GMI: 0; GMI-R: 0; 19th day of QQQQ down-trend; Nicolas Darvas on staying out of bear markets
My two GMI indicators remain at zero. Friday was the 19th day of the current QQQQ down-trend. There were only 5 new highs and 189 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday. The Worden T2108 indicator is at 22%.
I have been writing about how I remain largely in cash during market declines. A lot of people think highly of Nicolas Darvas, who made a fortune in about two years of trading in the 1950’s (see favorite book list to lower right). In his later book written in 1977, Darvas wrote:
“Of course there are exceptions to the rules. There have been any number of stocks that have multiplied in price manyfold in a bear market, just as there are plenty of stocks that have hardly moved in a bull market. But my temperament is such that I prefer to be safe than sorry. So I keep out of a bear market and leave such exceptional stocks to those who don’t mind risking their money against the market trend.” (You Can Still Make It In The Market, 1977, p. 126).
I too have found my odds of profting are much better if I trade consistent with the market trend. So, I remain mainly in cash and hold a few puts in my IRA.
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