus, buying stocks at new highs 10 days ago has not been profitable–a major sign of market weakness. Only 90 stocks in my universe of 4,000 stocks hit a new high on Thursday. 46-51% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced. Only 36% of the stocks from the IBD 100 list on 10/16 rose on Thursday and only 28% closed higher than they did on 10/16–this market has been rough on IBD 100 growth stocks. In addition, an IJR short term indicator turned negative, reducing the GMI-S to 44. Thursday was the 54th day of the QQQQ up-trend.
GMI: 6; GMI-S: 50
A pretty rough day on Wednesday, although the GMI is still at 6. Only 12-23% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced. But there were still 204 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. The GMI-S fell to 50, signifying that only one half of the short term indicators for four indexes remain positive. I sold my weakest holding on Wednesday and will lighten up if this market continues to weaken. It is not unusual to see weakness at the beginning of the month after most earnings have come out. I will try to hold on for an expected end of year rally, but I will not fight the GMI…..
GMI: 6; Riding QLD
The GMI is still 6. Only 42% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Tuesday, along with 45% of the S&P 500 stocks and 37% of the Dow 30 stocks. Still, there were 231 new highs and only 20 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks. Only 64% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day average, down from 88% on 10/16. Only 40% of the IBD 100 stocks from 10/16 advanced on Tuesday and only 9 hit a new high–COGO,CELG,BLKB,AXR, JLL, HRT, BLUD, NVEC,
IAAC. Tuesday was the 52nd day of the current QQQQ up-trend. During that time the QQQQ has risen 10.4% but the ETF that approximates twice its movement advanced 19.8%. Once the up-trend was established, it became very comfortable for me to just ride the QLD.
GMI: 6; GMI-S back to 100
The GMI is still 6, as 68% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Monday, along with 60% of the S&P 500 stocks and 50% of the Dow 30 stocks. Only 153 stocks in my universe of 4,000 stocks hit a new high. Monday was the 51st day of the current QQQQ up-trend and the GMI-S is back to 100.
GMI: 6; GMI-S: 94; IBD 100 stock performance; Put/call ratio: .94
The GMI held at 6, but only 14-20% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced on Friday. There were 258 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. The GMI-S fell to 94, with the weakening of one of the short term indicators for the QQQQ. Still, Friday was the 50th day in the current QQQQ up-trend and the 11th week that it has closed above its 10 week average.
The IBD 100 stock lists that I have been following did a little better than the Nasdaq 100 stocks on Friday. 22-33% of the stocks in the four lists below advanced on Friday. The list from 10/16 had 14 new highs, but only 43% of these 100 stocks closed higher than they closed on 10/16 when the list was published. The 14 stocks from the 10/16 list that hit new highs on Friday were: HXM,CELG,DRIV,JLL,GRMN,ROG,WCG,TV,SIM,
Monday’s IBD says that the put/call ratio from Friday was .94. As long as there remains such a high amount of pessimism exhibited by the options players, this rally probably has further to go. Put/call ratios near one are rare and typically occur only after a sustained decline. This is a rally that traders love to hate…..
GMI: 6; Growth is alive
The GMI is still 6. There were 457 new yearly highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. 81% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, along with 69% of the S&P 500 stocks and 53% of the Dow 30 stocks. 68% of the IBD 100 stocks from 10/16 rose and there were 22 new highs among them. Taken together, it looks like the tech and growth stocks are rising..
GMI: 6; put/call ratio bullish?
The GMI is still at a maximum of 6. There were 364 new yearly highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. 63% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Wednesday, along with 58% of the S&P 500 and 70% of the Dow 30 stocks. 58% of the IBD 100 list stocks from 10/16 rose and 14 of these stocks hit a new high. Wednesday was the 48th day in the current QQQQ up-trend.
One of the reasons I was confident of a continued rise in the QQQQ is that the put/call ratio on Tuesday was a high .97. This means that 97 puts were traded for each 100 calls. Put options are bets on a stock’s decline while call options are bets on a rise. Option traders tend to be wrong at the extremes. A put/call ratio near 1.00 is a high reading and often correlated with a rise in the market. When many people bet on a decline, the market often rises. It is noteworthy that when this market shows any sign of weakness, many people bet on a further decline. Skepticism of the market’s rise tends to be bullish. You can find the put/call ratio each day in IBD in a small chart inside the S&P 500 chart on the General Market page…….