GMI: 5; GMI-R: 9; My General Market Index (GMI) catches trend changes again!; More Judy’s picks–ITRI and IMAX

The GMI is at 5 (of 6) and the GMI-R is 9 (of 10).  The only indicator that is not positive is the Weekly QQQQ Index which indicates that the major longer term trend is still down. Gmi0418
But the short term trends are all positive. The GMI-S is at 100%, indicating that all 16 short term indicators for four key index ETF’s are positive.  The GMI-L is still at 50% indicating that only half of the longer term indicators are positive. I wrote when I started this blog 2 years ago that my indicators have kept me on the right side of the general market’s trend since  1998.  I have been largely out of the market in all major declines and back in for each ensuing recovery.  For example, I closed out my margin account in October 2000 and cut back in my IRA trading account;   my IRA was up more than 50% during the 2003 recovery.  I also switched my university pension mutual funds to cash during 2000-2002.  I have recently been in cash in my university pension funds since December and will remain in cash until the GMI rises to 6.  To show you how possible it is to time the market, in 2000, I got out of my university pension growth fund around $103 and by 2002 it was trading in the 30’s. All this time the buy and hold crowd was urging the masses to stay invested, lest the market take off without them.  This advice is garbage and many people were hurt.  Once the market turns it rises for months and there is always plenty of time to get on board.  No one can know for sure whether the current rally is one of those major turns.  The key for me is to watch the market movement as reflected in the GMI, and to ignore the news and the media pundits.  When the the train is moving in the right direction, one should hop on and not argue with others regarding whether it should be moving or how far it will go.  If the train reverses I can always hop off and wait for it to come my way again.  The key is to use tax deferred accounts where there are no tax consequences from getting in and out of positions….

After watching Judy’s marvelous pick, CPST, take off, up 50% since I mentioned it, (and 200% since Judy bought it) one of you asked me whether Judy has more picks.  Of course she does!  Two stocks she told me about that I own and am watching closely are ITRI and IMAX.   Both are "concept" stocks, the only type she buys.  Her picks do not always work out and I tend to wait for the right technical signal to buy them, usually  at higher prices than she does.  IMAX has been acting weak but is holding up, and  ITRI looks good to me if it can break $101 and hold it….

4 thoughts on “GMI: 5; GMI-R: 9; My General Market Index (GMI) catches trend changes again!; More Judy’s picks–ITRI and IMAX”

  1. You speak the word of truth Dr. Wish:” ignore the news and the media pundits. When the train is moving in the right direction, one should hop on and not argue with others regarding whether it should be moving or how far it will go. If the train reverses I can always hop off and wait for it to come my way again.”

    Congratulations once more!!!

    Vassilis

  2. Wish’s most ideal is correct, but as for entry point, stock selection and exist strategy, I think it is not perfect. Also, he didn’t mention too much about the capital mangement and exist point, which is more important, I just feel most of his ideals are traditional theory, it is good, but we can keep improving. I learned a lot from him too.

  3. I have been following Dr. Wishes blog for about 7 months or more. I am also a subscriber to Telechart where you are known as Sir Silent Knight. I have really enjoyed your blog and your posts on TC. I am trying to put together my own trading system and your posts have helped me in this regard. I am getting close but still working on my entry points. This post added to my confusion. As your GMI indicators have turned up, you have had several posts stating that you are accumulating shares of QLD. But in this post you state that you have recently been in cash in your university pension funds since December and will remain in cash until the GMI rises to 6. I have been entering the market since my signals turned positive. I use moving averages as my guide for trend changes. My signals are fairly close to yours. I am also using a stop as a safeguard and only risking 1% of my total portfolio on my initial purchase. I am still working on a system to pyramid or add to my positions if they are successful. Anyway as a thought it may be helpful to have some discussions on how to enter positions and your thoughts on pyramiding or adding to positions. After reading your post I am worried now that maybe I entered the market too early as you state you are waiting for your GMI to turn to 6 before getting back in. I don’t expect you to give away all you secrets but some ideas or thoughts would be benificial.

    Yours Truly Greg

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