GMI: 6; GMI-L: 100; Markets in Stage 2 up-trend
The GMI remains at 6 and the GMI-L is back to 100. Thus, most of my short and long term indicators are positive. 
My long term trend indicator is based on Stan Weinstein’s stage analysis (see book to right). Stan used the 30 week moving average as the best indicator of a stock’s or the market’s trend. The recent steep decline in the major indexes caused my short term daily indicators to flash negative. However, Weinstein’s indicators stayed positive throughout the decline. In fact, the major indexes all found support at their rising 30 week averages. Thus, as this chart of the Nasdaq 100 index shows, the markets remain in a Weinstein Stage 2 up-trend. I never own stocks when they or the market are below their 30 week averages. 
The recent support found at the 30 week average in all of the major stock indexes suggests to me that that the up-trend remains intact. In my trading account I get in or out of stocks based on my daily indicators. In my long term mutual funds, however, I only get out of the market when the 30 week averages flash trouble. This rule got me out of the market in 2000 and back in in 2003.
See my disclaimers at the bottom of my prior post.
GMI: 6; GMI-S: 75; Going long
For the first time since February 26, the GMI is back to the maximum reading of 6. The GMI-S is at 75; all four index ETF’s are in synch. 94-97% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose on Wednesday. The end of first quarter 
and anticipatory earnings release season rally I have been anticipating is here. There were 245 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. 57% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have now closed above their 30 day averages and 58% of my stock universe are above their 10 week averages. These stats are almost back to where they were before the big decline on February 27. It is time for me to be long and to hold no shorts. The QQQQ is in its first day of a new up-trend. Stocks I have been nibbling at include HURC and NUAN. I also own X and WCG and am looking to go back into the ultra QQQQ ETF, QLD.
GMI: 4; GMI-S: 50; Going long
The GMI rose to 4 for the first time since February 26. The GMI-S has also recovered to 50; one half of the four short term indicators for each of four index ETF’s (noted in table) are now positive. 
There were 155 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks, the most since February 26, just before the large 416 point drop in the Dow. On Tuesday there were 73-87% gainers among the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks. 34% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages, up from 13% on March 5 and March 13. 49% of the stocks in my universe have now closed above their 10 week averages. The QQQQ is in the 16th day of its current short term down-trend. I have closed out all of my shorts and begun to go long. Sixteen stocks in the latest IBD 100 stock list hit a new high on Tuesday: SIMO,WFR,SSYS,DECK,CCK,PCAR,BWLD,PCP,ROCM,FDS,MIDD,
WCG,DWSN,GLP,BDC,BTJ. I own some of these.
See my disclaimers at the bottom of yesterday’s post.
GMI: 2+; Signs of an up-turn?
The GMI rose to 2+ and it looks like the market is on the verge of a turn. 53% (9/17) of the stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago closed higher yesterday than they did 10 days earlier, suggesting that stocks hitting new highs are holding their own. Since this stat is based on only 17 stocks, I hesitated to call this indicator positive. 
There were 113 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks, the most since February 26. The GMI-S has moved up to 25. My IBD mutual fund index also is very close to turning positive. We maybe getting the end of first quarter/new earnings release bounce I wrote about yesterday. While the QQQQ remains in a down-trend, I am buying selective growth stocks, rather than shorting the index. I am also writing covered calls for income in my IRA.
GMI: 1; IBD100 performance; Bounce coming?
The GMI remains at one. On Friday, 28-37% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced. 
There were only 71 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. The QQQQ is in its 14th day of a down-trend and has closed below its 10 week average for three weeks. Only 23 % of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages, up from a low of 13% on March 13.
The IBD 100 stock lists are doing somewhat better than the Nasdaq 100 stocks. More of them (7) hit new highs on Friday and a larger percentage closed above their 30 day averages. 
While the markets are in down trends, I am somewhat reticent to short stocks. I have to suspect that with the end of the first quarter coming and earnings due in April, we should get another bounce soon.
See my disclaimers at the bottom of my prior post.
GMI: 1; Trend still down
The GMI is still 1. 67-75% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose on Wednesday. Wednesday was the 13th day in the QQQQ down-trend. 
There were 29 new highs and 142 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks. Will Wednesday’s bounce hold? No one knows. The trend is down until it changes.
GMI: 1; GMI-S: 0; Short or in cash
The GMI is still 1 and the GMI-S has returned to zero. 
Only 3-4% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose on Tuesday. Only 13% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks and 46% of this week’s IBD 100 stock list closed above their 30 day averages. Tuesday was the 11th day in the current QQQQ down-trend. It remains to be seen whether these declines will surpass the lows of last week. Right now there is so much technical damage to the indexes that I am either short or in cash.
See my disclaimers at the bottom of yesterday’s post.
GMI: 1; GMI-S: 25; X and TSO; IBD 100 new highs
The GMI is still 1 and the GMI-S rose to 25. Still, the trend is down in the major indexes. 
Monday was the 10th day in the QQQQ down-trend. In spite of the general market down-trend, two stocks that are bucking this trend are X and TSO, both of which I own. It remains to be seen how far this bounce will go and I am mainly in cash. I also own puts on some weak stocks. The only way to go short in an IRA is through buying put options.
Any stock that could come through the recent market declines and then hit a new 52 week high is showing notable strength. The following 14 recent IBD 100 list stocks hit a new high on Monday: JSDA,BTJ,HURN,GLP,DECK,MIDD,TSO,ETP,AVT,BWP,WCG,FDS,SIMO, CCK. If I were looking for stocks to buy, I would start researching this list.
GMI:1; Minimal changes
The GMI remains at one. 75-87% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced on Thursday. 
Thursday was the 8th day in the current QQQQ down-trend.
GMI: 1; GMI-S: 0
The GMI remains at one. Only 35-40% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 stock indexes rose on Wednesday. There were only 49 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks and 31 new lows. Only 11% of these stocks are in a short term uptrend and only 34% closed above their 10 week averages. 
The QQQQ and SPY are in their second week below their 10 week averages. The QQQQ down trend is in its 7th day. I am mainly in cash and looking for shorts.
See my disclaimers at the bottom of my prior post.
