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8th day of QQQ short term up-trend; GLD rebound over?

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On December 23rd, the GMI flashed a buy signal.   I remain invested long in my university pension and hold several long positions in my trading accounts.   AAPL has helped to drive the Nasdaq 100 index (QQQ) higher.   GLD may be reaching the end of its rebound from oversold levels.   With its stochastic at 89, I am looking for signs of a reversal before I short GLD.

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7th day of QQQ short term up-trend; ASPS and NGLS

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This up-turn looks like it has legs. I am accumulating some QLD, given that the GMI gave a buy signal on December 23.   AAPL is coming back and helping the QQQ to rise.   ASPS faked a high volume down-side break, as it recovered strongly on Thursday.   If it can break above its top Bollinger Band and recent peak of 50.82, it may have a ways to go. I added to ASPS on Thursday.   I also own NGLS, a natural gas stock which is showing signs of strength and is near its all-time high. See the weekly chart below.

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6th day of QQQ short term up-trend; ASPS falters

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The up-trend continues.   Four stocks came up in my new high and good fundamentals scan: ISRG, ARG, WPZ, DXPE.

Not all stocks did well on Wednesday. After about 10 weeks of a rise, ASPS finally weakened.   Note the high volume break below the narrow Bollinger Band consolidation. Click on daily chart to enlarge. The stock has now closed below its critical 30 day average (red line) for the first time since October.

 

 

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5th day of QQQ short term up-trend; GMI buy signal still in place

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I am more confident of this new QQQ short term up-trend now that it has reached the 5th day.   There were 262 new 52 week highs on Tuesday.   The GMI flashed a buy signal on December 23 and remains in place.   Only 1 stock passed my new high with great fundamentals scan, CMG.   However, CMG reversed   down on Tuesday after meeting resistance at its top Bollinger band.   Three stocks came up on my Rocket Scan that were also on my IBD50/IBD NewAmerica watchlists from the past year or so:   LQDT,PSMT,JAZZ.

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GMI at 6; WishingWealth GMI rocks; Gold in decline

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The GMI remains at 6 and there is still a bullish signal in place.   I reviewed the performance of the GMI during this break and found it to have performed quite well since I began posting it in 2006.   I will eventually publish the findings.   For now, I will just say that the WishingWealth General Market Index (GMI) handily beat a buy and hold approach while reducing risk by keeping me out of the market during the major declines in this period.   I will present the data   and the key decision rules that I used, in my presentation at the Worden 2012 Conference in DC in April.

Meanwhile, the QQQ short term up-trend has now reached 4 days (U-4).   Nevertheless, the QQQ has closed below its critical 10 week average for 3 weeks.   In contrast, the SPY has closed above its 10 week average for 2 weeks.   So, the large cap index has been outperforming the tech stocks, for now.   The Worden T2108 indicator is at 56%, in neutral territory, and 72% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed with their MACD above its signal line, a sign of short term strength. However, the daily stochastic for the QQQ is nearing the overbought range and I think this two week rebound from oversold may be coming to an end.   With the GMI-2 at 3, I remain cautious now with only a few hedged long positions.   My university pension still remains invested in mutual funds, for now.

If you want to see why I am   bearish on gold, take a look at this daily GMMA chart of GLD.

(Click on chart to enlarge.) Note that the short term averages (red) are far below the longer term averages (blue). Prior recent support levels have been broken. The multi-year up-trend has likely ended and I own a put option on GLD.

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