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26th day of QQQ short term up-trend: Darvas stock: KWR

Dr. Wish — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 11:55:33 +0000

My DARVAS scan picked up 22 stocks. These are stocks that meet criteria similar to those used by the great Nicolas Darvas , when he made 2 million dollars trading in a two year period in the 1950′s. (See his classic book listed on the lower right of this site.) One of these stocks is KWR, which is just at its all-time high. If it breaks through, I think this could be a winner. Here is a weekly chart of KWR and here is its Yahoo profile. Click on chart to enlarge.

gmi: 6
gmi-2: 6
t2108: 85

25th day of QQQ short term up-trend; 437 new highs; TCO zooms

Dr. Wish — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 12:00:09 +0000

The Worden T2108 , at 86%, is near the highest level it typically reaches on rallies. There were 437 new 52 week highs on Wednesday, the most since last July. Of the 34 stocks hitting new highs and having good fundamentals, eight had recent quarterly earnings gains of 100% or more: MON,TCO,MDCO,BCH,URI,ALXN,AAPL,WCG. Of these, TCO, BCH, ALXN, and AAPL are at all-time highs. As this weekly chart shows, TCO broke from a cup-with-handle base a few weeks ago. Click on chart to enlarge.

gmi: 6
gmi-2: 6
t2108: 86

24th day of QQQ short term up-trend; AAPL soars

Dr. Wish — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 12:00:09 +0000

Short and longer term trends remain up. On Tuesday, 285 stocks hit new 52 week highs and only 17 hit new lows. As this monthly chart shows, AAPL continues to soar.

gmi: 6
gmi-2: 6
t2108: 83

23rd day of QQQ short term up-trend; leveraged 3X ETF’s shine again

Dr. Wish — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 12:00:14 +0000

Since the GMI flashed a by signal on December 23rd, the QQQ has advanced +7.8%, the QLD +16% and the TYH +24.7%. In the same period, 30% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have advanced 10% or more and only 5% have advanced more than 23%. Yet again, we find that riding a triple leveraged ETF in an up-trend beats almost all other stocks. Why do we search for the rare stock that will outperform the 3X leveraged ETF , like TYH! Another leveraged ETF that did as well as TYH during this period is TQQQ. In fact the leveraged ETF, SOXL, advanced +34.4%!

gmi: 6
gmi-2: 6
t2108: 83

22nd day of QQQ short term up-trend

Dr. Wish — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 12:00:44 +0000

GMI remains at 6 (of 6). T2108 is still in overbought territory, as is the QQQ daily 10.4.4 stochastics, now at 86. Gold (GLD ETF) still appears to be headed higher. With earnings season almost over, we could enter a period of retracement and consolidation. The key is to wait for a signal rather than to act in advance.

gmi: 6
gmi-2: 6
t2108: 85

21st day of QQQ short term up-trend; GLD breaks down-trend

Dr. Wish — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 13:04:02 +0000

The up-trend in the QQQ continues. I have written about the probable down-trend in gold, as measured by its ETF, GLD. However, you can see from this daily chart that GLD broke its down-trend on Wednesday on above average volume. Since I already own an in-the-money put option on GLD, I have purchased 100 shares of GLD, which are now protected by my put option. When I buy an in-the-money put option, and the stock reverses, I can always just buy the shares and keep the put option as insurance against a resumption of the down-trend. If the stock resumes its down-trend I can just sell the shares and retain the put option. Click on this daily chart of GLD to enlarge.

gmi: 6
gmi-2: 6
t2108: 85

20th day of QQQ short term up-trend; T2108 at 86%, yearly chart shows market extremes

Dr. Wish — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 14:44:51 +0000

Some QQQ short term up-trends have lasted as long as 80 days. However, one warning sign that this market is getting frothy is that the T2108 is at 86%. While the T2108 indicator can remain at this overbought level for a few weeks, it nevertheless is near the highest level that it reaches. The yearly chart below shows the range of the T2108 since its inception in 1986 by the Worden Group. The red and green horizontal lines show the typical extreme levels that have been reached. In 1987 and 2008 the T2108 reached into rare single digit territory below 5%. At the other extreme, there are a few years when the T2108 has reached close to 93%. The current reading near 86% is therefore relatively rare. I become cautious as the market approaches the red line and wish I had the courage to become bullish when it reaches the green line. The trouble is that when the T2108 approaches single digits, the news is terrible and the markets are in a panic phase. If I follow the GMI and am in cash, it is easier, but not easy, to buy when the market is extremely oversold. By the way, the T2108 measures the percentage of NYSE stocks that closed above their simple average of their closes of the past 40 days. T2108 is updated each day as part of the Worden charting program. Click on chart to enlarge. To me, the T2108 is an excellent pendulum of market sentiment.

gmi: 6
gmi-2: 6
t2108: 86

19th day of QQQ short term up-trend; GLD at resistance

Dr. Wish — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 12:00:14 +0000

GMI remains at 6. Is it time to call this a resumption of the bull market?! This daily chart of GLD suggests that gold is at resistance. Will it resume its down-trend or break through?

gmi: 6
gmi-2: 6
t2108: 84

18th day of QQQ short term up-trend; RWB stock: TCO

Dr. Wish — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 12:00:37 +0000

GMI remains at 6 but T2108 is in overbought territory, at 84%. Fourteen stocks came up on my 52 week high with good earnings scan:

CMG,TCO,WPZ,ASPS,HIBB,SIX,LECO,WYN,PZZA,AIT,CALM,FWRD,SE,INTC

TCO appears to be a RWB stock breaking from a base. Click on chart to enlarge.

gmi: 6
gmi-2: 6
t2108: 84

QQQ short term up-trend reaches 16th day

Dr. Wish — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 13:00:04 +0000

With the Worden T2108 at 83% and 95% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closing above their 30 day averages, I am reluctant to take on more long positions now. I am selling calls on long positions and waiting for a drop to support to increase my long positions. Longer term up-trend is up but I suspect we are in for the usual post-earnings release lull.

gmi: 6
gmi-2: 6
t2108: 83