Is the bear market over? Check out my “Guppy” charts

GMI3/6
GMI-R6/10
T210870%

Everyone wants to know if the bottom of this bear market is finally in place. The truth is that only liars and lucky people can really call a bear market bottom close to its occurrence.     I noticed years ago that the pundits on TV usually felt comfortable calling a new bull market about six months after the actual bottom.

The true trend follower rides the current trend until his/her indicators suggest a new trend has begun.   But all trends are not   equal.   Within a longer term down-trend there are short term up-trends.   Currently, we have had a daily up-trend within a weekly and monthly   down-trend. Day traders who monitor trends by the minute or hourly, for example, can trade numerous up and down trends within the longer term trend.

Thus, each person needs to determine his trading time interval when trying to trade trends.   And one can trade different pots of money using different time trends.   So I will not commit my university pension money to the long side of the market when the weekly trend is down.   I stay in cash during such periods. But I may trade with my IRA funds during a daily up-trend that is occurring withing a weekly down-trend.   However, I have had more success trading consistent with the weekly trend and tend to stay mainly in cash even in my IRA during a weekly down-trend.   It is hard to resist buying some recovering stocks during a rally like we have just had, even though my longer term trends are still down.

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6th day of QQQQ short term up-trend; Worden T2108: 63%

GMI3/6
GMI-R6/10
T210863%

The QQQQ rally finished its 6th day on Wednesday. There were 10 new highs and 12 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Wednesday.   IBD 100 stocks (from my lists the past year)   at new highs are:   SNDA, CPSI, TNDM, ROH, SGP, MYGN and QSII.   TNDM and QSII hit all time highs.   The T2108 indicator is now at 63%, the highest level since January 13th.   The market is not overbought until the T2108 rises to around 75%. So this market could climb a lot higher.   The QQQQ remains in a counter trend rally, until it fails or the longer term trend turns positive.   I will wait for the GMI to rise to 5 or above before I commit my university pension funds to the market.   I have successfully avoided   this bear.   In the meantime, I trade on the long side in my IRA.   I am slowly accumulating QLD as this up turn strengthens.

5th day of QQQQ short term up-trend; IBD100 new highs

GMI2/6
GMI-R6/10
T210858%

The GMI is at 2 (of 6)   and the GMI-R is at 6 (of 10).   The QQQQ completed the 5th day of its short term up-trend.   This is a counter-trend rally, with the long term trend remaining down.   Still, this is a trade-able rally as long as it lasts.   There were more new highs than lows (11 vs 8)   in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Tuesday.   Amazingly, 7 of the 11 new highs are stocks that were on my IBD100 lists from the past year:   NFLX, GMCR, CPSI, TNDM, ROH, SGP and QSII. I own some of these, along with QLD.   There is no way to know how long this rally will last, but it is nice   to own a few rising stocks again.