GMI: 6; No longer long stocks; QID
The GMI held to 6 Tuesday–barely. Another down day in the QQQQ will reduce the GMI at least one point. Note there were only 126 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. 
Only 46% of the 514 stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago closed higher on Tuesday than they did 10 days earlier. Failure of new highs to hold up is a sign of market weakness. Only 37% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced, along with 57-60% of the S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks. The Nasdaq 100 stocks are clearly lagging. Only 49% of them closed above their 30 day averages, the lowest percentage since this rally began in mid-August, and well down from a peak of 88% reached in October. The IBD 100 list from 12/18 did better on Tuesday, 54% of them advanced and 72% remain above their 30 day averages. RIMM fell on Tuesday, but GOOG and AAPL bounced…….
I am sorry, but I don’t like this market and I have told you I am a chicken. It has been 17 days since the QQQQ hit a recovery high, the longest such stretch since this up-turn began in mid-August. Tuesday was the 86th day of the current up-trend in the QQQQ. The MACD for the QQQQ continues to decline. I am out of all of my longs, and holding a small pilot position in the QID. QID will rise if the QQQQ declines. Meanwhile, I will earn 5% interest in a money market fund as I wait for a clear trend.
Comments ( 1 Comment )
Phil added these pithy words on Wed, 12-20-06 at 7:58 pmHey Dr. Wish, I was wondering if you knew what happened to QLD today to make it drop all the way to 83. Thankfully I was out of that security by last week, but why would it just drop like that when the QQQQ only dropped slightly?
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