GMI: 5; 78% of Nasdaq 100 stocks down since 2/22

The GMI is still 5, and the QQQQ is in its Gmi0330 third day in its short term down-trend.  Furthermore, the QQQQ,  SPY  and DIA index ETF’s have all closed below their 10 week averages.  During such periods I am unlikely to make money by staying long.  The 30 day average for the QQQQ has now completed a rounding top and is now declining.  Since the Nasdaq 100 index reached its closing peak on February 22, that index has declined 4.16% and 78% of the Nasdaq 100 component stocks closed Friday below their close on 2/22; one half are down 5% or more from 2/22.  Don’t fight the trend of the indexes–go with the odds.

Blogdisclaimer

GMI: 5?

The GMI declined to 5, as it looks like the Daily QQQQ Index is probably negative.  Only 3-16% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 Indexes rose on Wednesday.  Gmi0328 While I usually like to see two down days before I call a down-trend, the index looks so weak that I am comfortable calling the change in trend.  The QQQQ and SPY are now below their 10 week averages. I am closing out my long positions.

See the bottom of yesterday’s post for my disclaimers.

GMI: 6

GMI is still 6, but only 17-23% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose on Tuesday. Gmi0327Tuesday was the 5th day in the current QQQQ up-trend.

Blogdisclaimer

GMI: 6; GMI-L: 100; Markets in Stage 2 up-trend

The GMI remains at 6 and the GMI-L is back to 100.  Thus, most of my short and long term indicators are positive.  Gmi0323 My long term trend indicator is based on Stan Weinstein’s stage analysis (see book to right).  Stan used the 30 week moving average as the best indicator of a stock’s or the market’s trend.  The recent steep decline in the major indexes caused my short term daily indicators to flash negative.  However, Weinstein’s indicators stayed positive throughout the decline.  In fact, the major indexes all found support at their rising 30 week averages.  Thus, as this chart of the Nasdaq 100 index shows, the markets remain in a Weinstein Stage 2 up-trend.  I never own stocks when they or the market are below their 30 week averages. Qqqqstage2 The recent support found at the 30 week average in all of the major stock indexes suggests to me that that the up-trend remains intact.  In my trading account I get in or out of stocks based on my daily indicators. In my long term mutual funds, however, I only get out of the market when the 30 week averages flash trouble.  This rule got me out of the market in 2000 and back in in 2003. 

See my disclaimers at the bottom of my prior post.

GMI: 6; GMI-S: 75; Going long

For the first time since February 26, the GMI is back to the maximum reading of 6.  The GMI-S is at 75; all four index ETF’s are in synch.  94-97% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose on Wednesday.  The end of first quarter Gmi0321 and anticipatory earnings release season rally I have been anticipating is here.  There were 245 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  57% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have now closed above their 30 day averages and 58% of my stock universe are above their 10 week averages.  These stats are almost back to where they were before the big decline on February 27. It is time for me to be long and to hold no shorts.  The QQQQ is in its first day of a new up-trend. Stocks I have been nibbling at include HURC and NUAN. I also own X and WCG and am looking to go back into the ultra QQQQ ETF, QLD.

Blogdisclaimer

GMI: 4; GMI-S: 50; Going long

The GMI rose to 4 for the first time since February 26.  The GMI-S has also recovered to 50; one half of the four short term indicators for each of four index ETF’s (noted in table) are now positive.  Gmi0320 There were 155 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks, the most since February 26, just before the large 416 point drop in the Dow.  On Tuesday there were 73-87% gainers among the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks.  34% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages, up from 13% on March 5 and March 13.  49% of the stocks in my universe have now closed above their 10 week averages. The QQQQ is in the 16th day of its current short term down-trend.  I have closed out all of my shorts and begun to go long.  Sixteen stocks in the latest IBD 100 stock list hit a new high on Tuesday:  SIMO,WFR,SSYS,DECK,CCK,PCAR,BWLD,PCP,ROCM,FDS,MIDD,

WCG,DWSN,GLP,BDC,BTJ.  I own some of these.

See my disclaimers at the bottom of yesterday’s post.

GMI: 2+; Signs of an up-turn?

The GMI rose to 2+ and it looks like the market is on the verge of a turn.  53% (9/17) of the stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago closed higher yesterday than they did 10 days earlier, suggesting that stocks hitting new highs are holding their own.  Since this stat is based on only 17 stocks, I hesitated to call this indicator positive.  Gmi0319_2 There were 113 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks, the most since February 26.  The GMI-S has moved up to 25.  My IBD mutual fund index also is very close to turning positive.  We maybe getting the end of first quarter/new earnings release bounce I wrote about yesterday.  While the QQQQ remains in a down-trend, I am buying selective growth stocks, rather than shorting the index.  I am also writing covered calls for income in my IRA.

Blogdisclaimer

GMI: 1; IBD100 performance; Bounce coming?

The GMI remains at one.  On Friday, 28-37% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced.  Gmi0316 There were only 71 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. The QQQQ is in its 14th day of a down-trend and has closed below its 10 week average for three weeks.  Only 23 % of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages, up from a low of 13% on March 13. 

The IBD 100 stock lists are doing somewhat better than the Nasdaq 100 stocks.  More of them (7) hit new highs on Friday and a larger percentage closed above their 30 day averages.  Ibdperf0316

While the markets are in down trends, I am somewhat reticent to short stocks.  I have to suspect that with the end of the first quarter coming and earnings due in April, we should get another  bounce soon.

See my disclaimers at the bottom of my prior post.

GMI: 1; Trend still down

The GMI is still 1.  67-75% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose on Wednesday.  Wednesday was the 13th day in the QQQQ down-trend.  Gmi0314 There were 29 new highs and 142 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Will Wednesday’s bounce hold?  No one knows.  The trend is down until it changes.

Blogdisclaimer

GMI: 1; GMI-S: 0; Short or in cash

The GMI is still 1 and the GMI-S has returned to zero.  Gmi0313 Only 3-4% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose on Tuesday.  Only 13% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks and 46% of this week’s IBD 100 stock list closed above their 30 day averages.  Tuesday was the 11th day in the current QQQQ down-trend.  It remains to be seen whether these declines will surpass the lows of last week.  Right now there is so much technical damage to the indexes that I am either short or in cash. 

See my disclaimers at the bottom of yesterday’s post.



© Copyright 2014 Wishing Wealth Blog . Thanks for visiting!