Most of my readers know that using many of the indicators counted by the GMI (see box at bottom of this page) I was successfully able to stay out of the market during most of the 2000 and 2008 declines. After a bottom was in I reinvested on the long side. The GMI has a […]

I have found that since 2006, the GMI has done a good job of keeping me on the side of the general market trend. It is my cardinal rule to trade consistent with the market trend.  While the GMI has helped me to exit the market in prior major declines, I have discovered an important […]

I read a lot of pundits who repeatedly claim that this market is topping. If they keep claiming this, someone will eventually be correct! But we technicians rely on indicators to guide our trading. We must always guard against marrying a scenario and be ready to change direction to be consistent with the market’s main […]

The QQQ failed to break out of its trading channel on Friday. Interest rates rose on Friday, reflected in falling bond prices. One way to play a future rise in rates and a decline in treasury bonds is through the triple leveled 20 yr U.S. bond bearish ETF, TMV. TMV rose more than 5% on […]

I have taught my students the way I have adapted Daryl Guppy’s GMMA charting method, or Guppy Multiple Moving Average. I plot 12 weekly exponential moving average (6 shorter term averages plotted in red 3,5,8,10,12,15; and 6 longer term averages plotted in blue 30,35,40,45,50,60).  A strong upward moving pattern has the red lines all moving […]

Every once in a while my technical indicators point one way and my gut to another.  While I have never systematically analysed how often which way was correct, I suspect it was my instruments.  The market tends to move in a direction opposite to the way my emotions point. This may be one of those […]

It is impossible to consistently predict what the market will do, except by luck.  It is still possible, however, to use technical signposts to give one an edge for acting. This daily chart of QQQ shows some interesting things I monitor. First of all, the QQQ is below its 30 day average (red line) that […]

My indicators weakened on Friday and so the GMI Sell signal remains in place.  My more sensitive measure of the short term trend of the QQQ also remains down, now having reached 6 days.  I am holding mainly biotech stocks which have been miraculously bucking any market weakness, some SQQQ as a hedge,  and a […]

It is noteworthy that the IBD market pulse claims the market up-trend to be under pressure. My GMI is now 3, indicating a market trend that is midway between up-trend and down-trend.  Nevertheless, with my QQQ short term trend count now turning down, I am taking money off of the table. My university pension assets […]

One of my students made a small fortune  the next year after taking my honors course by shorting (buying put options) USO during oil’s collapse in 2008.  I took a look at the chart of USO, an oil commodity ETF, and was surprised to see that USO has now closed below the level of its  […]