Blog post: $QQQ short term down-trend may end Monday; 69% of Nasdaq100 stocks in hourly RWB up-trends; scan shows 12 stocks near ATH with a 50 week high in relative strength; Is $LLY about to help us lose weight?

GMI0/6
GMI-24/9
T210827%

It is possible that the QQQ short term trend will turn up by the close on Monday. Any change in the short term trend needs to last 5 days for me to really trust it. However, I might buy a little TQQQ on Monday with a close stop. The GMI remains at zero and Red, see table below, and the longer term trend remains down. But a change in the longer term trend always begins with a change in the shorter term trend. Case in point, this hourly adapted GMMA chart shows QQQ is in a new RWB up-trend, for now.  69% of the Nasdaq100 component stocks are in a similar hourly RWB up-trend, which suggests to me this rally has some legs.

 

I ran a scan of my watchlist of 780 promising IBD/MarketSmith list stocks, that looked for stocks near an ATH that had weekly relative strength vs. SPY at a 50 week high. These 12 stocks came out. Maybe some of these stocks will become market leaders. They are sorted by change from a year ago. For example, HRMY is up 76% from 250 days ago. Any stock that can come through the recent market down-trend near an ATH is worth monitoring. The fallen leaders may never come back to an ATH, as many people who bought at higher prices and rode them down are grateful to sell as soon as they can get their original investments back….

My talented stock buddy, Judy, alerted me a while ago to LLY, which was picked up by this scan. Lilly has a drug  in phase 3 trials that could prove to be an amazingly effective new treatment for obesity. Study participants  had reductions in weight of >20%! Perhaps this is why LLY reached an ATH on Friday.  Notice the successful retest of the green line break-out, GLB, from March. If this new drug gains FDA approval, LLY could rocket up. If it fails, it could become a submarine. I am watching for high volume up days to suggest that traders know that more good news will come out from the ongoing clinical trials. Stay tuned….

 

The GMI is on a Red signal and is 0 (of 6). It will be interesting to see how long the current counter trend rally continues.

Blog post: T2108=10%, almost there; Waiting patiently for a bottom while holding cash.

GMI0/6
GMI-22/9
T210810%

T2108 measures the percentage of NYSE stocks that closed above their simple 40 day moving averages. It is computed each day on TC2000. I would like to see T2108 register below 5% for a real potential bottom to be near. I am content to wait on the sidelines. I exited the market so much higher that I can wait for a bottom to be in before I  start to wade in. I do not have to get in at the bottom. No one knows a bottom is in until after it is.

Blog Post: Day 1 of new $QQQ short term down-trend and GMI= RED; How I use my Weekly 10:30 charts for indexes, stocks and mutual funds and gold

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GMI-22/9
T210826%

Last week I tweeted,  @WishingWealth, how my Weekly 10:30 charts helped me to stay on the right side of the market. As long as the 10 week average is above a rising 30 week average the market is in an up-trend. When the reverse is true it is time for me to be short or in cash. The Weekly 10:30 chart helps me to know the trend but I use finer criteria to time the exact entry or exit.

In addition, I do not want to hold or purchase any security unless it has the 10 week above the rising 30 week. See how these weekly charts show the trend of both a stock and a mutual fund. The 10 week average is the dotted line. The gray line in the background shows the weekly closing price. When the weekly close is below the 30 week average I become defensive and look for a possible exit.

QQQ is in a down-trend.

As is SPY.

And GLD closed back above its 30 week average and may be turning up.

And the GMI is 1 (of 6) and back to Red.