Video post is a hit; waiting for a strong signal

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Thank you for the terrific feedback I received on my video.   If you received the post by email and could not access the video, please go directly to the blog site at www.wishingwealthblog.com and go to Monday’s post. I plan to post a video every Monday morning.

We had a nice bounce from oversold on Monday.   It will take a while to see if this is a real turn, however.   I am waiting until things move back up towards resistance to see if things can break through.   If stocks start to weaken again, I will buy some QID to make money as the Nasdaq 100 index stocks decline. This is the time for me to wait on the sidelines and to watch carefully for a signal. Monday was the 26th day of the current QQQ short term down-trend.

 

 

 

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My first YouTube Vlog (video blog) Post: Sell in May and Go Away?

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The put/call ratio is at an extreme level, about 1.3, implying a bounce soon. It is a contrary indicator such that when there are more puts than calls, like on Friday, the market is likely to rebound.   And the T2108 is very low, at 16%. The GMI is now zero for the first time since December 15, 2011.   With all of my indicators negative, is this the time to short stocks or the stock indexes?   With my son’s help, I have published my first TA video post, on the current market and the infamous “Sell in May and Go Away” mantra.   Let me know if you want more videos and any suggestions for making them more useful to you.View it full screen to see my charts clearly.

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T2108 getting oversold at 19%

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Once the Worden T2108 Indicator falls below 20% the market is getting very oversold.   The last time T2108 was below 20% was last October.   Some bottoms occur around this area, but if it breaks below 10% I will start to go long QLD, even with a GMI sell signal in place. The market just does not remain that oversold for long.   I will then take a small position and only add to it at higher prices.   I would only do this with an index ETF, not an individual stock.   Individual stocks can go extinct, but not the entire market. Below is a weekly chart of the T2108 indicator.

 

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20th Day of QQQ short term down-trend; looking very weak and ominous for the bull case

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With the GMI at 1 and the GMI2 at 0 I am very reluctant to hold stocks.   My trading accounts have been in cash for over a week.   My university pension accounts remain invested in mutual funds, but I am considering raising some cash if we get a good bounce this week (see below).   Too many sectors look weak, especially the commodities, suggesting to me a weakening worldwide economy. The down-trend in gold has also become stronger. As this daily chart of the QQQ shows, the 30 day average (red line) is now curving down and touching the 50 day average (green dots), and the shorter term, 4 and 10 day averages, are now declining below the important 30 day average. Compare the pattern of the past few weeks with that of the preceding time period.   It does not take a skilled technician to see that the market is no longer in an up-trend. The AAPL chart is very similar to this one. The leaders are no longer charging ahead. This is no time to be brave……

Nevertheless, the QQQ daily 10.4 stochastic is at   oversold levels (just below 20, not shown) and this usually portends some kind of short term bounce in the underlying Nasdaq 100 index, perhaps back to the 30 day average. (The T2108, at 35%,   remains in neutral territory and suggests to me that the market is far from a real bottom.) If the QQQ rallies this week, I may take some of my university pension money off the table.   We have been taught that we must always be invested and cannot time the market—rubbish!!! All successful speculators found that there was a time to exit the market or to be short.   This, I believe, is one of those times. Once a market decline begins, no one knows, except by lucky guess, when and where it will end. Trend followers wait for signs of a turn before they act.

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