GMI: 6; some rockets and submarine stocks

The GMI remains at 6.  Only 46% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Monday along with 39% of the S&P 500 and 33% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Gmi1120_1 55% of the IBD 100 stocks from 10/20 advanced and 24 of them hit new highs.  Thus, the tech growth stocks outperformed most other stocks yesterday.  There were 323 new yearly highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. Monday was the 66th day in the current QQQQ up-trend (U-66).

A TC2007 scan of the market detected 59 rocket stocks.  The 5 biggest gainers among them on Monday were: IAAC, SIM, GROW,CNS and KNOT.  The biggest losers among the 38 stocks that showed up in my submarine scan were: SIE, ADM, LMS, CMX and CVS.  MHS and WAG are two other drug store stocks that are diving submarines. The GMI is too strong, however, for me to go short these declining stocks.

GMI: 6; QLD outperforms even the IBD 100; GOOG to take off?

The GMI remains at 6.  Only 42% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Friday, along with 41% of the S&P 500 stocks and 57% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Gmi1117_3 There were 172 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Friday was the 65th day in the current QQQQ up-trend.  The GMI-L and GMI-S are  both at 100, indicating that long and short term indicators for four indexes are positive. Since this up-trend began on 8/16, the QQQQ has advanced 14.8% and the Ultra QQQQ ETF, QLD, has advanced 29.3%.  As I have been saying all along, by just riding the QLD, one would have beaten 90% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks and 95% of the S&P 500 stocks.  In fact, only 14 of the IBD 100 stocks from 8/14 advanced more than the QLD.  What a way to ride an up-trend by just jumping aboard the QLD! And the volatility (and risk) of the QLD is far less than that of individual stocks.

The IBD 100 stocks have been performing better of late.  Ibdperf1117The majority of the stocks in the recent IBD 100 lists have closed above their average closes of the last 30 days. With the exception of the list from 5/16, the majority of the stocks on the lists closed higher on Friday than when the list came out.  Note that the stocks on today’s list had 11 new highs on Friday and 88% of them closed above their 30 day averages.  New lists are apparently skewed towards stocks that have been rising in the past month.  It will be interesting to see how the stocks on today’s list do towards the end of the year.

By the way, GOOG had a hard time getting above $500 last week.  Is it possible that traders wanted to hold the November 500 calls below 500?(so they would expire worthless)  It will be interesting to see if GOOG takes off now that option expiration is over……

GMI: 6; GMI-S: 100; IBD 100 stocks lag

The GMI remains at 6, and the GMI-S is at 100 for the first time since October 31.  Gmi1116_1 There were 426 new yearly highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  61% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, along with 71% of the S&P 500 and 73% of the Dow 30 stocks.  However, only 43% of the IBD 100 stocks from 10/16 advanced, suggesting some weakness in growth stocks.  Thursday was the 64th day (U-64) in the current QQQQ up-trend and the 14th weekly close above its 10 week average……..

GMI: 6; GMI-S: 94; IBD 100 stocks vs. the Nasdaq 100; How much better can this market get?

The GMI is 6 with the GMI-S now at 94.  All four short term indicators are positive for each of the four indexes except for the DIA.  Gmi1115_1 There were 497 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Wednesday, the largest number since  April 19.  57-64% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced.  63% of stocks in my universe are now in a bullish trend, the highest percentage since I began tracking this indicator on June 9.  Wednesday was the 63rd day in this QQQQ up-trend.

The IBD 100 stocks are performing at about the level of the Nasdaq 100 stocks.  Ibdperf1115_1 65-74% of the stocks on four recent IBD 100 lists advanced on Wednesday, compared with 64% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks.  A greater percentage of the stocks on the IBD 100 lists from 10/2 (20) and 10/16 (23) hit new highs than did the Nasdaq 100 stocks (14).  For the first time, the majority of stocks in three of the lists closed higher than they did on the day the list was first published and the majority of the stocks on all four IBD 100 lists closed above their average price for the past 30 days.

During the market top in 2000, I sold out some stocks when I  had the feeling that making money was too easy.  The way my account has been growing recently, I am starting to get the same feeling.  How much better can this market get?

GMI: 6; GMI-S: 88;

The GMI is back to 6 and 74-77% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced on Tuesday.  Gmi1114_1 There were 399 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  85%of the IBD 100 stocks from 10/16 advanced and 21 of them hit a new yearly high.  Tuesday was the 62nd day of the current QQQQ up-trend and the GMI-S rose to 88 as the four short term indicators for the IJR are now positive.

GMI: 5 GMI-S: 81;

The GMI declined to 5, as only 63 of the 142 stocks in my universe that hit a new high 10 days ago closed higher than they did 10 days ago.  Stocks hitting new highs should be moving up in a strong market.  Gmi1113 When breakouts fail it can be an early sign of a weakening market.  However, there were 290 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Monday.  60-69% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced.  Monday was the 61st day in the current QQQQ up-trend.  The GMI-S, a measure of short term strength in four indexes, rose to 81 because all 4 indicators for the QQQQ are now positive.  The Nasdaq 100 stocks are leading the market up.  66% of the IBD 100 stocks from 10/16 rose and 11 stocks hit a new high (PRFT,SIM,DRIV,PHLY,HXM,INFY,AXR,VIP,ICLR,ADS,AEOS).

GMI: 6; IBD 100 stocks not outperforming: MACD bearish divergence; HANS has had it?

The GMI is still at the maximum of 6 and the trend remains up.  Gmi1110_1 67% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Friday, along with 68% of the S&P 500 and 53% of the Dow 30 stocks.  There were 115 successful 10 day new highs (stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago that closed higher on Friday than 10 days ago) and 183 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Friday was the 60th day in the current QQQQ up-trend and that index has closed above its 10 week average for 13 consecutive weeks.  The only serious cloud on the horizon, partially reflected in the GMI-S reading of 75, is that the MACD statistics of the QQQQ, DIA ans SPY  ETF’s have failed to hit new highs  with their indexes.  This bearish divergence is a troubling sign and I am ready to move quickly if the GMI should weaken.  Ibdperf1110

The IBD 100 stocks have been doing about as well as the Nasdaq 100 stocks recently.  Note, however, that only 44% of the stocks on the list published on 10/16 closed higher on Friday than they did of the day the list was published.  Only 5 of those stocks hit a new high on Friday.

As you know, I do not fight the market trend.  However, I think we should watch a real juicy short developing.  After rising for three years, I think HANS looks like it is about to roll over.  Take a look at this  weekly chart. After months where the 10 week average (dotted line) was above its 30 week average (red line), the 10 week average is now below the 30 week which is curving down.  At the bottom you can see the big red spikes representing high volume selling.  I wonder when the bad news will come out.  If I were inclined to fight the general market trend, I would be buying put options on HANS in my IRA…….. Hans_1

GMI: 6; Few stocks rise

The GMI is still 6, but only 23-31% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced on Thursday.  Gmi1109_1 This is the 13th week that the QQQQ has closed above its 10 week average, and the 59th day of the rise.

GMI: 6; QLD beats all but 12 of the Nasdaq 100 stocks

The GMI held at 6 and 60-65% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced on Wednesday.  Gmi1108_1 There were 269 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Only 53% of the IBD 100 stock list from 10/16 rose and only 3 hit new highs (LVS, CELG and ICLR). Wednesday was the 58th day of the current up-trend in the QQQQ.  The QLD ETF that tries to achieve double the returns of the QQQQ rose 1.35% Wednesday, compared with a rise of .47% for the QQQQ.  Since August 16, the QQQQ has risen 11.5% while the QLD has risen 22.7%.  Only 12 of the Nasdaq 100 stocks (and 26 of the S&P 500 stocks) rose more than the QLD. With these odds it makes little sense to me to trade individual stocks? Clearly, the QLD is the way to go as long as one is in an up-trend.

GMI: 6

The GMI remains at 6.  Tuesday was the 57th day of the QQQQ up-trend.Gmi1107_1 There were 315 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  74% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose, along with 56% of the S&P 500 and 63% of the Dow 30 stocks.  62% of the IBD 100 stocks from 10/16 rose.



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