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	<title>Wishing Wealth Blog &#187; Tutorial</title>
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	<description>A stock trading blog by Dr. Wish</description>
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		<title>How I find the next AAPL growth stock; New GMI buy signal; IBD50 out-performs again</title>
		<link>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2012/04/how-to-find-the-next-aapl-growth-stock-new-gmi-buy-signal-ibd50-out-performs-again/</link>
		<comments>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2012/04/how-to-find-the-next-aapl-growth-stock-new-gmi-buy-signal-ibd50-out-performs-again/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Apr 2012 11:00:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr. Wish</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[All Posts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Market Index (GMI) table]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[My Favorite Posts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tutorial]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[When I presented at the DC Worden Seminar two weeks ago, I asked the audience how many would buy a stock at a new high.  Only about 5% of the 200 people in attendance raised their hands. I was incredulous. All of them admitted they wanted to buy a stock that went to the moon, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When I presented at the DC Worden Seminar two weeks ago, I asked the audience how many would buy a stock at a new high.  Only about 5% of the 200 people in attendance raised their hands. I was incredulous. All of them admitted they wanted to buy a stock that went to the moon, but failed to understand that a stock that climbs to the sky has to hit new daily highs many times along the journey.  People want to buy bargains, when stocks typically sell at a bargain price for a reason.  If one wants to buy a terrific winner, one should not look for bargains.  The greatest stock traders bought stocks at highs and sold them at higher levels.</p>
<p>Everyone would like to have profited from AAPL&#8217;s meteoric rise.  How might someone have identified AAPL&#8217;s potential for growth <em>before</em> it took off?  I went back and looked at AAPL&#8217;s performance from late 2011 on, just before the start of the December market rally.  On October 17, AAPL hit an all-time high of $426.70.  That high was broken on January 9, at $427.75.  On January 18, AAPL hit a new high of $429.47 and by the end of January it had hit a new high on 4 days.  The final new high that month was on January 31, at $458.24.  This collection of 4 all-time highs in January was a clue of things to come.  In February, AAPL hit a new all-time high on 13 days, or 65% of the trading days in that month!  By the end of February, AAPL had hit $547.61, a gain of about $90 per share from the end of January.  AAPL proceeded to hit a new high on 50% of the trading days in March, with the March top of $621.45. To date, AAPL has hit 4 more daily highs in April, topping out at $644.</p>
<p>There are some very important lessons from the above.  First, if you refuse to buy or hold a stock at an all-time high, you will never ride a wonderful stock like AAPL.  Second, if you want to find the next AAPL, begin by looking at the list of stocks that hit a 52 week high the prior day. <a href="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/PSMTmonthly.jpg" rel="lightbox[3535]"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-3536" title="PSMTmonthly" src="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/PSMTmonthly-300x246.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="246" /></a> Then weed out the stocks that are not near their all-time high. Then research the remaining stocks&#8217; fundamental and technical characteristics.</p>
<p>If my GMI has a buy signal, I concentrate solely on stocks at or near their all-time highs that have risen strongly for months and are now breaking out of multi-month consolidations.  The best way to see such stocks is to look at their monthly charts.  Here is an example of the type of stock that interests me. I bought some PSMT last week when it touched $80.  This monthly chart shows the stock breaking out of a 6-7 month consolidation, coming after a 7 month rise when it doubled in price.  I make a small pilot buy of such a stock and place a stop loss below the break-out level.  If the stock continues to rise, I will add to my position and raise my stop.  I love to pay more for a stock that I have already bought.  I never average down. I found PSMT simply by using TC2000 to scan for all stocks that hit a new high and then charting their monthly price patterns. The fact that the stock was flagged as having appeared on an IBD 50 or New America list increased my confidence in the stock. Other stocks that hit a new high last week and that had promising monthly charts were: CF, DSW, WPI, ECL, LKQX, CB, KMB, ULTI, FDO, SBNY, GEOI.  These are worth researching.  I always check out whether earnings are imminent&#8211;I stay away from stocks that will report earnings soon&#8230;..</p>
<p>I am willing to go long again because the GMI just issued a buy signal. I am slowly going long and have bought some QLD.  I also sold some weekly cash secured puts on SPY.  I am basically betting that the SPY will close next Friday above the strike price (140) on the put options that I sold.  If I am wrong, I will have to buy back the puts at a higher price, or buy the underlying SPY shares at the strike price.  I feel comfortable with these short term bets on the SPY as long as the GMI is bullish. Furthermore, the SPY is about the only thing I would be willing to have put to me.  I do not do this with individual stocks that can be much more volatile. If I can pocket a premium of 1/2 to 1% each week, it gives me a nice monthly return on my money&#8230;.</p>
<p>The GMI is now at 5 and the GMI2 is at 6.  The GMI was &gt;3 for two consecutive days, which is my criterion for a buy signal. <a href="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/GMI04272012.jpg" rel="lightbox[3535]"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-3537" title="GMI04272012" src="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/GMI04272012-300x294.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="294" /></a>So I am closing all shorts and going long in my trading account.  The  Daily QQQ Index component of the GMI will turn positive with an up or flat day on Monday.  I use a very stringent criterion for a change in the short term trend of the QQQ.  Thus, Friday was the 10th day of the QQQ short term down-trend, within a longer term up-trend.  I will be much more confident of the new up-trend once it lasts 5 days. The QQQ and SPY have now closed above their 10 week averages, an important sign of strength.  52% of the NASDAQ 100 stocks closed with their MACD above its signal line, another sign of a strengthening market. The Worden T2108 Indicator is in neutral territory, at 60%. IBD continues to see the market in a confirmed up-trend&#8230;..</p>
<p>Over the years I have investigated how well the IBD100, now IBD50, stocks perform versus other groups of stocks.  The stocks that meet the IBD growth criteria usually outperform other stocks in a rising market, but under-perform in a falling market.<a href="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Screen-shot-2012-04-29-at-7.39.14-PM.jpg" rel="lightbox[3535]"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-3538" title="Screen shot 2012-04-29 at 7.39.14 PM" src="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Screen-shot-2012-04-29-at-7.39.14-PM-300x125.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="125" /></a> I replicated my past analyses by looking at the performance of the IBD 50 stocks published on 12/22/2011 at the beginning of this year&#8217;s rise, through last Friday.  The IBD50 stocks did much better than the NASDAQ 100 stocks or the S&amp;P500 stocks.  The median change in the IBD50 stocks was +20%, compared with +15% for the NASDAQ 100 stocks and +10% for the S&amp;P 500 stocks.  Moreover, the IBD 50 stocks really shined when looking at the likelihood of a larger ,+30% gain.  34% of the IBD 50 stocks gained 30% or more, compared with only 16% of the NASDAQ 100 stocks and 9% of the S&amp;P500 stocks.  Clearly, the IBD selection criteria resulted in a lot more winners than one would find among the stocks in these other two indexes. That is why I focus largely on watch lists and scans containing stocks that have appeared on IBD 50 stock lists published every Monday.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>gmi: 5</li>
<li>gmi-2: 6</li>
<li>t2108: 60</li>
</ul>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
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		<title>Leaders rebound strongly; TQQQ-3X ETF for the QQQQ, CTXS: cup-with-handle?</title>
		<link>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2010/11/leaders-rebound-strongly-ctxs-cup-with-handle/</link>
		<comments>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2010/11/leaders-rebound-strongly-ctxs-cup-with-handle/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Nov 2010 12:00:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr. Wish</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[All Posts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tutorial]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wishingwealthblog.com/?p=2557</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The GMI is 5 (of 6) and the more sensitive GMI-R is back to 9 (of 10). The relatively weak major stock averages do not tell Monday&#8217;s story.  Leading stocks like AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, and PCLN had terrific days.  The new QQQQ up-trend is now in its 2nd day. I am more certain of a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The GMI is 5 (of 6) and the more sensitive GMI-R is back to 9 (of 10). The relatively weak major stock averages do not tell Monday&#8217;s story.  Leading stocks like AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, and PCLN had terrific days.  The new QQQQ up-trend is now in its 2nd day. I am more certain of a new short term trend if it can reach 5 days.  For now, however, with the longer term up-trend intact, this is a good time for me to buy  leading stocks that recently became oversold and are now rebounding&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;</p>
<p>My IRA account is now near its all-time high, having increased 15x since 1995.  My margin account has doubled since earlier this year. The GMI has kept me on the right side of the market. Half of the key to investing success is to just follow the trend of the overall market. My university pension remains 100% long in mutual funds. I rarely move out of these funds into money market funds.  But by following the GMI, I remained safely in cash during the 2000-2002 and 2008 market declines&#8230;&#8230;..</p>
<p>For quite a while, I have shown how the 3X technology ETF, TYH,  outperforms the QQQQ, and virtually all  stocks, during an up-trend.  I did not know that a 3X ETF exists for the QQQQ.  Apparently, UltaPro created one last February.  TQQQ is designed to track the QQQQ by 300%. Since the QQQQ rallied on September 7 (+15.8%), the TQQQ increased +54.4%, while TYH advanced only +49.2%. The comparable inverse ETF for QQQQ is SQQQ, which goes up as the QQQQ declines.  Other 3X ETF&#8217;s from UltraPro are: URTY, UMDD, UPRO, UDOW, SPXU, SDOW, SMDD, and SRTY&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;..</p>
<p>I bought a little CTXS on Monday.  Judy told me about this stock long ago and I have been watching it for an entry.  This chart looks like a cup-with-handle pattern (click on chart to enlarge), but I am concerned that there was no increase in volume as it broke above its handle.  If it starts to slip, I will sell out.</p>
<p><a href="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/CTXScup1.jpg" rel="lightbox[2557]"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-2559" title="CTXScup" src="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/CTXScup1-300x203.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="203" /></a></p>
<p>CTXS is also a RWB rocket stock, as shown by the weekly <a href="http://www.guppytraders.com/gup329.shtml">GMMA</a> chart below. All of the short term averages (red) are well above the rising longer term averages (blue).</p>
<p><a href="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/RWBCTXS.jpg" rel="lightbox[2557]"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-2560" title="RWBCTXS" src="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/RWBCTXS-300x205.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="205" /></a></p>
<ul>
<li>gmi: 5</li>
<li>gmi-r: 9</li>
<li>t2108: 54</li>
</ul>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>5</slash:comments>
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		<title>How I buy AAPL for 12% down without using margin!</title>
		<link>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2010/04/how-i-buy-aapl-for-12-down-without-using-margin/</link>
		<comments>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2010/04/how-i-buy-aapl-for-12-down-without-using-margin/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Apr 2010 11:00:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr. Wish</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[All Posts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Market Index (GMI) table]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Put Options]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I thought you might like to know a way to buy a stock for little money down using deep in-the-money call options.  I became aware of this option (pun intended!) by reading Lee Lowell&#8217;s wonderful book on ways to get rich from options. A call option provides someone the right (but not the obligation) to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I thought you might like to know a way to buy a stock for little money down using deep in-the-money call options.  I became aware of this option (pun intended!) by reading <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Get-Rich-Options-Strategies-Straight/dp/0470445890/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books">Lee Lowell&#8217;s wonderful book</a> on ways to get rich from options. A call option provides someone the right (but not the obligation) to buy 100 shares of a stock at a particular price (strike price) for a period of time (until option expiration).  Most people gamble with call options and try to buy a cheap call that is far out-of-the-money.  For example, if one goes to yahoo finance and enters AAPL and then selects options, one can get a whole <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=AAPL">table of possible call and put options for AAPL</a>.</p>
<p>Looking at this table of <strong>May</strong> options on Sunday evening, I see that I could buy an out-of-the-money call on AAPL with a strike price of  $270 for about $2.47 per share or $247 total for 100 shares (excluding commissions).  This call gives me the right to buy 100 shares of AAPL at $270 per share through May option expiration (3rd Friday of each month).  Since AAPL stock is trading at $247.40, this option is far out-of-the-money.  It would have no real value to anyone until AAPL is above $270 per share (strike price).  The reason people are willing to buy the option for $2.47 per share is that they hope (and are betting) that AAPL will be above $270 by option expiration.  The money they are paying for what is currently a worthless option is  called time premium. In fact, this option buyer would have no profit at expiration unless the stock is selling at $270 + $2.47 (price paid for option) = $272.47  This is gambling.  But remember, if AAPL closes at, say $280 per share by option expiration, the option that was bought for $2.47 per share would now be selling around $10 per share, a quadrupling of the initial investment!  This is because one could execute the option and buy the 100 shares at $270 per share and then turn around and sell them immediately in the market for $280 per share.  One does not need to buy the shares, however, to reap the profit.  Before the option expires, one could just sell the option in the option market for around $10 per share ($1,000 total) in this example.</p>
<p>But an unusual characteristic of options is that as the option is deeper in-the-money, the time premium becomes very small and a small rise in the stock can make the option profitable to a buyer.  For example, the May call option with a strike price of $220 is offered at $29.40 per share, or $2940 for 100 shares.  This means that I could pay $2940 to control $24,700 worth of AAPL through May expiration.  Since AAPL is trading at $247.40, the May $220 call already has real (intrinsic value) value of $27.40 per share ($247.40-220.00).  Since the option would cost me $29.40 per share, the stock only needs to rise $2.00 to $249.40 before I begin to make money as AAPL rises.  Thus, for an investment of $2940 I get to reap the benefit of the gains in a $24,700 stock.  This equals about a 12% down payment, without the need to go on margin and pay interest!</p>
<p>What is the down-side?  Since I pay $2940 for the option, if AAPL closes below the strike price of $220, the option would expire worthless (why would someone buy the right to buy a stock at $220 if at expiration the stock  is  trading below $220?)  So, one can lose the entire investment if the stock falls a lot.  But this strategy loses less money than if one had paid full price for 100 shares  and then seen it fall far below $220!  The most one can lose is what they paid for the option. The big temptation to be avoided here is using the leverage to buy options on more shares than one could have bought outright. That is the way to make a huge bet and lose a lot of money.  I use this option strategy to buy the right to purchase about the same number of shares I would  have been able to purchase.</p>
<p>If you like this strategy, I suggest you read Lowell&#8217;s chapter on this topic.  Also, read up on how to open an options account and trade options. By the way, I would not even consider buying AAPL call options until after the earnings come out this week.  Look what happened to other high fliers last week, after they reported great earnings.</p>
<p>Now, the GMI and GMI-R are still at their maximum values.  However, the action in ISRG and GOOG led me to sell out some positions on Friday. <a href="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/GMI04162010.jpg" rel="lightbox[2194]"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-2195" title="GMI04162010" src="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/GMI04162010-300x243.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="243" /></a> I think it is a warning sign when the leaders crack like that.  Remember, as trend followers, we only tend to exit the market <em>after</em> the trend has changed.  Thus far, the markets remain in an up-trend.  However, I am moving my stops up and am ready to get defensive. Friday was the 4oth day of the current QQQQ short term up-trend.  The last time the QQQQ closed below its 10 day average was February 23rd! That moving average is now at 49.17, only .36 below the current value of QQQQ.  It would not take much of a decline in QQQQ  to break below this important moving average. Note that the Worden T2108 Indicator is now below 80% and may be getting ready to decline.  Be careful out there.  Things probably can&#8217;t get much better.</p>
<ul>
<li>gmi: 6</li>
<li>gmi-r: 10</li>
<li>t2108: 79</li>
</ul>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>5</slash:comments>
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		<title>Jim Cramer on stop loss orders&#8211;terribly wrong again! KCI soars; How I trade the 3X ETF&#8217;s</title>
		<link>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2010/03/jim-cramer-on-stop-loss-orders-terribly-wrong-again-kci-soars-how-i-trade-the-3x-etfs/</link>
		<comments>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2010/03/jim-cramer-on-stop-loss-orders-terribly-wrong-again-kci-soars-how-i-trade-the-3x-etfs/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Mar 2010 11:00:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr. Wish</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[All Posts]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Nicolas Darvas]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wishingwealthblog.com/?p=2174</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am dumbfounded!   I recently taped some of Cramer&#8217;s shows and reviewed Friday&#8217;s show this weekend.  At about 10 minutes into his show, Cramer responded to a caller who asked him about the use of stop loss orders.  Cramer ranted on about how he did not want his &#8220;home gamers&#8221; to put their orders on [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am dumbfounded!   I recently taped some of Cramer&#8217;s shows and reviewed Friday&#8217;s show this weekend.  At about 10 minutes into his show, Cramer responded to a caller who asked him about the use of stop loss orders.  Cramer ranted on about how he did not want his &#8220;home gamers&#8221; to put their orders on &#8220;automatic.&#8221;   Stop losses, he said, were okay for professional traders but not for his listeners who are part-time traders not glued to the market, and who are not robots.  I had to listen to him several times to make sure I heard what he was saying, because his advice was exactly opposite to what I think people should do.  His reason for not using stop losses was that one might get whipsawed&#8211;buy a stock at 60, put in a stop loss order to sell if it falls to 59 and then have the stock fall to 58 and be sold out, only to reverse and close back above 60. <strong>But it is precisely the part-time traders who are not watching the market every minute who need to have automatic stop-loss orders.</strong> Traders who are glued to their monitors can watch their stock closely and manually sell when they want to. It is the part-time trader who get his head handed to him when his stock plummets while he is at work or in a meeting. In 2005, I lost a lot of $$$ profits when I went to a business meeting thinking I did not have to put a stop in on a very strong stock (TASR) I was holding. That mistake cost me big&#8211;the market always exacts its tuition, and we must learn from our mistakes.</p>
<p>I could not disagree more with Cramer&#8217;s advice.  Before I buy a stock, I calmly decide how much I will let it fall before I think I am wrong and how much of a loss I will tolerate.  In this way, this &#8220;home gamer&#8221; who  has a full time job, does not have to be glued to the monitor like a professional trader and can go about my business knowing that if my stock falls to my sell level I am immediately and automatically sold out.  Once I have my stop loss order in place, I have taken my emotion out of the trade. If the stock falls and I have taken a small loss, I can always go back in and buy it back if it shows renewed strength&#8211;now that&#8217;s smart trading!  Every small loss bring me to my next big gain.  It was the  use of stop losses that helped the great Nicolas Darvas (see his book below) to make a fortune in the market in just 18 months. It is how one keeps his losses small.</p>
<p>Put this advice along side a lot of other bad Cramer advice, including calling chartists morons and recommending stocks based on fundamentals alone that were later devastated by the 2008 market decline. (I think Cramer started showing charts for a while after he found that a lot of his fundamental/value choices tanked).</p>
<p>So, how do I put in a stop order?  Before I buy a stock I determine at what level I will have been wrong.  Since I am buying the stock at what I believe is the right time and assuming that it is in an up-trend, I should not tolerate much of a decline below my purchase price.  The best way to enter a trade is to assume it will go wrong, so that I can calmly prepare my risk control strategy in advance.  I select a price level based on prior support, at a moving average or a recent reaction low.  <em>As soon as my buy order is executed</em>, I  place an order to sell my newly purchased shares on stop at my predetermined loss price.  I typically place a GTC (good til canceled order) so that I do not have to put a new stop order in every day.  A day order expires at the close each day.  Now, once the stock trades at the stop price level I put in, the broker automatically sends the order in to sell my shares at the market.  I may or may not sell the stock at the stop order price.  The order goes in line behind other market orders and gets executed in turn at the best price offered.  The greatest risk from using a stop loss order is that if the stock suddenly trades far below the stop price (as in a gap down at the open the next day) one  gets only the best price that someone is willing to pay.  A good strategy is to cancel the stop order after the stock has advanced enough and to put a new sell stop order in at a higher exit price   to ensure I do not give back all of my profit. I do not use automatic trailing stop orders because I prefer to raise the stop price manually after carefully reviewing the stock&#8217;s technicals. If I am stopped out and the stock rises again I love to buy it back at a higher price than I sold it.  Such trades often are quite profitable because during the whipsaw, as the  shares decline, they are bought by others who then hold on for a larger advance. Many large advances begin after a sudden decline&#8230;&#8230;.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the GMI and GMI-R remain at their maximum levels.  As the table below shows,<span id="more-2174"></span></p>
<p>the QQQQ completed the 16th day of it short term up-trend on Friday.  <a href="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/GMI03122010.jpg" rel="lightbox[2174]"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-2175" title="GMI03122010" src="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/GMI03122010-300x232.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="232" /></a>Both the QQQQ and SPY index ETF&#8217;s closed above their 10 week averages for the second straight week, a sign of strength.  The only caution signs I see right now are the fact that 91% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed with their MACD above its signal line and the Worden T2108 indicator is now at 84%, not far from the highest levels it gets to.  So, in order not to lose my profits gained in this up-trend, I am moving my sell stops up a little.  Remember, in ancient Rome, the lions ate up all of the prophets!</p>
<p>Did you notice what happened to KCI last week? On March 1, I wrote that KCI looked like a bullish cup-with-handle pattern.  It&#8217;s up about 17% since then.</p>
<p>A reader asked me if it was dangerous trading the 3x ultra ETF&#8217;s, like TYH.  Yes it is, but only if I have too large a position and do not have a suitable stop in.  Since these ETF&#8217;s are designed to move 3x the daily move of the stocks they track, I <em>always</em> tiptoe into my position by buying in small amounts and averaging up.  So, I might start with buying a few shares and only add more after the ETF has moved up. I try to enter at the beginning of an up-trend, when no few typically expect the market to begin a sustained rise. It is at such times that I am most scared to go long. If I had the discipline to just buy the TYH  when my QQQQ short-term indicator turns positive, I would do quite well.  For example,  the current QQQQ up-trend began on 2/25 and QQQQ has risen by 6.2%, while TYH (the ultra 3x bullish tech ETF) has risen 15.5%.  Yes, TYH moves quickly, but I believe the actions I noted above bring  the risks down to an acceptable level for me.</p>
<ul>
<li>gmi: 6</li>
<li>gmi-r: 10</li>
<li>t2108: 84</li>
</ul>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>5</slash:comments>
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		<title>How to use IBD 100 and New America stocks and TC2007 to find potential rocket stocks; Market rally begins</title>
		<link>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2010/02/how-to-use-ibd-100-and-new-america-stocks-and-tc2007-to-find-potential-rocket-stocks-market-rally-begun/</link>
		<comments>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2010/02/how-to-use-ibd-100-and-new-america-stocks-and-tc2007-to-find-potential-rocket-stocks-market-rally-begun/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Feb 2010 12:00:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr. Wish</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Market Index (GMI) table]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nicolas Darvas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tutorial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darvas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IBD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IBD100]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rocket Stocks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wishingwealthblog.com/?p=2157</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am writing this post primarily to teach my students how I search for potential rocket stocks&#8211;stocks that have been launched and appear headed towards new peaks.  As I said in class this week, it makes the most sense to buy stocks that have the best fundamentals and technicals.  This strategy has been advocated both [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am writing this post primarily to teach my students how I search for potential rocket stocks&#8211;stocks that have been launched and appear headed towards new peaks.  As I said in class this week, it makes the most sense to buy stocks that have the best fundamentals and technicals.  This strategy has been advocated both by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicolas_Darvas">Nicolas Darvas</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_O%27Neil">William O&#8217;Neil</a> in their extraordinary books (listed at lower right of this blog).  Darvas,  made a fortune trading in growth stocks in the late 19050&#8242;s and said that he liked to buy stocks that were trading at all-time highs and that had already doubled in the past year.  So, I am going to show you how I use the great TC2007 stock charting and analysis program to find  potential rocket stocks that I <em>research further before buying.<span id="more-2157"></span></em></p>
<p><em><br />
</em></p>
<p>First of all, I am interested in buying stocks again, now that the GMI has risen to 6.  Remember, I want to trade consistent with the general market trend-I must not fight the tide.  I only have an edge buying stocks when the market is in an up-trend, as shown by the GMI being at least 3.  Both Darvas and O&#8217;Neil stressed the importance of  trading consistent with the market&#8217;s trend&#8211;70-80% of stocks follow the general market&#8217;s direction.  Both tend to sit out the market in cash when the market&#8217;s trend is down.  One of the hardest things to do is to stay away from the market (at least from the long side) when the trend is down.</p>
<p>So, with the trend now up, I used <a href="http://worden.com/">TC2007</a> to sort my watch list (called stock universe) of 4,000 actively traded stocks above $5, by whether the stock traded at a new 52 week high on Friday.  I found that there were  222 new highs in my stock universe on Friday.  Next, I needed to find how many of these stocks were trading at or near their their all-time highs, defined as the highest price they have traded at in the past 10 years.  To do this, I set my chart to show monthly prices and space barred through each stock.  For each stock that was trading at or within a few $$ of the highest price it had traded at during the past 10 years, I flagged the stock by pressing the &#8220;F&#8221; key .  I then created a new watch list and copied the 32 flagged symbols into it.   I next unflagged the stocks in this new watch list and selected my watch list tab that includes selected fundamental and technical information, including quarterly and yearly earnings changes, <a href="http://www.investorwords.com/3811/price_earnings_ratio.html">PE</a>, last closing price divided by close a year ago, % change in revenue last quarter, and <a href="http://www.investorglossary.com/price-to-sales-ratio.htm">P/S</a> (price to sales) ratio (see  table below).</p>
<p>As I looked at this information for the  32 stocks, I found the following. A little more than one half (56%) of these stocks had an earnings change during the most recent quarter of +35% or more, with 22% having had at least triple digit earnings increases.  In addition, 38% had losses the prior quarter or blank fields because they had no prior earnings with which to make a comparison.  The PE ratios ran from 0 (no earnings) to 128, with 53% having a PE above 20. One half of these 32 stocks  were trading at twice the price they were trading a year ago. 38% had revenue (sales) increases the last quarter of at least 12%. P/S (price to sales ratio) varied from 0 to 40 with half being less than 2.</p>
<p>I next decided to re-flag (press &#8220;F&#8221; key)  each stock that had a most recent quarterly earnings increase of at least 30% OR revenue growth of at least 12%.  I then copied the flagged symbols into a new watch list which became my final watch list of stocks at all-time highs with good recent quarterly earnings or revenue increases.  The final watch list of 22 stocks appears in the table below, with stocks sorted by their most recent quarter&#8217;s % change in earnings.  I then unflagged the symbols in this final watchlist (right click in the box to the left of a symbol and choose unflag all symbols in watch list) , and went to another watch list I maintain that contains many of the stocks that have appeared in the <a href="http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=519566">IBD 100 </a>lists  or the IBD New America column during the past year, and flagged all of the symbols in that watchlist.  A list of the New America stocks over the past few months typically is published in the New America section of IBD each Friday and the list of the IBD 100 stocks is updated each weekend and is available in their website (<a href="http://investors.com/">investors.com</a>). Thus, when I returned to my new all-time high watch list, I knew that any flagged symbol was a stock that had been an IBD 100 or New America stock, indicating that the IBD analysts thought it was a strong or promising company. Interestingly, more than two thirds (15/22, 68%&#8211;CREE was added to my IBD 100 list today,  after I produced this table.) of the stocks that met my stringent criteria had been independently selected  as an IBD 100 or New America stock! (This is why I can often <em>begin</em> my search for great stocks by going to my lists of the IBD 100 and New America stocks.)  <a href="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/Alltimehighs02192010.jpg" rel="lightbox[2157]"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-2158" title="Alltimehighs02192010" src="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/Alltimehighs02192010-284x300.jpg" alt="" width="284" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>Taking a look at the surviving 22 stocks in this table (click on table to enlarge) I can make some additional observations about these stocks.  For all of the stocks with earnings increases of at least +35.7% (column 2) but one (ISRG), their PE (column 5) is <em>less</em> than their earnings % increase for the most recent quarter.  This means that their <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PEG_ratio">PEG</a> (PE to growth ratio) was less than 1, suggesting that the stock may be in a favorable price range to  people who use this statistic as an indication of a stock&#8217;s value. For example, CREE had a recent quarterly earnings increase of +166% and a PE of 86, giving a PEG of  .52 (86/166).  The PE is high, but the earnings growth is even higher.  Even ISRG has a PEG close to 1 (56/53).  (The table is sorted by  column 2, most recent quarter&#8217;s earnings change.) Note also that P/S (column 8, the price to sales ratio, analogous to the PE, but using sales instead of earnings) for half of these stocks is less than 2, another indicator of   value, to some.  Some technicians believe that sales are a better measure of a company&#8217;s performance than earnings, which can be more erratic. Where there is no value in the table, it means that there were no earnings with which to make a comparison.  Note  that there are a few companies that have relatively high earnings <em>and</em> revenue increases  (ALXN, BIDU, CREE, ISRG, NFLX).  These stocks might be especially good candidates for additional  analysis. (Column 7 shows % change in revenue in the most recent quarter. ) Other characteristics that I would  look at next is trends in the volume of shares traded, recent news, next earnings dates, and the types of fundamental and technical information provided in the <a href="http://63.71.211.170/Education/OnlineLesson.aspx?courseId=450653&amp;docid=452545">IBD Stock Checkup</a> screen.</p>
<p>While it took some time to write (and read) these instructions, be assured that once you get the feel for TC2007 you will find that you can do this analysis in a few minutes each night&#8230;&#8230;.</p>
<p>Now, the GMI and GMI-R are back to their maximum levels.  <a href="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/GMI02192010.jpg" rel="lightbox[2157]"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-2159" title="GMI02192010" src="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/GMI02192010-300x241.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="241" /></a>My short term trend count for the QQQ is now U-1, the first day of the new short term up-trend.  How long will it last?  Nobody knows!  So I buy and always keep an eye on the exits.  The QQQQ and SPY have now closed above their 10 week averages and 88% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks now have their <a href="http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_average_conve">MACD</a> above their signal line. The <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/113136-using-the-t2108-indicator-to-identify-overbought-s-p-500-conditions">Worden T2108 i</a>ndicator is in a neutral zone, at 53%.   I own and am watching many of the stocks posted on the right of this blog, in the Stocks I&#8217;m Watching column. I wade in slowly to my positions.  One rule I like, is to enter every trade as if it might fail so that I have an exit plan ready and am not unprepared if the stock goes against me. The key to profitable trading is to have many small losses and a few large gains.</p>
<ul>
<li>gmi: 6</li>
<li>gmi-r: 10</li>
<li>t2108: 53</li>
</ul>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>More new lows than highs; T2108 and stochastic in oversold territory</title>
		<link>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2010/02/more-new-lows-than-highs-t2108-and-stochastic-in-oversold-territiory/</link>
		<comments>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2010/02/more-new-lows-than-highs-t2108-and-stochastic-in-oversold-territiory/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Feb 2010 13:50:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr. Wish</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[All Posts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Market Index (GMI) table]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tutorial]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wishingwealthblog.com/?p=2143</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For the first time since early November, there were more new lows than new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday. Furthermore, the Worden T2108 indicator is getting near the level (below 20%) where declines sometimes end.  Friday was the 11th day of the current QQQQ short term down-trend.  We are either at [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the first time since early November, there were more new lows than new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday. Furthermore, the Worden T2108 indicator is getting near the level (below 20%) where declines sometimes end.  Friday was the 11th day of the current QQQQ short term down-trend.  We are either at the beginning of a major decline, or near the end of a short term correction.  The best course for me is to wait for the market to tip its hand.  The GMI remains at <span id="more-2143"></span></p>
<p>1 (of 6) and the GMI-R is now also at 1 (of 10).  <a href="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/GMI02052010.jpg" rel="lightbox[2143]"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-2144" title="GMI02052010" src="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/GMI02052010-300x236.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="236" /></a>T2108 is now at 24%.   The only promising action on Friday was that the volume on major market index ETF&#8217;s was very high as they rebounded at the end of the day. They need to hold Friday&#8217;s lows to suggest the possibility of a sustained up-trend.</p>
<p>I have been focusing of late on the stochastic statistic as an indication of whether a stock or index  is in oversold territory.  The stochastic for x period, measures where the current price is compared with the range over period x.  A stochastic of 10 measures the close versus its high and low over the prior 10 periods.  A stochastic reading of 100 means that the current price is at the high price over that period.  A reading of zero, means that the current price is at the bottom of the 10 period range.     Typically, a reading below 20 means  an oversold condition. I look at a daily stochastic 10,4,4.  This measures a 10 day period, with one plotted line (red) representing the 4 day moving average of the stochastic, and a second plotted line (blue) representing a 4 day moving average of the first line.  Below is the 10,4,4, daily stochastic of the QQQQ. Note that the stochastic is rebounding from way below 20 and that prior bounces have occurred at this level. We are either going to have a bounce or a prolonged down-turn.</p>
<p><a href="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/StochasticQQQQ.jpg" rel="lightbox[2143]"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2145" title="StochasticQQQQ" src="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/StochasticQQQQ.jpg" alt="" width="682" height="925" /></a></p>
<ul>
<li>gmi: 1</li>
<li>gmi-r: 1</li>
<li>t2108: 24</li>
</ul>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<title>Exciting New Worden stock tool&#8211;volume buzz at FreeStockCharts.com</title>
		<link>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2009/10/exciting-new-worden-stock-tool-volume-buzz-at-freestockcharts-com/</link>
		<comments>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2009/10/exciting-new-worden-stock-tool-volume-buzz-at-freestockcharts-com/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Oct 2009 11:00:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr. Wish</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[All Posts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Market Index (GMI) table]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tutorial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ETF]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wishingwealthblog.com/?p=2067</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I recently attended a Worden seminar about their new software, StockFinder.com, which will eventually probably replace TC2007, my favorite analytic program.  While there, they talked about the  free software that they make available to everyone, Freestockcharts.com.  Freestockcharts.com is a platform that is very similar to their new StockFinder software, but it is free and  provides [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I recently attended a Worden seminar about their new software, StockFinder.com, which will eventually probably replace TC2007, my favorite analytic program.  While there, they talked about the  free software that they make available to everyone, Freestockcharts.com.  Freestockcharts.com is a platform that is very similar to their new StockFinder software, but it is free and  provides real time charts and statistics.  While many sites provide intraday prices, I learned at the seminar that Freestockcharts.com has an indicator called &#8220;volume buzz.&#8221;  Volume buzz compares  each stock&#8217;s volume to its average volume at a specific  time during the trading day.  (I do not know over how many time periods the average is computed.) So, for example, at 10:05 AM I can rank my watchlist by how each stock&#8217;s  current volume at 10:05 AM compares with its average volume at 10:05 AM.  I can therefore see anytime during the day whether a stock is trading an unusually high or low number of shares. <a href="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/volumebuzz.jpg" rel="lightbox[2067]"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-2068" title="volumebuzz" src="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/volumebuzz-300x142.jpg" alt="volumebuzz" width="300" height="142" /></a> Volume buzz therefore  enables someone  to spot unusual volume in their specific watchlist anytime during the trading day. One just edits the watchlist column to include volume buzz. The picture to the right, taken after Friday&#8217;s close, shows that the volume for TYH on Friday was 85.7% above its average total trading volume by the end of the day.  Of course, if I had taken a screen shot during the day, the volume buzz statistic would have been computed based on the exact time during the trading day when I would have taken the screen shot. Pretty neat!  Freestockcharts.com also enables me to set alerts for each stock, that can be emailed to me immediately when a stock trades in a specific way.  (A larger number of alerts and stock scans require a paid for premium service.) <a href="http://www.freestockcharts.com/">Check it out</a>.  Meanwhile, the GMI</p>
<p><span id="more-2067"></span></p>
<p>is at 5 and the GMI-R is at 9.  The indexes are still near the top of their Bollinger bands and it may not be a great time to start taking on new longs.<a href="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/GMI1023.jpg" rel="lightbox[2067]"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-2069" title="GMI1023" src="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/GMI1023-300x231.jpg" alt="GMI1023" width="300" height="231" /></a> But as long as the longer term trends are up, chances are that the daily advance will resume suddenly.  When stocks surge  on good earnings, like AAPL, AMZN and NFLX did last week, we know that we are in a strong up-trend where funds and traders are buying strength.  The QQQQ and SPY index ETF&#8217;s have closed above their critical 10 week averages for 15 straight weeks.  It is unfortunate that so many people have missed this rise.  One needs to follow the trend and not try to second guess it.  As long as the trend is up, I can go long and manage risk by placing sell stops beneath key support levels.</p>
<ul>
<li>gmi: 5</li>
<li>gmi-r: 9</li>
<li>t2108: 66</li>
</ul>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<title>Using Bollinger bands to avoid buying  extended from support.</title>
		<link>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2009/10/using-bollinger-bands-to-avoid-buying-extended-from-support/</link>
		<comments>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2009/10/using-bollinger-bands-to-avoid-buying-extended-from-support/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Oct 2009 11:00:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr. Wish</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[All Posts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Market Index (GMI) table]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tutorial]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wishingwealthblog.com/?p=2062</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When I teach my class to honors students I find that the biggest mistake they make in trading is buying a stock when it is too extended from support.  They buy when it is extended and then sell as it falls back to support.  I did that a lot until I reviewed several losses and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When I teach my class to honors students I find that the biggest mistake they make in trading is buying a stock when it is too extended from support.  They buy when it is extended and then sell as it falls back to support.  I did that a lot until I reviewed several losses and discovered that pattern.  To make money, all I had to do was to reverse my actions&#8211;buy where I had been selling and sell where I had been buying.  But how can one do that effectively?  <span id="more-2062"></span></p>
<p>I have found that Bollinger bands can help me to time my purchases.  Bollinger bands simply plot an envelope that is a given distance around an average price.  I am using the simple 20 day moving average and plotting the values 2 standard deviations above and below this average. <a href="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/bbqqqqwhite.jpg" rel="lightbox[2062]"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-2066" title="bbqqqqwhite" src="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/bbqqqqwhite-300x185.jpg" alt="bbqqqqwhite" width="300" height="185" /></a> The standard deviation I use is simply the average deviation of the daily closes around the average of the  last 20 daily closes, and represents a measure of variability around the mean.  In a normal distribution, one would expect that 95% of the daily closes would fit within plus or minus 2 standard deviations of the mean.  If you don&#8217;t understand what I wrote you can still use Bollinger bands.  All it means is that the stock should mainly close <strong>within</strong> the top and bottom Bollinger bands. You will need to click on this chart to see the bands clearly.  I have numbered 4 times in which the QQQQ got close to the bottom band and then turned up.  By buying at those times I had a good chance of profiting.  When the price gets close to the upper band it is often too extended and unlikely to keep rising.  So, right now we are coming down from the upper band and it might be a good idea to wait for the QQQQ to get closer to the lower band and turn up to make new purchases&#8230;&#8230;.</p>
<p>So, the GMI is back to 6 (of 6) and the GMI-R is 10 (of 10).  <a href="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/GMI1016.jpg" rel="lightbox[2062]"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-2065" title="GMI1016" src="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/GMI1016-300x260.jpg" alt="GMI1016" width="300" height="260" /></a>The market remains in an up-trend and I am fully invested in mutual funds in my university pension. In my trading IRA, I had a lot of puts I sold expire worthless this weekend.  I plan to buy some TYH if the QQQQ bounces off of its lower Bollinger band.  I always wade into  TYH slowly, buying as each prior purchase  shows a profit.  I love to buy as my stock rises. I always use a sell stop to get me out if the stock falls.</p>
<ul>
<li>gmi: 6</li>
<li>gmi-r: 10</li>
<li>t2108: 76</li>
</ul>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
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		<title>How my General Market Indicator (GMI) and technical analysis kept me and my 401K out of the bear market</title>
		<link>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2009/06/how-my-general-market-indicator-gmi-kept-me-and-my-401k-out-of-the-bear-market/</link>
		<comments>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2009/06/how-my-general-market-indicator-gmi-kept-me-and-my-401k-out-of-the-bear-market/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Jun 2009 13:54:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr. Wish</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[All Posts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Market Index (GMI) table]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tutorial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cash-Secured Puts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IBD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technical Analysis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wishingwealthblog.com/?p=1851</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Many of you have requested that I post a chart showing the recent performance of the GMI over the past year.  The GMI, though not perfect, has successfully kept me on the right side of the market through the 2000-2002 and 2008 bear market declines.  I simply go to cash in my university pension and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Many of you have requested that I post a chart showing the recent performance of the GMI over the past year.  The GMI, though not perfect, has successfully kept me on the right side of the market through the 2000-2002 and 2008 bear market declines.  I simply go to cash in my university pension and trade the short side in my IRA once the GMI starts to remain consistently below 3.  In order to show the GMI over time, I have plotted a weekly chart with the GMI changes for the last day of each week. <span id="more-1851"></span></p>
<p>Note, however, that the TC2007 program counts 5 days back from the last day in the chart as a week, so that my bars may not correspond exactly with Fridays because of holidays, when the market is closed.  <a href="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/GMIPERFORM091.GIF" rel="lightbox[1851]"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-1854" title="GMIPERFORM09" src="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/GMIPERFORM091-300x192.GIF" alt="GMIPERFORM09" width="300" height="192" /></a>In addition, the GMI could have differed during the week from the end of week reading posted in the chart. This chart shows only changes in the GMI from week to week (click on chart to enlarge). It should be clear from this chart how effective the GMI was in keeping me out of the huge decline.  The last time in this period that the GMI was at 6 occurred in the bounce that took place last May.  After that reading, the GMI declined to zero, hit 4 in the next bounce, and then quickly returned to zero.  The GMI remained at zero from last September through December, helping me to stand clear from the market.  The GMI hit 4, in early April and has remained 4 ever since.  Last week, the GMI registered 5 on Wednesday and Thursday because there are now frequently more than 20 daily highs which are necessary to compute my Succeeful New High indicator component of the GMI.</p>
<p>It is because the GMi Is now 4 that I have begun to go long with this market.  The other key technical indicator in this chart that makes me very optimistic is that the 10 week average (dotted line) is now above the 30 week average (red line).  This is a key characteristic of tradable advances.  I have written often that my best gains have come when the QQQQ is consistently above its 10 week average. The hardest thing for my students to accept is that such things as interest rates, economic news and the Fed actions are only indirectly related to the market&#8217;s trend.</p>
<p>One must look at what the market is <em>doing</em>, as with the GMI, to determine the trend and not wait for the news to discover it.  Usually, the news and the media are simply distractions to me.  When you cross the street and a truck comes speeding towards you, you do not argue with its presence or check with others, you act.  Similarly when the market is in an up-trend, I grit my teeth and jump aboard.  The market began its decline in September and the GMI turned zero, long before the media pundits and the public  screamed bear market. If I wait for the news, I am late to the trend.</p>
<p>The GMI components are presented in this table.  <a href="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/GMI0612.GIF" rel="lightbox[1851]"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-1858" title="GMI0612" src="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/GMI0612-300x267.GIF" alt="GMI0612" width="300" height="267" /></a>The QQQQ has closed above its 10 week average for 13 weeks, and the SPY for 12 weeks.  The Worden T2108is at 80% and 60% of the Nasdaq100 stocks closed with their MACD above its signal line.</p>
<p>I am therefore comfortable riding this up-trend.  I have moved 15% of the my university pension from money market fund to a growth mutual fund.  My 401k has never been higher.  In my trading IRA I continue to sell some cash secured puts and nibble at some stocks.  I am particularly interested in SYNA and HMSY and have some small pilot buys in these stocks.  If they perform as I expect I will add to my position.  If they fail, I will get out with a small loss.  Every loss brings me to the next winner. The key is to make a pilot buy, and only average up and buy more if the stock behaves as I expected.  I do not marry a stock.  As William O&#8217;Neil of IBD has said, all stocks are bad unless they go up.</p>
<ul>
<li>gmi: 4</li>
<li>gmi-r: 8</li>
<li>t2108: 80</li>
</ul>
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		<title>New America stock ASIA breaks out and I automatically buy some</title>
		<link>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2009/05/new-america-stock-asia-breaks-out-and-i-automatically-buy-some/</link>
		<comments>http://wishingwealthblog.com/2009/05/new-america-stock-asia-breaks-out-and-i-automatically-buy-some/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2009 02:13:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr. Wish</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[All Posts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tutorial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IBD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New America]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wishingwealthblog.com/?p=1766</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On May 10, I wrote: &#8220;So, stocks on the New America list often take off sometime after their story is published in IBD.  One recent addition to the New America list that looks promising technically to me if it can break $18.60, is ASIA. &#8221; After I wrote that post, I placed a  GTC (good [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On May 10, I wrote: &#8220;So, stocks on the New America list often take off sometime <em>after </em>their story is published in IBD.  One recent addition to the New America list that looks promising technically to me if it can break $18.60, is ASIA. &#8221;</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">After I wrote that post, I placed a  GTC (good til cancelled) trigger order with my broker to buy ASIA if the stock traded above $18.60.  Sure enough, a week later, on Tuesday, ASIA broke out on huge volume.  I was at an all day meeting on Tuesday, when ASIA broke 18.60 and I bought my shares <em>automatically </em>at around $18.66.  One does not have to watch the market in order to buy break outs.  Just use trigger or buy stop orders. ASIA closed Tuesday at 19.44. I will now place a GTC trigger order to sell ASIA if the stock falls below $17.  These trigger orders take the emotion out of the trade. Note on the chart where &#8220;NA&#8221; indicates when ASIA appeared in the IBD New America column. It makes sense to monitor stocks that appear in the New America column.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><span id="more-1766"></span></p>
<p><a href="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/asia.gif" rel="lightbox[1766]"><img class="size-medium wp-image-1768 alignleft" title="asia" src="http://wishingwealthblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/asia-275x300.gif" alt="asia" width="275" height="300" /></a></p>
<ul>
<li>gmi: 4</li>
<li>gmi-r: 8</li>
<li>t2108: 86</li>
</ul>
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		<slash:comments>7</slash:comments>
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