GMI: 2+; Signs of an up-turn?

The GMI rose to 2+ and it looks like the market is on the verge of a turn.  53% (9/17) of the stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago closed higher yesterday than they did 10 days earlier, suggesting that stocks hitting new highs are holding their own.  Since this stat is based on only 17 stocks, I hesitated to call this indicator positive.  Gmi0319_2 There were 113 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks, the most since February 26.  The GMI-S has moved up to 25.  My IBD mutual fund index also is very close to turning positive.  We maybe getting the end of first quarter/new earnings release bounce I wrote about yesterday.  While the QQQQ remains in a down-trend, I am buying selective growth stocks, rather than shorting the index.  I am also writing covered calls for income in my IRA.

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GMI: 1; IBD100 performance; Bounce coming?

The GMI remains at one.  On Friday, 28-37% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced.  Gmi0316 There were only 71 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. The QQQQ is in its 14th day of a down-trend and has closed below its 10 week average for three weeks.  Only 23 % of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages, up from a low of 13% on March 13. 

The IBD 100 stock lists are doing somewhat better than the Nasdaq 100 stocks.  More of them (7) hit new highs on Friday and a larger percentage closed above their 30 day averages.  Ibdperf0316

While the markets are in down trends, I am somewhat reticent to short stocks.  I have to suspect that with the end of the first quarter coming and earnings due in April, we should get another  bounce soon.

See my disclaimers at the bottom of my prior post.

GMI: 1; Trend still down

The GMI is still 1.  67-75% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose on Wednesday.  Wednesday was the 13th day in the QQQQ down-trend.  Gmi0314 There were 29 new highs and 142 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Will Wednesday’s bounce hold?  No one knows.  The trend is down until it changes.

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GMI: 1; GMI-S: 0; Short or in cash

The GMI is still 1 and the GMI-S has returned to zero.  Gmi0313 Only 3-4% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose on Tuesday.  Only 13% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks and 46% of this week’s IBD 100 stock list closed above their 30 day averages.  Tuesday was the 11th day in the current QQQQ down-trend.  It remains to be seen whether these declines will surpass the lows of last week.  Right now there is so much technical damage to the indexes that I am either short or in cash. 

See my disclaimers at the bottom of yesterday’s post.

GMI: 1; GMI-S: 25; X and TSO; IBD 100 new highs

The GMI is still 1 and the GMI-S rose to 25.  Still, the trend is down in the major indexes. Gmi0312  Monday was the 10th day in the QQQQ down-trend. In spite of the general market down-trend, two stocks that are bucking this trend are X and TSO, both of which I own.  It remains to be seen how far this bounce will go and I am mainly in cash.  I also own puts on some weak stocks.  The only way to go short in an IRA is through buying put options.

Any stock that could come through the recent market declines and then hit a new 52 week high is showing notable strength.  The following 14 recent IBD 100 list stocks hit a new high on Monday:  JSDA,BTJ,HURN,GLP,DECK,MIDD,TSO,ETP,AVT,BWP,WCG,FDS,SIMO, CCK.  If I were looking for stocks to buy, I would start researching this list.

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GMI:1; Minimal changes

The GMI remains at one.  75-87% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced on Thursday.  Gmi0308_1 Thursday was the 8th day in the current QQQQ down-trend. 

GMI: 1; GMI-S: 0

The GMI remains at one.  Only 35-40% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 stock indexes rose on Wednesday.  There were only 49 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks and 31 new lows.  Only 11% of these stocks are in a short term uptrend and only 34% closed above their 10 week averages.  Gmi0307_1 The QQQQ and SPY are in their second week below their 10 week averages.  The QQQQ down trend is in its 7th day.  I am mainly in cash and looking for shorts.

See my disclaimers at the bottom of my prior post.

GMI: 1;GMI-S: 0

The GMI remains at one, and the GMI-S is now zero.  All of my short term indicators for four indexes are negative.  Gmi0306_1 The bounce on Tuesday is far from signifying a change in trend.  It will take a lot of time for the technical damage to be healed.  I am looking for an opportunity to short this market once it rebounds to resistance levels. I would be interested in QID below 54 as a bet for the QQQQ to fall again.

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GMI: 1; GMI-S: 13; IBD 100 stocks not safe either; Cash or short

The GMI is one, and the GMI-S is 13.  Only 14% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages and only 20% are in an up-trend, the lowest percentage since last July.  There were only 45 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks, and 60 new lows.  Only 12% of the 369 stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago closed higher than they did 10 days ago.  This is clearly not the type of market to invest in growth stocks with the hope they will hit new highs.  Gmi0302_1 Both the SPY and QQQQ closed below their 10 week averages.  Only 35% of the stocks in my universe closed above their 10 week averages.  Friday was the 4th day in the current QQQQ down-trend.

The IBD 100 stocks did not offer a refuge from this market decline.  As the accompanying table shows, few of the stocks in the IBD 100 stock  lists I have been following did better than the Nasdaq 100 stocks.  Only 6-15% of the stocks in these lists rose on Friday, compared with 9% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks. Ibdperf0302 There were  a maximum of 4 new highs and only 19-24% of the the stocks in each list closed above their 30 day averages, slightly above the 14% for the Nasdaq 100 stocks.  Under 50% of the stocks in the lists published since November closed higher than on the day the list was published.

Buying stocks in the current market down-trend represents to me fighting the odds.  Since about 70% of all stocks go with the market averages, one should be in cash or short.  There is plenty of time to go long once a new up-trend establishes itself.

See my disclaimers at the bottom of yesterday’s post.

GMI: 1; In cash

The GMI remains at one.  Only 24-34% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced on Thursday.  There were 54 new highs and 77 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Only 43% of the stocks in my universe closed above their 10 week averages.  Gmi0301_2 The real reasons behind the markets plunge may be yet to be disclosed.  Time to stay in cash.

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