Market up-trend in doubt; mainly in cash

GMI4/6
GMI-R5/10
T210879%

The QQQQ is resting right on support. A decline on Monday would signal to me the beginning of   a new short term down-trend. There were only 7 new highs and 8 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday.   GOLD broke to an all-time high last week and GLD, the gold ETF,   closed back above its 10 week average. This is an ominous sign, with the dollar in a down-trend.   Buying stocks at new highs may not be a good idea now. Friday was the 42nd day of the current QQQQ short term up-trend. The Worden T2108 is now down to 79%.   And most troubling, only 24% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have a MACD above their signal line.

A lot of my cash secured puts expired on Friday.   I am going to wait to take on new positions in June options around June 1.   Better to be defensive now and not give back all of the profits made since the March bounce. I am mainly in cash again.

gmi0515

QQQQ Up-trend completes 37th day; IBD New America stocks at new highs; ASIA; most of my sold put options expire worthless on Friday

GMI4/6
GMI-R8/10
T210892%

The QQQQ completed the 37th day of its up-trend on Friday.   However, there were only 16 new highs and 5 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday.   Five of the 16 were on my IBD100 lists:   VNUS, GMCR, HANS, LINC and INT.   All of these 5 but   VNUS were also on the IBD New America page at some time this year.   I keep a watchlist of New America stocks to look for possible winners.   New America stocks are companies that IBD staff think have innovative products and exciting businesses.

Both Nicolas Darvas and IBD’s William O’Neil have written that winning growth stocks tend to have great stories behind them.   Most of the New America stocks eventually make it onto the IBD100 stocks lists.   So it is worth watching these stocks.   INT was on the New America list last February around $31 and closed on Friday at $41.90.   And HANS was written about last January around $34 and closed Friday at $42.55.   So, stocks on the New America list often take off sometime after their story is published in IBD.   One recent addition to the New America list that looks promising technically to me if it can break $18.60, is ASIA.  

Read moreQQQQ Up-trend completes 37th day; IBD New America stocks at new highs; ASIA; most of my sold put options expire worthless on Friday

Market rally continues; GMCR soars; Rocket Stocks; Dollar cost averaging into my pension

GMI4/6
GMI-R7/10
T210890%

The QQQQ up-trend completed its 32nd day on Friday.   When will the up-trend end?   No one knows.   My strategy is to hold growth stocks as long as the up-trend is in place.   Prior up-trends the past 3 years   have lasted as long as 86 days.   So the current up-trend may have a time to go, especially with the fear and skepticism accompanying this one.   On Friday there were only 11 stocks at new highs and 11 at new lows.   After the recent market decline there just are not many stocks near their 52 week highs. On two days last week there were   26 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.   The last time there were more than 100 new highs in a day was September 18.

A stock at a 52 week high is rare, but even more rare is one at an all-time high.   I have been highlighting such rocket stocks the past few weeks.   One stock I wrote about in mid-April is GMCR.   Last week the stock soared 35%, bringing my account well into the black for the year.   There are a lot of other stocks at or near all time highs, including QSII, TNDM, ALGT, ARST, NFLX, AAN, AZO, HGG, ORLY, NTES, SNDA, LFT.   All but 2 (HGG and ORLY) are on my IBD100 list from April 27.   I own some of these rocket stocks and think that some of the next great market leaders will be from this list.   Any stock that can come through the past market decline and now be near its all time high is a winner.

Read moreMarket rally continues; GMCR soars; Rocket Stocks; Dollar cost averaging into my pension

Rally remains in place; Technicals are strong; T2108: 90%

GMI5/6
GMI-R9/10
T210890%

Friday was the 27th day of the current QQQQ short term up-trend.   There were 10 new highs and 6 new lows in my universe of 4.000 stocks on Friday.   Three of the ten new highs were on the IBD100 lists from today’s edition:   STAR, HANS and JJNF.   Since the first day of the QQQQ uptrend (by my definition) on 3/18, the QQQQ has climbed 13%, the Ultra long QQQQ ETF by 28%, and the SPY by 8%.   During this same period, 84% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index (measured by the ETF, QQQQ) have advanced, with one third advancing 20% or more.   The key to successful trading on the long side is to have the relevant index in an up-trend.

Read moreRally remains in place; Technicals are strong; T2108: 90%

Buying Rocket Stocks; My market indicators are very strong.

I just completed the best 2 week period in a year. I own a lot of the stocks listed to the right, which are having terrific runs.   The GMI registered 5 for the first time since August, 2008, before the start of the major market decline.   My Successful 10 day New High Index turned positive.   There were finally enough stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago that have closed higher than they did 10 days ago.

Stocks on the 52 week new high lists that are also at or near all time   highs is where I find potential rockets.   Nicolas Darvas made a fortune trading such   stocks. IBD100 stocks near all time highs include: GMCR, NFLX, MNRO, QSII, VLGEA, AZO, SNDA, NTES, ALGT. TNDM.   TSYS, HGG and ORLY are also very strong, but are not yet on my IBD100 lists.

While most of the world looks for bargain stocks at new lows, I seek rockets heading to the moon.   The greatest winning stocks are those heading up to ever higher levels.   Think of how many times that YHOO   or CSCO or MSFT hit all time new highs as they multiplied their prices many times during their great bull runs.   If you want to hop a rocket to the moon, it better be pointing up and gaining altitude.

Read moreBuying Rocket Stocks; My market indicators are very strong.