I noted yesterday that the markets were so oversold that I thought they might bounce.  At Monday’s close, 59% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks were oversold.  By Tuesday’s close this percentage fell to 39%. Now that the rebound has begun, the question is how far it will go.  No one knows.   During the most recent  [...]

The long and short term market trends are down.  I remain mainly in cash in my trading accounts.  Many of the stocks I follow are very oversold, suggesting that we could get a bounce.

For the first time since January, 2009, GLD has closed below its 30 week average.  This could be the beginning of a major Stage 4 down-trend. Click on weekly chart to enlarge.  

With the GMI at 0, I am totally hedged and in cash.  Another flat or down day will give me a second day with GMI less than 2, a major sell signal.  I did not wait for this confirmatory signal to lighten up, however, because with the GMI at 0, I am ready to get [...]

Markets looking ugly again.  IBD still sees correction.  With new QQQ short term down-trend I am getting defensive again. Not looking for longs. I ran my scan looking for possible shorts, stocks that have climbed a lot in the past year and are beginning a possible Stage 4 decline. TC2000 came up with four stocks: [...]

The QQQ short term up-trend reached the 5th day but another down day on Tuesday could turn the short term trend down.  Only 4 stocks were found by my scan that looks for stocks that hit a new 52 week high and have good fundamentals:  DG, GNRC, OKS, ASPS. ASPS  hasn’t closed below its 10 [...]

While the GMI barely held to 6, the more sensitive GMI-2 fell to 3.  Another flat or down day in the QQQ will change its short term trend to down.  The QQQ daily 10.4 stochastic is in overbought territory at 84 and has crossed below its longer term average.  Over the past few months, this [...]

Cautiously long with QLD.  I am more sure of a QQQ short term change in trend if it reaches 5 days. Six stocks came up in my new high and good fundamentals scan: MMP, OKS, ASPS, GNRC, INTC, SMP.

The GMI is back to 6 and a new QQQ short term up-trend has begun.  I was stopped out of FTNT on Tuesday but MELI is holding.  Meanwhile,as this daily chart shows,  ASPS just doesn’t quit!  

It is interesting to see that IBD still considers the market to be in a correction.  The QQQ remains in a short term down-trend according to my definition, but the GMI flashed a buy signal last Thursday. I bought some MELI on Monday after it appeared to break out from a steep cup-with-handle base.  On [...]