GMI: 6; ATHR breaks out; RIMM turning?
The GMI is still at the maximum reading of 6. Only 45% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Monday along with 43% of the S&P 500 and 57% of the Dow 30 stocks. 54% of the stocks in the IBD 100 list from 2/5 also advanced. There were 350 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. Monday was the second day (U-2) in the current QQQQ up-trend. Note that I have added to my market index table the count of the number of weeks that the SPY closed above or below its 10 week average. Clearly, the SPY has been in a sustained up-trend much longer than the QQQQ, 24 weekly closes versus 1 weekly close above their 10 week averages. ATHR broke out on Monday on very high volume. RIMM may be resuming its up-trend.
GMI: 6; GMI-S: 88; Focused on QQQQ and missed moves in SPY and DIA; IBD 100 lists doing well; RATE- cup with handle?
The GMI is back to 6, as the QQQQ turned positive. 64% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Friday, along with 59% of the S&P 500 and 50% of the Dow 30 stocks. Friday was day one (U-1) of the new QQQQ short term up-trend. Note, however, that the 10, 30 and 50 day averages of the QQQQ are flat and fairly similar, indicating little movement in this index over the past 50 days. The QQQQ has closed back above its 10 week average, a positive sign. However, by focusing solely on the QQQQ, I ignored the terrific performance of the SPY and DIA. The SPY and DIA have closed above their 10 week averages for 24 consecutive weeks! During this clear up-trend the Proshares ultra ETF’s have zoomed: Spy, +11% (SSO, +22%) and DIA, +11.5% (DDM, +23%). While I made money holding the Ultra QQQQ ETF, QLD, during much of this same period, I exited it in late December when the QQQQ closed below its 10 week average. The QQQQ has been relatively flat since late November. So, during most of this entire period the GMI held at 5 or above, and I should have been trading the SPY or DIA ultra ETF’s, which never weakened……….
I have added today’s new IBD 100 list to my performance table. Clearly, the IBD 100 lists have been doing better lately. The majority of the stocks in all but one of the seven lists rose on Friday. With the exception of the list published on 5/16, the majority of all stocks in these lists closed Friday above where they closed when their respective list was published. About two thirds or more of the stocks on each list closed above their average price of the past 30 days. The new list, of course, has done best, with 35 new highs on Friday and 93% of its stocks above their 30 day averages. This outperformance of the newest list is expected, because IBD adds only the strongest stocks to each new list. Keep in mind, though, that each new list also deletes underperforming stocks and that the overall performance of each list should therefore outperform the general market indexes, which only rarely delete underperforming stocks. Thus, only 6 of the Nasdaq 100 index stocks hit new highs on Friday and only 62% closed above their 30 day averages. For now, it looks like the IBD 100 type of fast growing companies is doing well….
I noticed this weekend that RATE may be setting up a cup with handle pattern. A break out above the handle at around 42 on above average volume might signal the beginning of a new move. I have learned some painful lessons, however, not to anticipate break-outs. I can always set an alert to notify me if the stock closes above 41.91 so that I can verify the necessary increased volume. ATHR, the other cup with handle possibility I wrote about, is still setting up.
See my disclaimers at the bottom of my prior post.
GMI: 5; GMI-S: 88; Split market
This is a very split market with the Nasdaq 100 stocks being laggards. The GMI is still 5 and there were 461 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. But only 49% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, compared with 73-74% of the S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks. GOOG has now fallen, along with RIMM and AAPL. When the strongest stocks weaken, the rest of the market usually cannot keep rising. But all of my short term indicators for SPY, DIA and IJR are positive. Will the QQQQ follow or lead these other ETF’s?
GMI: 5; Turn coming?
The GMI stayed at 5 today, but the GMI-S rose to 75. 75-77% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose on Wednesday. Wednesday was the 5th day in the current QQQQ down-trend. Another up day in the QQQQ will turn that daily indicator positive. 56% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks are now above their 30 day averages. However, if GOOG cannot rise after the good earnings it released Wednesday afternoon, it will be another sign of weakness in the leaders. RIMM and AAPL have already rolled over.
See my disclaimers at the bottom of my previous post.
GMI:5; QQQQ stalled
The GMI is still 5. My indicators are resting on support and could go either way. The 10, 30 and 50 day averages for the QQQQ are almost identical, indicating little change over these time periods. From 11/22 through Tuesday’s close, the QQQQ has declined 2.46%, and in that time only 36% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have risen more than 1%. We should not bet against the market trend! When the index breaks from this long plateau, it will probably be a large move. Tuesday was the 4th day in the current QQQQ down-trend.
See my disclaimers at the bottom of my prior post.
GMI: 5; GMI-S: 50; 3rd day of QQQQ down-trend
The GMI is still at 5. 50-59% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced on Monday. The GMI-S fell 6, as one of the four short term indicators for SPY turned negative. Note, however, that all four indicators for IJR (small-cap stocks) remained positive. Monday was the 3rd day (D-3) in the current QQQQ down-trend.
GMI: 5; GMI-S: 56; Nibbling at QID again
The GMI remains at 5, and the GMI-S rose to 56 because of the strength in the small-cap index ETF (IJR). There were 115 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday. 43% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Friday, along with 49% of the S&P 500 stocks but only 27% of the Dow 30 stocks. Only 42% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages, down from 77% on January 12. Friday was the 2nd day in the QQQQ down-trend. With the leaders, RIMM and AAPL, looking weak and toppy, this market may be getting ready to roll over. I am beginning to nibble again on the inverse ultra short QQQQ ETF, QID.
Please note my disclaimers at the end of my prior post.
GMI: 5; GMI-S: 50; Scary market
The GMI declined to 5, and the GMI-S fell 25 to 50. Only 7% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, along with 18% of the S&P 500 stocks and 10% of the Dow 30 stocks. Only 14% of the IBD 100 stock list from 12/18 rose and only 49% closed above their price when the list was published on 12/18. Still, there were 253 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. The Daily QQQQ Index turned negative again, but its trend is still questionable. The 30 day moving average of the QQQQ is flat and the index is gyrating up and down along this line. The DIA and SPY are also starting to weaken, however. So, this may be the beginning of a meaningful decline in all of these indexes. The QQQQ is back below its 10 week average, a key sign of weakness. We will have to wait a few more days to see if the GMI weakens further. Now is not the time to make large bold bets in either direction.
GMI: 6; GMI-S: 75; Whipsawed again
The GMI returned to 6 and the GMI-S rose to 75. The QQQQ appears to be starting another up-trend (U-1). It also looks like GOOG may have another earnings related bounce–it reports on 1/31. There were 303 new highs on Wednesday in my universe of 4,000 stocks. 80-90% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose. The 30 day moving average for the QQQQ is flat and when that happens the index often times goes back and forth around its 30 day average. These whipsaw moves are very frustrating and hard to trade profitably. As long as the GMI is above 3, it may be better to stay long in the other ultra long index ETF’s; MVV, SSO and DDM. Their underlying indexes are exhibiting consistent up-trends.
See bottom of my prior post for my disclaimers.
GMI: 5; Day 1 of QQQQ down-trend?
The GMI fell to 5, as the Daily QQQQ Index turned negative. Still, there were 208 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. And the GMI-S rebounded to 63, with strength in the small-cap stocks (IJR). This looks like the first day in a new QQQQ down-trend (D-1), but time will tell.
See my disclaimers at the bottom of today’s post.