GMI-2 falls to 3 but short and longer term trends remain up. Yesterday, one of my students identified TSCO as a cup-with-handle break out. Check out this high volume break-out.
In spite of the AAPL decline, it looks to me that the QQQ is in the beginning of an up-turn. A close of the QQQ below 56 would change my assessment. Meanwhile, GLD would appear to be topping if it closes below 156.
COST (Costco) appears to be in a strong Stage 2 up-trend, as long as it remains above $79. (Click on chart to enlarge.) The weekly GMMA shows it to be an RWB stock and emerging from a base. I own COST.
Market indexes appear to be turning up. The QQQ has retaken its 30 week average (red solid line). We may be at the beginning of a new Stage 2 advance. (Click on chart to enlarge.)
I have written several times that we might get a retracement of the current rise, because the indexes had stochastics in overbought territory. The daily QQQ 10.4 stochastic (red line) is about 95 and about to cross below the longer average (blue line). We may get that retracement now. But the longer term trend of the QQQ appears to be reversing to the up side and this may be the last chance to get into the market before the advance strengthens. I bought more mutual fund shares in my university pension on Monday.
The QQQ short term up-trend completed day 5 on Monday. Once a new short term trend reaches 5 days, it often continues for a longer period. We still have very few stocks hitting new 52 week highs, however, so betting on stocks at new highs is not a winning strategy yet. Once we get 100 or more new daily highs I can begin to buy strong growth stocks again. At that time the GMI should reach 5.No tags for this post.
With the QQQ now back above its 30 week average (solid red line), I am ready to reenter this market. The QQQ, composed of tech stocks, is outperforming the SPY and DIA.
Friday was the 4th day of the new QQQ short term up-trend. AAPL has emerged as a leader again and there is too much bearish market sentiment.
The GMI is now back to 4, reflecting the growing strength in the market indexes.
Check out this weekly chart of AAPL. It is back above its 10 week average (blue dotted line). Click on chart to enlarge.
A lot of stocks (63% of Nasdaq 100 stocks) have their stochastics in overbought territory. While I want to wade into this market, I think it best to wait a few days to see if the market retraces a little. The QQQ daily chart below shows the 10.4.4 stochastic at 87% and that this index is nearly touching the upper Bollinger band, at 91%. Both of these statistics are at levels where the index has topped out short term. Click on chart to enlarge. The SPY and DIA are showing similar extreme readings on these statistics.