GMI: 5; GMI-S: 44: QQQQ down-trend?

The GMI fell to 5 and the GMI-S fell 19, to 44.  Gmi0212 26% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Monday, along with 37% of the S&P 500 and 43% of the Dow 30 stocks. There were only 109 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  The GMI-S fell to 44, as none of the four short term indicators for the QQQQ remain positive. Monday was the first day in the new QQQQ down-trend, but the moving averages are flat, indicating no strong up or down-trend.   The QQQQ remains within its horizontal channel.  Only 41 of the stocks from the IBD 100 list from 2/05 rose on Monday and only 46% closed above their price on 2/05.  Only 51% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages.

Please note my disclaimers at the bottom of yesterday’s post.

GMI: 6; GMI-S: 63: QQQQ in a channel; NUAN–cup with handle?

This has been a frustrating period for riding a trend in the QQQQ.  Even though the GMI is 6, the QQQQ has made no progress since late November. Gmi0209_1  It is in  a horizontal channel with resistance around 44.71 and support around  43.33.  Until one of these levels is decisively broken, it will be difficult to make money trading tech/growth stocks.  Still, the Dow and S&P 500 type stocks remain in an old and weakening upward trend and it is there that I probably have the best chance of riding a trend.  On Friday, 12% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced along with 19% of the S&P 500 stocks and 13% of the Dow 30 stocks.  There were 265 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. The GMI-S fell to 63, with weakness in the short term indicators for the QQQQ and DIA on Friday. The QQQQ is back below its critical 10 week moving average. This is not the time to be brave and make large bets in either direction…

Nevertheless, I did find another stock that appears to have broken out of a cup with handle base of about nine months. NUAN (see weekly chart) has a large prior up-trend,  Nuancupand a close above the top of the handle (pivot point) on extraordinary volume last week.  It will be interesting to see if NUAN can buck the malaise evident in the general tech indexes.

See my disclaimers at the bottom of this post. 

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GMI: 6

The GMI remains at 6.  48% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks, 45% of the S&P 500 stocks, but only 27% of the Dow 30 stocks rose on Thursday.  There were 327 new highs in Gmi0208_2my universe of 4,000 stocks. Thursday was the 5th day in the current QQQQ up-trend. 

See my disclaimers at the bottom of my prior post.

GMI:6; GMI-S: 94;

The GMI held at 6 and the GMI-S rose to 94.  Gmi0207 79% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Wednesday, along with 60% of the S&P 500 and 43% of the Dow 30 stocks.  68% of the IBD 100 stocks from the list published on 2/5 advanced.  There were 477 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks, the largest number since 12/5, when there were 554.  Wednesday was the 4th day in the current QQQQ short term up-trend. 

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GMI: 6; RATE climbs; CEPH–another cup with handle?

The GMI is still 6. There were a healthy 379 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. Gmi0206_1 44% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced, along with 61% of the S&P 500 and 53% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Tuesday was  the third day (U-3) in the current QQQQ up-trend.   But its 10, 30 and 50 day averages are flat and almost identical.  RATE, the stock I discussed on Sunday evening,  broke out of a cup with handle formation on high volume on Tuesday. CEPH appears to be another cup with handle formation in the making, with a possible break out point of 78.40.

See my disclaimers in my prior post.

GMI: 6; ATHR breaks out; RIMM turning?

The GMI is still at the maximum reading of 6.  Only 45% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Monday along with 43% of the S&P 500 and 57% of the Dow 30 stocks.  54% of the stocks in the IBD 100 list from 2/5 also advanced.  There were 350 new 52 week highs Gmi0205 in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Monday was the second day (U-2) in the current QQQQ up-trend.  Note that I have added to my market index table the count of the number of weeks that the SPY closed above or below its 10 week average.  Clearly, the SPY has been in a sustained  up-trend much longer  than the QQQQ, 24 weekly closes versus 1 weekly close above their 10 week averages.  ATHR broke out on Monday on very high volume.  RIMM may be resuming its up-trend. 

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GMI: 6; GMI-S: 88; Focused on QQQQ and missed moves in SPY and DIA; IBD 100 lists doing well; RATE- cup with handle?

The GMI is back to 6, as the QQQQ turned positive.  64% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Friday, along with Gmi0202_1 59% of the S&P 500 and 50% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Friday was day one (U-1) of the new QQQQ short term up-trend.  Note, however, that the 10, 30 and 50 day averages of the QQQQ are flat and fairly similar,  indicating little movement in this index over the past 50 days. The QQQQ has closed back above its 10 week average, a positive sign.  However, by focusing solely on the QQQQ, I ignored the terrific performance of the SPY and DIA.  The SPY and DIA have closed above their 10 week averages for 24 consecutive weeks!  During this clear up-trend the Proshares ultra ETF’s have zoomed:  Spy, +11% (SSO, +22%) and DIA, +11.5% (DDM, +23%).  While I made money holding the Ultra QQQQ ETF, QLD, during much of this same period, I exited it in late December when the QQQQ closed below its 10 week average.  The QQQQ has been relatively flat since late November.  So, during most of this entire period the GMI held at 5 or above, and I should have been trading the SPY or DIA ultra ETF’s, which never weakened……….

I have added today’s new IBD 100 list to my performance table. Clearly, the IBD 100 lists have been doing better lately.  The majority of the stocks in all but one of the seven lists rose on Friday.  With the exception of the list published on 5/16, the majority of all stocks in these lists closed Friday above where they closed when their respective list was published. Ibdperf0202 About two thirds or more of the stocks on each list closed above their average price of the past 30 days.  The new list, of course, has done best, with 35 new highs on Friday and 93% of its stocks above their 30 day averages.  This outperformance of the newest list is expected, because IBD adds only the strongest stocks to each new list.  Keep in mind, though, that each new list also deletes underperforming stocks and that the overall performance of each list should therefore outperform the general market indexes, which only rarely delete underperforming stocks. Thus, only 6 of the Nasdaq 100 index stocks hit new highs on Friday and only 62% closed above their 30 day averages.  For now, it looks like the IBD 100 type of fast growing companies is doing well….

I noticed this weekend that RATE may be setting up a cup with handle pattern.  Ratecup A break out above the handle at around 42 on above average volume might signal the beginning of a new move.  I have learned some painful lessons, however, not to anticipate break-outs.  I can always set an alert to notify me if the stock closes above 41.91 so that I can verify the necessary increased volume. ATHR, the other cup with handle possibility I wrote about, is still setting up.

See my disclaimers at the bottom of my prior post.

GMI: 5; GMI-S: 88; Split market

This is a very split market with the Nasdaq 100 stocks being laggards.  Gmi0201 The GMI is still 5 and there were 461 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  But only 49% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, compared with 73-74% of the S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks. GOOG has now fallen, along with RIMM and AAPL.   When the strongest stocks weaken, the rest of the market usually cannot keep rising.  But all of my short term indicators for SPY, DIA and IJR are positive.  Will the QQQQ follow or lead these other ETF’s?

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GMI: 5; Turn coming?

The GMI stayed at 5 today, but the GMI-S rose to 75.  Gmi0131_1 75-77% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose on Wednesday.  Wednesday was the 5th day in the current QQQQ down-trend.  Another up day in the QQQQ will turn that daily indicator positive. 56% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks are now above their 30 day averages.  However, if GOOG cannot rise after the good earnings it released Wednesday afternoon, it will be another sign of weakness in the leaders.  RIMM and AAPL have already rolled over.

See my disclaimers at the bottom of my previous post.

GMI:5; QQQQ stalled

The GMI is still 5.  My indicators are resting on support and could go either way.  Gmi0130_1 The 10, 30 and 50 day averages for the QQQQ are almost identical, indicating little change over these time periods.  From 11/22 through Tuesday’s close, the QQQQ has declined 2.46%, and in that time only 36% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have risen more than 1%.  We should not bet against the market trend!  When the index breaks from this long plateau, it will probably be a large move.  Tuesday was the 4th day in the current QQQQ down-trend.

See my disclaimers at the bottom of my prior post.



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