GMI: 6; GMI-S back to 100

The GMI is still 6, as 68% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Monday, along with 60% of the S&P 500 stocks and 50% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Only 153 stocks in my universe of 4,000 stocks hit a new high.  Gmi1030 Monday was the 51st day of the current QQQQ up-trend and the GMI-S is back to 100.

GMI: 6; GMI-S: 94; IBD 100 stock performance; Put/call ratio: .94

The GMI held at 6, but only 14-20% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced on Friday. Gmi1027_1 There were 258 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  The GMI-S fell to 94, with the weakening of one of the short term indicators for the QQQQ.  Still, Friday was the 50th day in the current QQQQ up-trend and the 11th week that it has closed above its 10 week average.

The IBD 100 stock lists that I have been following did a little better than the Nasdaq 100 stocks on Friday.  Ibdperf102722-33% of the stocks in the four lists below advanced on Friday.  The list from 10/16 had 14 new highs, but only 43% of these 100 stocks closed higher than they closed on 10/16 when the list was published.  The 14 stocks from the 10/16 list that hit new highs on Friday were:  HXM,CELG,DRIV,JLL,GRMN,ROG,WCG,TV,SIM,

CTSH,BLUD,WRLD,HCSG, CSH.

Monday’s IBD says that the put/call ratio from Friday was .94.  As long as there remains such a high amount of pessimism exhibited by the options players, this rally probably has further to go.  Put/call ratios near one are rare and typically occur only after a sustained decline.  This is a rally that traders love to hate…..

GMI: 6; Growth is alive

The GMI is still 6.  There were 457 new yearly highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Gmi1026_2 81% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, along with 69% of the S&P 500 stocks and 53% of the Dow 30 stocks.  68% of the IBD 100 stocks from 10/16 rose and there were 22 new highs among them.  Taken together, it looks like the tech and growth stocks are rising..

GMI: 6; put/call ratio bullish?

The GMI is still at a maximum of 6.  There were 364 new yearly highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Gmi1025_2 63% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Wednesday, along with 58% of the S&P 500 and 70% of the Dow 30 stocks.  58% of the IBD 100 list stocks from 10/16 rose and 14 of these stocks hit a new high.  Wednesday was the 48th day in  the current QQQQ up-trend.

One of the reasons I was confident of a continued rise in the QQQQ is that the put/call ratio on Tuesday was a high .97.  This means that 97 puts were traded for each 100 calls.  Put options are bets on a stock’s decline while call options are bets on a rise.  Option traders tend to be wrong at the extremes.  A put/call ratio near 1.00 is a high reading and often correlated with a rise in the market.  When many people bet on a decline, the market often rises.  It is noteworthy that when this market shows any sign of weakness, many people bet on a further decline.  Skepticism of the market’s rise tends to be bullish.  You can find the put/call ratio each day in IBD in a small chart inside the S&P 500 chart on the General Market page…….

GMI: 6; IBD100 has 13 new highs

The GMI is 6.  There were 237 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Gmi1026_1 Tuesday was the 47th day in the current QQQQ up-trend.  23% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose, along with 44% of the S&P 500 and 50% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Only 65% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their average price of the past 30 days, down from 88% on October 16.  The IBD 100 list from 10/16 had 46 advances AND 13 new highs. The new highs were:  VIP,NEU,ICLR,JWN,HXM,WCG,MS,ENR, AEOS,AMX,TV,HRT,NVEC……

GMI: 6;

The GMI is still 6.  Gmi1023 69% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose, along with 70% of the S&P 500 and 90% of the Dow 30 stocks.  There were 270 new yearly highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  70% of the IBD 100 stocks from 10/16 rose on Monday and there were 13 new highs.  Monday was the 46th day of the current QQQQ up-trend.

GMI: 6; IBD 100 performance; AAPL and GOOG

The GMI held at 6 even though few stocks rose on Friday.  There were 203 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks and only 13 new lows.  38% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Friday, along with 46% of the S&P 500 stocks and 66% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Gmi1020_1 The QQQQ has now closed above its 10 week average for 10 weeks and Friday was the 45th day in the current QQQQ up-trend.  Since August 16, the QQQQ has risen 8.9%, and 73% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have advanced;  41% advanced more than 10% and 25% advanced more than 15%.  During this same period, the ProShares ETF that attempts to double the performance of the QQQQ (QLD) advanced 16.9%, while the similar “ULTRA” ETF for the S&P 500 index ( SSO) rose 10.9% and the ETF for the Dow 30 index rose 11.7%.  Hence, by simply buying the QLD when the GMI signaled a rise and holding on during this rise, one could have received a 17% return–a return that beat 84% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks.  By buying the Ultra QQQQ ETF, I can beat 84% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks.  Why try to find the few individual stocks that outperform the QQQQ, when I can just ride the Ultra QQQQ ETF?  I can’t wait until the the GMI signals a down-trend so that I can switch to the Ultra short QQQQ ETF  (QID) and ride the QQQQ back down.

Meanwhile, the IBD 100 stocks have not done very well the past few months.  Ibdperf1020 On Friday, 38% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose, compared with 23-32% of four recent IBD 100 lists.  Only 43% of the stocks on the list from 10/16 closed higher than they closed on the day the list was published.  4% or fewer of the stocks on each list hit a new high on Friday, somewhat better than the Nasdaq 100 stocks (2).  74-82% closed above their average price of the past 30 days.  The four stocks on the list from 10/16 that hit a new high were :  HCSG, KNOT, AMX and TV.  The list from 10/2 included:  HCSG, KNOT, AMX  and CHL. The list from 8/14 added OKE. The fact that AMX was on all four lists suggests that this stock has had staying power dating back at least to 5/16.

I have been writing about GOOG and AAPL for sometime and have made some money trading them.  But I still make mistakes.  Last week with only days before expiration I wrote covered calls on AAPL and GOOG because the call options were providing incredibly high time premiums for just a few days, through Friday.  I wrote covered calls because I was influenced by some media pundits who said the market had to weaken, and by writing calls I limited my gains on these two stocks.   How many times do I need to remember to heed Darvas’ advice to eliminate all outside opinions from my trading.  When I just follow the market myself I do much better.  The opinions of others tend to destroy my judgment……………..

GMI:6; GMI-S: 100

The GMI is still 6 and the GMI-S is back to 100.  There were 268 new yearly highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Gmi1019_1 5% of the Nasdaq 100 and Dow 30 stocks advanced on Thursday, along with 46% of the S&P 500 stocks.   48% of the IBD 100 list from 10/16 advanced on Thursday.

GMI: 6; GMI-S: 94

The GMI remains at 6, but the GMI-S fell 6, to 94. Gmi1018_1 This decline reflects the weakness in one of the short term indicators for the QQQQ. Only 44% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Tuesday, compared with 56% of the S&P 500 stocks and 50% of the Dow 30 stocks.  46% of the IBD 100 list from 10/16 advanced.  There were 369 new yearly highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. Tuesday was the 43rd day in the current QQQQ up-trend and the 10th week that it has closed above its 10 week average.

GMI: 6; Cramer right?

The GMI is still 6, but few stocks rose on Tuesday.  Only 14% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose, along with 32% of the S&P 500 and 40% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Only 20% of the IBD 100 stocks from 10/16 rose.  Tuesday was the 42nd day of the current QQQQ up-trend.  Gmi1017_1 Cramer may have again signaled the short term top with his bullish comments on the Today Show last week….



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